Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Colts -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Colts 29, Jaguars 18.5
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence: After struggling through a 31-7 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8, Lawrence briefly left the Jaguars’ Week 9 game against the Bills but returned to finish out Jacksonville’s 9-6 upset victory. Over his last two games, Lawrence has averaged just 4.45 yards per pass attempt. The rookie hasn’t thrown more than one TD pass in a game since Week 1. He gets a fairly soft matchup this week against a Colts pass defense that’s yielded a league-high 23 TD passes and is giving up 21.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but Lawrence is still just a low-end QB2 this week.
Carson Wentz: Wentz has no shortage of critics, but he’s thrown multiple TD passes in six consecutive games, and he’s been the QB7 in fantasy scoring since Week 4. Now he gets to face a Jaguars pass defense that ranks dead last in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and is giving up 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Wentz profiles as a low-end QB1 this week, and at only $5,900 on DraftKings, he’s one of the best QB values on the board.
Running Backs
James Robinson and Carlos Hyde: Robinson is a good bet to return this week after missing Week 9 with a heel contusion, and the Jaguars could certainly use him. They face a Colts’ run defense that ranks second in DVOA and has only given up two TD runs this season. Robinson had scored at least one touchdown in four straight games before getting hurt in Week 8. He’s a high-end RB2 this week. Hyde, who had 21-67-0 rushing in Robinson’s absence last week, isn’t playable in fantasy unless Robinson misses another game.
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: After going without a touchdown in his first three games of the season, Taylor has scored nine TDs in his last six games. Since Week 4, Taylor has averaged 145.5 yards per scrimmage and 224.5 fantasy points per game, making him the RB1 over that stretch (0.5 PPR). He’s currently the RB2 behind only Derrick Henry. If we were drafting today, Taylor should be the 1.01. He’s the RB1 this week and a worthy cash-game cornerstone on DraftKings at a cost of $8,100. Hines entered Week 8 as the RB52 for the season in half-point PPR but had 6-74-1 rushing and 4-34-0 receiving against the Jets to finish as the RB5 for the week. Taylor’s generous usage in the passing game has drained a lot of Hines’ fantasy value this season, but Hines out-targeted Taylor 6-2 in Week 9. Still not trustworthy for fantasy purposes, Hines is just a low-end RB3, even in another four-team bye week and in a soft matchup against the Jaguars.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Jones: The arrival of TE Dan Arnold via trade in late September and the emergence of Jamal Agnew in October have really dinged Jones’ fantasy value. Jones has scored one touchdown since Week 3 and has finished with 35 or fewer receiving yards in four of his last five games. He has a soft matchup against the Colts this week, but it’s hard to project Jones as anything but a low-end WR3.
Laviska Shenault: Shenault is still looking for his first touchdown of 2021, and he’s only topped 58 yards once this season. In Week 10, Shenault faces a Colts defense that’s giving up 27.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but it’s hard to find much optimism here. Shenault checks in at WR51.
Jamal Agnew: Agnew played 10 or fewer offensive snaps in each of the Jaguars’ first four games. In the four games since, he’s averaged 43 snaps a game in the sort of hybrid WR/RB role that Percy Harvin used to play for Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer back when Urb was coaching the Florida Gators. Agnew’s weekly fantasy finishes in 0.5 PPR scoring since he became a regular in the Jacksonville offense: WR41, WR30, WR19, WR54. He’s been targeted 30 times over that span and has 20-184-1 receiving and 2-19-0 rushing. Agnew falls into WR5 range in this week’s rankings, but there’s intriguing PPR upside here.
Michael Pittman: Pittman got his fifth TD catch of the season in Week 9, and all of them have come in his last five games. He finished with 5-64-1 against the Jets and managed to finish as the WR13 in fantasy scoring for the week even though the game script was less than ideal for him, with the Colts racing out to a 28-10 halftime lead and running the ball on nearly half of their offensive plays. Pittman is the WR9 for the season and has entrenched himself as a must-start for fantasy. He’s the WR12 in this week’s rankings and a screaming DraftKings value at only $6,300.
T.Y. Hilton: A concussion sidelined Hilton for Week 9, but he’s expected back for Week 10. He’s played only two games this season and has 6-96-0 on 10 targets. He’ll be a risky midrange WR4 who might be worth flex consideration in deeper leagues.
Zach Pascal: Pascal is the discount Tim Patrick – a competent pass catcher who’s consistently involved, but with fewer splash plays and a lesser overall impact. If T.Y. Hilton is able to play this week, Pascal will be unplayable in all but the deepest of leagues. If Hilton remains out with a concussion, Pascal will be a usable WR4.
Tight Ends
Dan Arnold: Arnold has seen 30 targets over his last four games with the Jaguars, and he’s had between 60 and 68 receiving yards in three of those contests. It’s compelling usage, and it makes Arnold a high-end TE2 this week against a Colts defense that’s giving up 10.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Mo Alie-Cox: He’s only averaging 2.9 targets a game this season, but Alie-Cox has done a lot of damage despite the sparse usage, with 14-205-4 on the season. He’s scored touchdowns on 28.6% of his receptions and is averaging 14.6 yards per catch. Alie-Cox is a midrange TE2 this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 30.5, Washington 21
Quarterback
Tom Brady: The Washington Football Team is giving up 27.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the highest total in the league, 5.1 points per game worse than the next-worst team against quarterbacks, the Chiefs. Brady against the NFL’s worst defensive backfield? It feels like a gargantuan mismatch. The potential catch is that Brady figures to be without WR Antonio Brown (ankle) and TE Rob Gronkowski (back), and might also be without Chris Godwin (foot). Even with a depleted pass-catching arsenal, Brady should be able to post fine fantasy numbers against the Football Team. He checks in at QB3 this week. His DraftKings price of $7,600 is a bit too rich considering the injuries to his pass catchers and his lack of rushing potential.
Taylor Heinicke: In his first three starts in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, Heinicke was the QB8 in fantasy scoring. He’s thrown three TD passes and six interceptions in the four games since, averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt over that span. In Week 10, Heinicke faces a pass-funnel Buccaneers defense against whom opponents are throwing 68% of the time. But it’s not as if opposing quarterbacks have fully cashed in on the increased volume against Tampa. The Bucs are allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt, the sixth-lowest total in the league. Heinicke ranks QB16 this week. His supersaver DraftKings price of $5,400 coupled with the promise of high passing volume makes him an intriguing play.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette: Fournette was the RB10 in half-point PPR scoring through Week 7 before being bottled up by a tough Saints defense in Week 8 and going on bye in Week 9. He remains the Buccaneers’ lead running back and should get plenty of touches in a game where the Buccaneers are favored by more than a touchdown. He’s a high-end RB2 this week and a solid DraftKings option at $6,100.
J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson: Did the Week 9 bye do any good for Gibson’s ailing leg? It’s hard to imagine how, since a stress fracture in one’s shin isn’t going to heal that quickly. Gibson has averaged 10.7 carries over his last three games, and we probably shouldn’t expect a return to his more substantial early-season workload after one extra week of rest. Gibson also has a tough matchup against a Buccaneers defense that’s very good against the run. Opponents sometimes don’t even bother trying to run against the Bucs and have passed on 68% of their offensive plays this season. Gibson is merely a midrange RB3 this week – quite the fall from grace for a running back who was being drafted near the first round/second round turn back in August. McKissic has the more bankable role as Washington’s pass-catching back, particularly against a pass-funnel defense. McKissic is the RB29 in half-point PPR scoring for the season and checks in as the RB29 in this week’s rankings as well.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin: The Buccaneers have been dealing with a rash of injuries to their pass-catchers, and Godwin may be the latest casualty. He’s dealing with a foot injury that leaves his Week 10 status up in the air. This is a cruel injury for Godwin stakeholders. The ace slot receiver has had 16-251-2 on 23 targets over his last two games and was set up with a smash spot against a woeful Washington secondary. If Godwin plays, he’ll be a top-10 WR option unless he’s on some sort of snap count.
Mike Evans: If Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski are all out this week, Evans is an excellent bet to see double-digit targets this weekend against Washington, which may have the NFL’s worst defensive backfield. Brown and Gronk are almost certainly out, and Evans should see ample targets even if Godwin plays (he’s considered a game-time call). Evans has been TD-dependent this season, but the touchdowns keep coming. He has eight touchdowns on the season and three multiple-TD games. Evans hasn’t topped 76 receiving yards in any of his last three games, but he has four TD catches over that stretch. He’s a midrange WR1 this week.
Tyler Johnson: If Chris Godwin misses Week 10 with a foot injury, Johnson, a talented second-year receiver from the University of Minnesota, becomes an intriguing option in season-long leagues and (especially) DFS.
Terry McLaurin: It’s been a boom-or-bust season for Washington’s best pass catcher. McLaurin has had three 100-yard games, but he’s had five scoreless games with 62 or fewer yards. Although opponents have thrown on the Buccaneers 68% of the time, the Bucs haven’t been especially generous to opposing wide receivers, mainly because Tampa’s opponents are targeting RBs and TEs on 44.1% of their throws. McLaurin ranks WR16 but is a DraftKings fade at $7,600.
Tight Ends
O.J. Howard: In the four games that Rob Gronkowski has missed this year, Howard has 9-77-1 on 14 targets. Even with Gronk about to miss another game with a back injury, Howard is just a midrange TE2.
Ricky Seals-Jones: Logan Thomas isn’t ready to return from a hamstring injury, so Ricky Seals-Jones lands in high-end TE2 range. He’s had 17-162-1 in the four games Thomas has missed.
Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Patriots 23.25, Browns 21.75
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is averaging a career-best 8.5 yards per pass attempt, and he’s completing a career-high 66.7% of his passes. The efficiency hasn’t translated to fantasy success, however. Mayfield ranks QB25 in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks who’ve made at least five starts. It’s mostly about volume: Mayfield is averaging only 28.1 pass attempts per game. The Browns want to run the ball as much as possible, and it’s easy to do when they get a positive game script, as they did last week in a 41-16 blowout of the Bengals. The Browns only ran 44 offensive plays in that game, and Mayfield attempted only 21 passes. He managed to salvage a respectable fantasy point total with hyper-efficiency, turning 14 completions into 218 yards and two TDs. The passing volume could go up for Mayfield this week with Nick Chubb on the COVID-19 list and Kareem Hunt still out with a calf injury. Mayfield is the QB22 this week against a good New England pass defense that has more interceptions (13) than TD passes allowed (12).
Mac Jones: Jones only needed to throw 18 passes last week in the Patriots’ comfortable 24-6 win over the Panthers, so he wound up laying an egg for fantasy purposes, with 139 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception. Jones’ week-to-week fantasy production has been unpredictable, and while the rookie has been satisfyingly competent, he’s still just a low-end QB2 for fantasy purposes. His neutral matchup against the Browns this week doesn’t move the needle one way or the other.
Running Backs
D’Ernest Johnson: With Nick Chubb landing on the COVID-19 list this week and Kareem Hunt still sidelined with a calf injury, Johnson should be in for an all-you-can-eat carry buffet Sunday against the Patriots. We saw something similar in Week 7, when Chubb and Hunt were both out and Johnson had 22-146-1 rushing in a Thursday-night game against a seemingly disinterested Broncos defense, finishing with 23.8 fantasy points. There was a lot of debate about Johnson within the fantasy community in the run-up to that game. His lack of pedigree (Johnson was a committee back at the University of South Florida who went undrafted) made a lot of people skeptical, but volume is king at the RB position. With Johnson in line for heavy volume again this week, he lands at RB11 in the rankings. Johnson is a free square in DraftKings contests, where he’s priced at only $4,700.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden: Stevenson and Damien Harris both sustained concussions in Week 9. Harris has already been ruled out, and as of Saturday afternoon, Stevenson’s status remained uncertain. Stevenson has been getting more work lately. He’s an intriguing rookie who scored five touchdowns in three preseason games and had a season-high 106 yards from scrimmage in last week’s win over the Panthers. With James White out for the season, the Patriots have been using Bolden as their passing-down back. Bolden isn’t fantasy-relevant under normal circumstances, but the injury to Harris makes Bolden fantasy-viable for Week 10. If Stevenson ends up being out, too, the New England backfield will belong to Bolden and J.J. Taylor for Week 10. Bolden would almost become a must-play in that scenario.
Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry: A target and reception monster early in his career, Landry has become just another possession receiver in Cleveland. Strangely, Landry’s fantasy value has been largely unaffected by Odell Beckham Jr.’s presence or lack thereof. The Browns released OBJ last week, and Landry produced only 3-11-0 on five targets against the Bengals in Week 10. Obviously, the fact that the Browns were in control for most of that game and won a 41-16 blowout held down their passing volume. But Landry simply isn’t the PPR machine he used to be. That said, there could be heavier target volume for Landry this week with Beckham gone for good and RBs Nick Chubb (COVID-19) and Kareem Hunt (calf) both out. Landry profiles as a low-end WR3 this week. He’s an intriguing DraftKings play at a sale price of $5,200.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: The waiver wire enthusiasm for Peoples-Jones this week was understandable considering that DPJ has produced 11-257-3 over his last three games. But does People-Jones have a sustainable business model? As good as he’s been in his last three contests, he’s seen only 14 targets over that stretch. DPJ is averaging 20.9 yards per catch and 17.4 yards per target. That sort of hyper-efficiency is unsustainable, particularly with Peoples-Jones having an average depth of target of 17.4 yards in his role as a designated lid-lifter. The Browns’ deep passing game works because their running game is so good, but DPJ’s numbers are fluky nonetheless. He’s likely to get a lot of face time with Patriots shutdown corner J.C. Jackson this week, so Peoples-Jones is merely a boom-or-bust option at WR50 in this week’s rankings.
Jakobi Meyers: The season has taken a downward turn for Meyers. He was reasonably useful for fantasy purposes early in the season due entirely to target volume. For the first four weeks of the season, Meyers averaged 10.3 targets and 6.8 catches a game. Since Week 5, Meyers has averaged 6.2 targets and 3.8 catches. Averaging 9.4 yards per catch and highly allergic to touchdowns, Meyers needs heavy targets to make his bones in fantasy, and he’s simply not getting it. He’s the WR51 for Week 10 and droppable in standard-scoring leagues.
Nelson Agholor: Agholor was shut out against the Panthers last week – not a big surprise with the Patriots attempting only 18 passes in an easy 24-6 win over the Panthers. But Agholor is averaging only 4.7 targets a game as the designated deep-ball artist for a team that doesn’t throw deep very often. Agholor is a low-end WR5 this week against the Browns.
Tight Ends
David Njoku and Austin Hooper: Njoku is averaging 16.2 yards per catch and has occasionally popped off some big plays this season, but he hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game since Week 5. Such sporadic usage makes him hard to trust for fantasy, so he’s merely a low-end TE2 against a Patriots defense that’s only giving up 4.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. The Browns’ use of three tight ends has pretty much obliterated Hooper’s fantasy value. He’s averaging 3.3 targets per game and has an average depth of target of just 4.1 yards – not a recipe for fantasy relevance.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: Henry has scored five touchdowns in his last six games, but the TD production masks a decrease in target volume. Henry averaged 5.2 targets per game over the Patriots’ first five games but has averaged just 3.0 targets per game over their last four. The unsteady usage makes Henry a high-end TE2 this week. Smith has been a fantasy dud to this point. He’s scored one touchdown and averages 5.4 yards per target on 3.8 targets per game. He ranks TE25 this week and is only rosterable in deep leagues at this point.
Atlanta Falcons vs Dallas Cowboys
Date/Time: Sunday November 14, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cowboys -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys 31.75, Falcons 22.75
Quarterback
Matt Ryan: It was a bumpy start to the season, but the Falcons’ offense is finally clicking entering a Week 10 showdown with the Cowboys. Incredibly, Ryan ranks first in EPA per play among all quarterbacks since Week 3. This coincides with an increased use of play action. In Weeks 1-2 Ryan utilized the concept on just 23% of dropbacks. Since then? He’s at 30.5%. We know his limitations at this stage of his career; like most aging pocket passers, Ryan struggles with pressure. PFF ranks Dallas’ pass rush as 10th in the NFL this season. Yet the (likely) up-tempo game environment keeps him in play as a low-end QB1 streamer in Jerry World.
Dak Prescott: Perhaps he was rusty coming off the calf injury, or maybe the team just ran into a fired-up Denver buzzsaw. Either way, both Prescott and the Cowboys are positioned for a major bounce back against the Falcons. It’s no secret that Dallas has an elite offensive line. Furthermore, Atlanta’s pass rush ranks dead last in PFF’s grades this season. Prescott should have all day to throw in this one. We know the Cowboys lean run-heavy in neutral game scripts, but elite efficiency and the opportunity for several touchdowns will keep him afloat as a mid-range QB1 in Week 10.
Running Backs
Cordarrelle Patterson: It wasn’t easy to shed my priors to accept C-Patt as a legitimate RB1/2 in fantasy football, but here we are. His unique versatility combined with Atlanta’s dearth of playmakers has rendered him invaluable to the offense, and the RB/WR dual-eligibility inflates his fantasy value in season-long formats. We’re past the point of worrying about his touch totals on a week-to-week basis. Fire him up as a matchup-agnostic RB2 rest-of-season.
Mike Davis: The poster boy for this year’s Running Back Dead Zone, Davis’ usage has evaporated in recent weeks. Dallas is more attackable on the ground (15th in EPA per rush vs 4th in EPA per dropback), but Patterson has taken so much work from Davis. The former Panther is a TD-dependent, low-end RB3 against the Cowboys.
Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott totaled 13 touches in Week 9 and it was the first time his touch count was below 20 since Week 2. He dealt with a knee contusion during the loss to Denver, however. Coach Mike McCarthy wasn’t concerned about it affecting his Week 10 availability. Atlanta ranks 23rd in EPA per rush while PFF gives him the 20th ranked run defense this season. This one is simple. It’s a strong matchup for Elliott, who should continue to be valued as a high-end RB1.
Tony Pollard: All the above notes about this being a strong matchup for Elliott apply to Pollard as well, who received more run than usual while Zeke dealt with his minor knee issue. Continue to treat Pollard as a weekly FLEX option who has RB1 upside should anything more serious happen to Elliott.
Wide Receivers
Russell Gage: The 25-year-old has posted two top-24 finishes over the past three weeks. Of course, that third game was disastrous as Gage wasn’t even targeted, but he was also dealing with injury. He’s a fine/meh/inconsistent player in deeper leagues. Tajae Sharpe, meanwhile, can be left on waivers.
CeeDee Lamb: Dallas’ preference of running the ball in neutral game scripts has kept Lamb’s Year 2 breakout in check. Instead, he’s living on efficiency, and the Week 9 results couldn’t have been much worse in this regard. Lamb caught just 2-of-9 targets for 23 yards, though Prescott barely missed him on multiple big-play opportunities. The ultra-talented wideout continues to be worth betting on as a WR2.
Amari Cooper: It’ll be important to monitor Cooper’s practice reports this week. Against the Broncos on Sunday he ran a route on just 59% of Dallas’ dropbacks due to his hamstring issue. Fantasy managers should expect the Cowboys to run the ball in neutral game scripts, which means Cooper will need to live on efficiency and end zone production. Consider him a low-end WR2 given the hamstring concerns.
Michael Gallup: Slated to return from IR this weekend, Gallup has been out since Week 1 due to his calf injury. The Cowboys will likely ease him back in as this doesn’t project to be a pass-heavy game for them. Until we get some utilization data, Gallup is a bench stash in season-long leagues, albeit one who needs to be rostered everywhere.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: The star rookie has had a couple of down weeks since Calvin Ridley left the team, which might lead you to think that Pitts needs another playmaker to take defensive attention away. Admittedly, he probably profiles better as a No. 2 receiving option right now. Remember, he only has eight games of experience in the NFL! Nonetheless, his utilization remains elite. Pitts has still been targeted on over 20% of his routes in Weeks 8-9, and he’s due for positive-TD regression with just one score on the season. Buy low.
Dalton Schultz: After some downright thrilling early-season performance, Schultz has settled into more of a low-end TE1 entering Week 10. On the one hand, his routes spiked to 91% with Blake Jarwin landing on IR. On the other hand, Schultz’s targets could become more sporadic with the return of Gallup. Similar to Tyler Higbee and the Rams, playing Schultz in fantasy is a cheap way to invest in one of the best offenses in the league.
This season, the Primer is presented by Pristine Auction. They are going to be providing giveaways throughout the season. See below for how to win a signed D’Andre Swift jersey!
