As we prepare for building full slate GPP lineups for Week 10, the island games don’t seem to offer much appeal outside of a couple of positions, tight end, and defense. So, most of the focus around our Week 10 stacks and running backs shift to the main slate of games during the day on Sunday.
We also might be able to take advantage of a lack of news in a couple of spots when building our full week lineups, as many people just set it and forget it on Thursday and focus too much attention on playing players in the island games. So let’s get after the NFL GPP lineup advice for Week 10.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 10 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,100 vs. SEA
After missing last week’s game, question marks if he will get cleared to play this week, and all the vaccine controversy and discussion around Rodgers, look for his ownership to be low on the full week slate. So, of course, that means it is the perfect time to use him in GPPs, assuming he does get cleared to play.
He has a good game environment in a potentially high-scoring affair against the Seahawks, who get Russell Wilson back this week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks pass defense has allowed 287 passing yards (27th) per game and ranks 24th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) according to FootballOutsiders. If Rodgers doesn’t play, I’d even consider rolling with Jordan Love ($5,100) in a GPP. Nobody will be on him, and he should be more comfortable playing at home in his second start.
As we prepare for building full slate GPP lineups for Week 10, the island games don’t seem to offer much appeal outside of a couple of positions, tight end, and defense. So, most of the focus around our Week 10 stacks and running backs shift to the main slate of games during the day on Sunday.
We also might be able to take advantage of a lack of news in a couple of spots when building our full week lineups, as many people just set it and forget it on Thursday and focus too much attention on playing players in the island games. So let’s get after the NFL GPP lineup advice for Week 10.
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 10 full slates:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,100 vs. SEA
After missing last week’s game, question marks if he will get cleared to play this week, and all the vaccine controversy and discussion around Rodgers, look for his ownership to be low on the full week slate. So, of course, that means it is the perfect time to use him in GPPs, assuming he does get cleared to play.
He has a good game environment in a potentially high-scoring affair against the Seahawks, who get Russell Wilson back this week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks pass defense has allowed 287 passing yards (27th) per game and ranks 24th DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) according to FootballOutsiders. If Rodgers doesn’t play, I’d even consider rolling with Jordan Love ($5,100) in a GPP. Nobody will be on him, and he should be more comfortable playing at home in his second start.
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $6,200 vs. NO
With Derrick Henry out, the Titans’ offense will shift a little more pass-centric, whether by design or necessity. This week against the Saints’ strong run defense that ranks 1st DVOA, Tannehill and the Titans will need to pass the ball to succeed.
The Saints have allowed 283 passing yards (25th) and 1.8 touchdown passes (21st) per game over the last five weeks while allowing 8.52 yards per attempt (31st) during that stretch. Add in some rushing potential in the red zone (he has scored on the ground in three of the last four weeks), and Tannehill could be poised for a spike game.
Other notables: Tom Brady (TB): $7,600 vs. WAS, Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,900 vs. ATL
FanDuel
Tom Brady (TB): $8,300 vs. WAS
Brady has already been crushing it this season and has tossed at least four touchdown passes in three of his last four games. Now, he gets a dream matchup against a pass-funnel Washington defense that has been good against the run but has been shredded through the air.
Washington has allowed a league-high 299 passing yards per game to go along with 2.5 touchdown passes (31st) and rank 31st DVOA against the pass this season. The condensed target tree (more on that in the wide receiver section) makes a Brady stack a near must-have in some GPP lineups.
Justin Herbert (LAC): $8,000 vs. MIN
The raw numbers this season and DVOA ranking (3rd) for the Vikings pass defense are still an illusion for a depleted secondary that has been getting lit up the last two weeks. The Vikings have allowed an average of 296 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game over the previous two weeks to the combo of Cooper Rush and Lamar Jackson.
Next up, they face an actual legit passing quarterback in Herbert, who has thrown for over 300 yards four times this season and has tossed multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six games. Herbert and the Chargers will also be home in a great game environment against a Vikings team that always seems to keep it close and high scoring when they play on the road.
Other notables: Aaron Rodgers (GB): $7,800 vs. SEA, Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $7,400 vs. NO
Running Backs
DraftKings
Dalvin Cook (MIN): $8,000 vs. LAC
I guess my DraftKings recommendations this week love controversy and being in the news with Rodgers and now Cook. Assuming his off-field domestic dispute doesn’t affect his immediate playing status, Cook is in a blow-up spot this week against the Chargers.
The Chargers rush defense ranks dead last in DVOA and has allowed 146 yards (32nd) and 2.25 touchdowns (31st) per game in the previous five weeks. Cook has a floor of about 20 touches that could spike up to around 30 in a potential back and forth shootout with one of the highest Vegas totals on the slate.
D’Ernest Johnson (CLE): $4,700 vs. NE
Johnson might turn into a chalky option by Sunday with the entire Browns backfield either hurt or in Covid 19 protocols. But, even if he does become the chalky must-have running back, he still might be good chalk if he gets 100 percent of the work against an average Patriots run defense that ranks 17th DVOA.
However, the passing game is where Johnson could pay off, as the Patriots have allowed a league-high 8.8 receptions and 85 yards per game through the air to pass-catching backs over the last five weeks. Johnson put up 27.8 DraftKings points with 24 touches in his one start this season and could see a repeat performance this week.
Other notables: Austin Ekeler (LAC): $7,600 vs. MIN, Aaron Jones (GB): $6,900 vs. SEA, James Connor (ARI): $6,300 vs. CAR
FanDuel
Aaron Jones (GB): $8,200 vs. SEA
I think Jones will garner quite a bit of ownership on DraftKings but could fall into a little bit of a pricing black hole on FanDuel with Cook just $300 more and Ezekiel Elliott $200 cheaper. However, if Rodgers returns and Jones ownership projects to stay low on FanDuel, he is a great pivot to use in GPPs.
The matchup against the Seahawks has plenty of shootout potential if both Wilson and Rodgers start. In addition, the Seahawks have allowed a lot of production to running backs, including 106 rushing yards (25th) per game on the ground and 7.3 receptions (31st) for 70 yards (32nd) per game through the air. Add in the touchdown upside, and Jones could be in a smash spot at lower ownership.
Josh Jacobs (LV): $7,200 vs. KC
Look for the Raiders to try to ride the ground game in their matchup against the Chiefs on Sunday night. Jacobs has scored in three of his last four games and is coming off a game with 95 total scoreless yards where he had 17 touches.
The Chiefs run defense ranks 29th DVOA this season and has allowed 4.4 YPC (20th) to running backs this season. Jacobs tends to score touchdowns in bunches as he did in a matchup against the Chiefs last season.
Other notables: Najee Harris (PIT): $9,400 vs. DET, Dalvin Cook (MIN): $8,500 vs. LAC, Darrel Williams (KC): $6,000 vs. LV
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Davante Adams (GB): $7,900 vs. SEA
If Rodgers returns to the field this week, Adams might become a chalky option, but for those building full slate GPPs on Thursday, they might look away from Adams with Rodgers’ status up in the air. Take advantage of those lineups by preparing to use an underpriced Adams if Rodgers returns (and maybe even if he doesn’t).
Adams has hit double-digit points on DraftKings every week (yes, even last week in Love’s first start) and has posted GPP-level scores over 34 points twice this season. Regardless of the quarterback under center for the Packers on Sunday, Adams will get fed the ball with multiple touchdown upside. There is also an easy bring-it-back on the Seahawks side with an underpriced DK Metcalf with Russell Wilson back under center.
Julio Jones (TEN): $5,400 vs. NO
While I prefer AJ Brown ($7,800) over Jones, that price difference and ownership have me leaning toward taking a shot on Jones. Jones played on 74 percent of the Titans’ offense snap last week and reeled in all four of his targets.
He is one more week removed from his hamstring injury and should avoid the Saints’ top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, more often than Brown does. The Saints secondary as a whole has allowed an average of 14 receptions (26th) for 227 yards (32nd) and 1.5 touchdowns (30th) per game to wide receivers over the last five weeks.
Other notables: DK Metcalf (SEA): $6,800 vs. GB, Amari Cooper (DAL): $6,200 vs. ATL, Deonte Harris (NO): $4,000 vs. TEN
FanDuel
Mike Evans (TB): $7,400 vs. WAS
With Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski likely out on Sunday, the Buccaneers target tree has been narrowed down to Evans, and Chris Goodwin with a bit of Tyler Johnson sprinkled in. While I prefer Godwin on DraftKings due to his PPR ability, Evans is my Bucs wideout of choice on FanDuel due to his multi-touchdown upside.
Evans has scored six times over the last four weeks, including two multi-score games. The Washington secondary has allowed 15.8 receptions (31st) for 206 yards (30th) and a league-high 1.75 touchdowns per game to wide receivers this season. Also, you can easily bring it back on the Washington side with Terry McLaurin ($7,100).
Mike Williams (LAC): $6,900 vs. MIN
The rationale for using Williams over Keenan Allen is almost precisely the same as the reason above, where I recommended using Evans over Godwin. While Allen is a great PPR guy, give the touchdown upside on FanDuel that Williams possesses. I know he hasn’t shown it in the last three weeks, but that has also allowed his salary to dip and his ownership to likely be lower.
Williams did find the end zone six times over the first five games, and I’m expecting a bounce-back spot this week against a Vikings secondary that has allowed 15 receptions (28th) for 196 yards (29th) per game over the last five weeks and three touchdowns to wideouts over the previous two weeks. The Vikings have plenty of great bring-back options for mini game stacks.
Other notables: AJ Brown (TEN): $7,600 vs. NO, Justin Jefferson (MIN): $7,500 vs. LAC, Terry McLaurin (WAS): $7,100 vs. TB
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Mike Gesicki (MIA): $4,900 vs. BAL
The best thing about the island games this week is the plethora of tight-end plays available. It starts on Thursday night with Gesicki against a Ravens defense that has allowed 6.5 receptions (30th) for 74 yards (32nd) and 0.75 touchdowns (31st) per game to tight ends this season.
Add in the depleted receiving corp and potential of the Dolphins playing catchup, and Gesicki should see plenty of looks. He has had at least six targets in seven of the last eight games regardless of who was slinging him the rock and which continent he was playing in.
Other notables: Darren Waller (LV): $6,300 vs. KC, Noah Fant (DEN): $4,300 vs. PHI
FanDuel
Travis Kelce (TEAM): $7,500 vs. LV
Let’s stick with using a tight end from one of the island games theme by paying up for Kelce on Sunday night against the Raiders. After a three-game “break” from finding paydirt, Kelce revisited the end zone last week against the Packers.
The Raiders have been dominated by the tight end position this season, allowing 6.4 receptions (29th) for 67 yards (28th) and 0.6 touchdowns (26th) per game. Another six catches for 70 yards and at least one score seem like a lock for Kelce in this matchup.
Other notables: Mike Gesicki (MIA): $6,200 vs. BAL, Pat Freiermuth (PIT): $5,100 vs. DET
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Ravens (BAL): $3,200 vs. MIA
Another potential spot to utilize the island games is at defense. The Ravens are reasonably priced on DraftKings and should get a lot of pressure on whoever starts at quarterback for the Dolphins on Thursday. The Dolphins have allowed 2.6 sacks (21st) and 2.0 turnovers (30th) per game this season.
Other notables: Raiders (LV): $2,500 vs. KC, Vikings (MIN): $2,300 vs. LAC
FanDuel
Raiders (LV): $3,300 vs. KC
The Chiefs offense has struggled in recent weeks and has coughed up the ball 2.4 times per game (31st) over the last five weeks. Add in the Raiders pass rush that has produced three sacks per game (4th) in the previous five weeks, and there could be more mistakes coming for the Chiefs this week.
Other notables: Cowboys (DAL): $4,200 vs. ATL, Packers (GB): $3,900 vs. SEA
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