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Last week was a rough week for my value plays. Matt Ryan and Hunter Renfrow were a couple of my better calls, but guys like Tajae Sharpe, Bryan Edwards, and Derrick Gore barely made a blip on the radar. You win some, and you lose some. Let’s hope we can win this week.
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Quarterback
DraftKings
Carson Wentz (IND) $5,900 vs. JAX
I don’t need to tell you that the Jags are a bad team… but I’ll let you know anyway… they are dead last in pass defense DVOA. Wentz has thrown at least two touchdowns in every game since Week 4, including three touchdown, passes in each of his last two games.
FanDuel
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) $6,900 vs. TB
To beat the Bucs, you have to beat them through the passing game — their run defense is one of the best in the league. Coming out of the bye week, the Football Team hopes to get a few guys healthy, including wide receiver Curtis Samuel and running back Antonio Gibson. Gibson has been playing hurt for weeks, and it has shown in his lack of production. On the other hand, Heinicke played well against this Bucs team last season in the playoffs, so that the moment won’t be too big for him.
Honorable Mention: Mac Jones (NE) $6,500 vs. CLE
Running Back
DraftKings
Devin Singletary (BUF) $4,700 @ NYJ
As it stands now, Zach Moss is not practicing as he is in the concussion protocol. The Bills realized last week that they would need to establish some running game to beat the two-deep shell defense that teams are playing against them. The two-deep shell takes away guys like Stefon Diggs and Emanuel Sanders as the defense keeps everything in front of them. That’s what the Jags ran almost exclusively last week, and we saw how that ended. The best way to beat a 2-deep shell is to run the ball. If Moss is out and Singletary gets the full workload, at $4,700, he could have a big game against a lowly Jets team that ranks 31st DVOA against the run.
Brandon Bolden (NE) $4,400 vs. CLE
Honorable Mention: Eno Benjamin (ARI) $4,400 vs. CAR
FanDuel
Jordan Howard (PHI) $5,900 @ DEN
Howard has been signed to the active roster and could still have relevance if and when Miles Sanders returns. Howard has something that the other running backs on the Eagles don’t have — or at least haven’t shown consistently — the ability to run between the tackles. Howard isn’t going to catch passes, he likely won’t bounce many runs outside, but as an inside runner, he thrives. He is a much better play on Fanduel than DraftKings with the half PPR scoring of FanDuel.
Eno Benjamin (ARI) $5,200 vs. CAR
Chase Edmonds is set to miss a few weeks with an ankle sprain, opening the door for the second-year running back. It’ll be interesting to see how he gets used because he is not a 1-for-1 replacement for Edmonds as Benjamin isn’t known as a pass-catcher. We’ve seen James Connor wear down and deal with nagging injuries in the past, so the Cardinals will likely keep the running back by committee approach, and Benjamin stands to benefit.
After a solid start to the season, the Panther’s defense isn’t playing as well in recent weeks, and their run defense has slipped to 19th in DVOA. Benjamin is a true dart throw, but he could find himself in the end zone again this week.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Bolden (NE) $5,100 vs. CLE
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Cole Beasley (BUF) $5,200 @ NYJ
Beasley has a whopping 24 targets over the last two games. Beasley lined up in the slot 78-percent of the time, which bodes well for his outlook this week. The Jets are 24th in DVOA against the slot receiver and 30th in pass defense DVOA overall. The Bills will be anxious to put last week’s game behind them, and unfortunately for the Jets, they’ll be playing the role of the punching bag.
Michael Gallup (DAL) $4,000 vs. ATL
Gallup will make his return from injury this week, and he couldn’t have picked a better matchup. The Falcons are 28th in pass-defense DVOA and dead last to the No. 2 outside wide receiver — where Gallup plays in three-wide sets when CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper move inside.
Honorable Mention: Jarvis Landry (CLE) $5,200 @ NE
FanDuel
Tim Patrick (DEN) $6,000 vs. PHI
Every week fantasy analysts ask the question, Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy? The answer, more often than not, it seems, is Tim Patrick. The Eagle’s secondary isn’t terrible, rankings 21st in pass defense DVOA, but they aren’t great either. Only once this season did Patrick have fewer than four targets, and he has scored double-digit DraftKings points in six of his nine games this season.
Micheal Gallup (DAL) $5,500 vs. ATL
See above.
Honorable Mention: Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) $5,500 @ DAL
Tight End
DraftKings
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) $3,100 vs. JAX
Value tight ends are getting hard to find these days, as DraftKings has done a good job pricing the tight ends correctly. Alie-Cox is by no means a sure thing, and he will have to score a touchdown to pay off his salary as he doesn’t get enough volume to get there without a score. The Jags are 28th in pass defense DVOA against the tight end position. Alie-Cox has four touchdowns this season, tied for the fourth-most in the league. There is a good chance he may get his fifth touchdown in this game.
Honorable Mention: OJ Howard (TB) $2,700 @ WAS
FanDuel
OJ Howard (TB) $4,600 @ WAS
Rob Gronkowski, as of Thursday, is still not practicing, and if he were to miss this game, Howard could be in for a lot of targets. The Football team is ranked 31st overall in passing defense DVOA. We know how much Tom Brady likes his tight ends in the red zone, and only the Colts have given up more red-zone touchdowns than the Football Team.
Honorable Mention: Mo Alie-Cox (IND) $4,800 vs. JAX
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