NBA DFS Primer: Wednesday (11/24)

This is my final article of the week because we have a rare off-day on Thursday! You all know why and I hope all of you enjoy your Thanksgiving Day festivities. I just want to take a moment and be thankful for sports in general. We take for granted how amazing it can be for us from a mental perspective, and I just want to show my gratitude for how impactful it’s been in my life!

After a slow four-game slate on Tuesday, we’re back to a full card here. We have 13 games making up this Wednesday slate, which is one of the largest totals of the season. That means all but four teams are in action, and it’s going to create a monstrous player pool. There’s a lot to discuss, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

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Schedule and Odds

• PHX at CLE (PHX -6.5) O/U: 209
• LAL at IND (IND -2) O/U: 218.5
• CHA at ORL (CHA -8.5) O/U: 219.5
• BKN at BOS (BKN -1) O/U: 216
• WAS at NOP (WAS -3.5) O/U: 209.5
• CHI at HOU (CHI -8.5) O/U: 213.5
• DET at MIL (MIL -15) O/U: 214.5
• MIA at MIN (MIA -2) O/U: 212.5
• UTA at OKC (UTA -13) O/U: 208.5
• TOR at MEM (MEM -4) O/U: 221.5
• ATL at SAS (ATL -4) O/U: 220
• PHI at GSW (GSW -10.5) O/U: 218.5
• POR at SAC (POR -2.5) O/U: 224

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Cole Anthony (ankle) OUT
• Darius Garland (neck) Questionable
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) OUT
• Devonte’ Graham (foot) Questionable
• Jaylen Brown (hamstring) Probable
• Caris LeVert (back) Questionable
• OG Anunoby (hip) Questionable
• Tobias Harris (hip) Questionable
• Evan Mobley (elbow) OUT
• Nikola Vucevic (COVID) Questionable
• Joel Embiid (COVID) OUT
• Ben Simmons (personal) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (personal) OUT
• Dillon Brooks (hamstring) Questionable
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• P.J. Washington (elbow) OUT

Core Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $12,200 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
I mean, what needs to be said here with Giannis? This is the best player in fantasy, and he’s on a hot streak. The Greek Freak has at least 66 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, getting his season average just shy of 60 DK points per game. That makes him tough to avoid, with Detroit owning a 28th OPRK against opposing power forwards this season. Despite a blowout in their last matchup, Giannis dropped 60 fantasy points,  playing fewer than 27 minutes.

Bradley Beal (SG – WAS): $9,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Beal is quietly having an All-Star season in Washington, averaging 41.3 DK points per game. His floor has been equally as impressive, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in five of his last six games. The best part is this matchup, though, with the Pelicans ranked 29th in defensive efficiency ratings. That makes the $9,400 price tag on DK a great value and the $8,500 tag on FanDuel laughable.

Fred VanVleet (PG/SG – TOR): $7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
If you haven’t been stacking players against Memphis, you should probably find a different hobby. The Grizzlies rank dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency, surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing guards this season. That makes FVV an excellent option, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games en route to a 41-point average in that stretch.

Cash Game Considerations

Pascal Siakam (PF/C – TOR): $8,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
We just talked about how bad the Grizzlies defense is, which makes Siakam a sexy pick. The big man has been stellar since his return, scoring at least 36 DK points in four of his last five games. He’s also had his usage bump recently, which is stellar news since OG Anunoby is expected to be out as well. Not to mention, Memphis owns a 27th OPRK against opposing centers this season.

De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel
Fox has struggled a bit this season, but his price has dropped a bit too far. This dude was $9K earlier in the season and played at that level for the final two months last year. We believe the Luke Walton firing should speed up the pace and get him rolling, which is scary since he’s still averaging over 35 DK points per game. We love that in this matchup, too, with Portland ranked 25th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. In their final two matchups last season, Fox averaged 30.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $7,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Capela is a cash-game lock on pretty much every slate. It’s his rebounding that makes him so reliable, recording a double-double in six of his last seven games. He’s scored at least 29 DraftKings points in all of those, averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game in that span. All of that makes him extremely enticing against the Spurs, with San Antonio sitting fifth in pace and 24th in points allowed.

GPP Targets

Mo Bamba (C – ORL): $6,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Mo has been one of the breakout players in fantasy basketball, averaging 32 DK points per game. He’s been doing a lot of that damage recently, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. He’s also shown 50-point upside, making him one of the best GPP targets on the board. A matchup with Charlotte is sensational, too, with the Hornets ranked third in pace and 28th in points allowed.

Jusuf Nurkic (C – POR): $6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
We talked about this yesterday, but Nurk has been one of the best per-minute producers in the NBA. The big man is averaging over 32 DK points per game in fewer than 24 minutes a night. That means if he stumbles into a 30-minute game, we could be looking at 40 fantasy points. That makes him intriguing against the Kings, with Sacramento owning a 22nd OPRK against opposing centers. Nurkic has scored at least 35 DK points in four of his last five meetings with Sacramento, posting a ridiculous 46-point average in those outings.

Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS): $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Poeltl did miss two weeks due to COVID, but it makes no sense why his price dropped this much. The big man was averaging 39.2 DK points per game through his first five fixtures, playing 33 minutes a night. In his return to action, he was held down in his first game but provided 28.3 DK points across 31 minutes in the most recent outing. That means he should return to that early-season form, which earned him a $7K price tag.

Value Plays

Derrick White (PG/SG – SAS): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
This is more pricing that I don’t understand. White is the second weapon on this Spurs offense, averaging over 27 DK points per game. That makes it hard to believe he’s barely cracking $5K, especially since he dropped 39 fantasy points in his most recent outing. He’s also lined up to face Trae Young here, and that’s spectacular since Trae is one of the worst defenders in the NBA.

Mason Plumlee (C – CHA): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
I’ve been riding this strategy of picking traditional centers against Orlando, and it always seems to work. The main reason for that is because the Magic start two centers, forcing the others team’s hand into more minutes from their bigs. That means Plumlee is a lock for 30 minutes, which is great news since he’s averaging 23.4 DK points per game across 26 minutes a night. Plumdog also has at least 30 fantasy points in all four games he’s played at least 30 minutes and shouldn’t have an issue here with Orlando sitting 28th in OPRK against opposing centers.

Kevin Huerter (SG/SF – ATL): $4,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Big Red has been slow to get going, but an injury to De’Andre Hunter has turned his season around. That has put Huerter back into the starting lineup, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in three straight games. That makes this sub-$5K price tag shocking, especially with San Antonio’s subpar defensive statistics.

Advantageous Pricing

• James Harden (PG/SG – BKN): $11,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
• Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,400 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
• LaMelo Ball (PG/SG – CHA): $10,700 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel
• Harrison Barnes (SF – SAC): $6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
• Bradley Beal (SG – WAS): $9,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
• Luguentz Dort (SG/SF – OKC): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

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