NBA DFS Primer: Wednesday (11/10)

Are you ready for one of the craziest slates of the season! I don’t believe we’ve had one this big, and it took me forever to examine this player pool. I feel like I have a good read on it, though, so let’s go ahead and get started!

After a meager three-game slate on Tuesday, we’re back to a full card here. It’s more than a full card, though, with 13 games making up this massive ledger. That’s one of the largest slates we’ve had all year, and it makes for a dense player pool. The injuries have been crazy this week, too, and it’ll surely open up some value on this slate. We do have 13 games to get into, though, so let’s kick things off with the schedule and odds!

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Schedule and Odds

• WAS at CLE (WAS -4) O/U: 212
• BKN at ORL (BKN -9.5) O/U: 209.5
• TOR at BOS (BOS -2) O/U: 208.5
• DET at HOU (HOU -1.5) O/U: 210.5
• MIL at NYK (NYK -2.5) O/U: 216
• OKC at NOP (NOP -4.5) O/U: 211.5
• DAL at CHI (CHI -3) O/U: 212
• CHA at MEM (MEM -4.5) O/U: 228.5
• SAC at SAS (SAC -1) O/U: 221
• IND at DEN (IND -2) O/U: 213.5
• POR at PHX (PHX -6) O/U: 220.5
• MIN at GSW (GSW -6.5) O/U: 221.5
• MIA at LAL (MIA -3.5) O/U: 214

Injury Report

• Collin Sexton (knee) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (Vax) OUT
• Jaylen Brown (hamstring) OUT
• Khris Middleton (COVID) OUT
• Brook Lopez (back) OUT
• Mitchell Robinson (hip) Questionable
• Nerlens Noel (knee) Questionable
• Brandon Ingram (HIP) Questionable
• Zion Williamson (leg) OUT
• P.J. Washington (elbow) Questionable
• Dillon Brooks (hand) Questionable
• Tyrese Haliburton (back) Questionable
• Jakob Poeltl (COVID) OUT
• Michael Porter Jr (back) OUT
• Nikola Jokic (suspension) OUT
• Deandre Ayton (leg) Questionable
• LeBron James (abs) OUT
• Kevin Porter (leg) Questionable

Core Plays

Anthony Davis (PF/C – LAL): $11,100 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
AD has always been a stud, but he’s about to be a freak with LeBron James out of the lineup. With him off the floor last season, Davis led the team with a 37 percent usage rate while averaging 1.5 DK points per minute. Those excessive usage numbers played out on Monday, with Davis dropping 69 DraftKings points. That’s the second time in a row he’s reached 65-plus without LBJ.

Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Chef Curry is on one right now. The best shooter of all time dropped 87 DraftKings points in his last game, getting his season average north of 52 fantasy points per game. That makes him a scary option here, facing a Minnesota team that ranks 18th in total defense. In their three matchups last year, Curry averaged 29.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.7 steals per game.

LaMelo Ball (PG/SG – CHA): $10,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
This game features the two-worst defenses in the NBA, and that should lead to a monster game for LaMelo. The sophomore complained about his minutes over the weekend and received 42 in the most recent game. That led to him scoring a season-best 69 DK points, giving him a 54-point average over his last three games.

Cash Game Considerations

Russell Westbrook (PG – LAL): $11,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
This DK price is tough to trust, but the $9,400 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. This guy is struggling right now but is still averaging nearly 50 DK points per game. That’s no surprise when you see that he’s flirting with triple-double averages, especially since his usage is up with LBJ sidelined.

Chris Paul (PG – PHX): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The Point God is feeling it right now. CP3 has scored at least 43 fantasy points in four of his last five games, averaging 45 DK points per game in that span. That’s all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and it’s clear he’s trying to do more with Ayton out of the lineup. This is a majestic matchup, too, with Portland surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): $7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
The Cavaliers have hit an injury wall recently, losing Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen, and Collin Sexton over the last week. It’s been good news for Allen, though, posting some of the best numbers of his career. In fact, The Fro has at least 39 DraftKings points in four straight games, posting a 51-point average in that span. That should be easy to duplicate here, with Washington owning a 29th OPRK against opposing centers.

GPP Targets

Jaren Jackson Jr (PF/C – MEM): $6,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
JJJ is the definition of a GPP play with its volatility, but recent results are encouraging. The lengthy forward has at least 32 fantasy points in three straight games, averaging nearly 40 DK points per game in that stretch. That makes it hard to believe that he’s sitting in the low $6,000s, especially with his 50-point upside. Facing a Charlotte team who’s allowing the most points in the NBA only adds to his intrigue.

Will Barton (SG/SF – DEN): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
It’s weird that Barton didn’t get a price bump here. Denver is already missing Murray and MPJ, but it looks like they could be without Jokic as well. That means Barton will be running a lot of the offense, leading the rest of the team with a 33-point average. Barton should be a lock for 20 shots, 35 minutes, and a 30 percent usage rate if all three of those guys are out.

Drew Eubanks (C – SAS): $4,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Eubanks has been starting for Poeltl and doing a brilliant job in his absence. The big man has 80 combined fantasy points in the three starts since entering the starting lineup, averaging 27 DK points across 24 minutes a night in that span. That’s tough to find from a sub-$5K player, and Sacramento surely won’t slow him down behind their 22nd-ranked defense.

Value Plays

Monte Morris (PG – DEN): $4,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel
We just talked about how Denver will likely be without their three-best players, which should force Morris into a huge role. He’s already starting and playing a game-manager role at point guard for this team, but he’s plenty capable of running things. The simple fact is, there are too many statistics and too much usage on the table for Morris not to provide value at these $4K price tags.

Ricky Rubio (PG – CLE): $5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Rubio just had the game of his career on Sunday. In that gem, the Spaniard dropped 61 fantasy points, getting his season average up to 31 DK points per game. That makes this price tag shocking, especially with Rubio entering the starting lineup here in the absence of Sexton.

Robert Covington (SF/PF – POR): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
RoCo remains way too cheap on DraftKings. For most of his career, this guy has been a 30-point player and has reached at least 26 DK points in three of his last four games. That makes this price tough to understand, especially with Phoenix owning a 28th OPRK against opposing power forwards.

Advantageous Pricing

• Russell Westbrook (PG – LAL): $11,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
• LaMelo Ball (PG/SG – CHA): $10,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
• Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
• Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
• Robert Covington (SF/PF – POR): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
• Norman Powell (SF – POR): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
• Terry Rozier (PG/SG – CHA): $6,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
• Lonzo Ball (PG – CHI): $6,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
• Kyle Lowey (PG – MIA): $7,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

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