NBA DFS Primer: Tuesday (11/30)

I love the grind of NBA DFS. It takes a lot of work to zone in on every slate and keep track of all the news, but the work usually pays off. That’s what I love about this gig, and it’s fun to write about these guys and help make you some money.

After a large slate on Monday, we’re down to just five games here. We happen to have some fantastic matchups, though, with the Golden State-Phoenix fixture being one of the highlights of the season. That should be a wonderful game to watch, and there will undoubtedly be some recommendations in that bloodbath. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

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Schedule and Odds

• NYK at BKN (BKN -6.5) O/U: 218
• MEM at TOR (TOR -4.5) O/U: 219.5
• GSW at PHX (PHX -2) O/U: 220
• DET at POR (POR -10) O/U: 216.5
• LAL at SAC (LAL -4) O/U: 217

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• LeBron James (abs) Questionable
• Ja Morant (knee) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (Personal) OUT
• Derrick Rose (ankle) Questionable
• RJ Barrett (illness) Questionable
• Gary Trent Jr (calf) Questionable
• Klay Thompson (Achilles) OUT
• OG Anunoby (hip) OUT
• Harrison Barnes (foot) Questionable
• Norman Powell (quad) OUT
• Richaun Holmes (eye) Questionable

Core Plays

Stephen Curry (PG – GSW): $11,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
This is arguably the game of the season, and you better believe The Greatest Showman will put on a production for the fans here. The MVP frontrunner has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, leading the NBA with 53 fantasy points per game. Just pay the salary and build your lineup from there!

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $9,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Calling Lillard a core play is tough, but he’s starting to turn it on and always seems to play better at home. In his 10 home games, Lillard’s percentages skyrocket, averaging nearly 43 DraftKings points per game. That’s the guy we know and love, with Dame scoring at least 39 fantasy points in 14 of his last 17 games. We certainly don’t expect a 22nd-ranked Detroit defense to slow him down, either.

Tyus Jones (PG – MEM): $5,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Tyus has earned the starting point guard job in Memphis, stepping in for the injured Ja Morant. The reason we used the term “earned” is because he’s been stellar in this role in the past. In fact, Jones averaged over 25 DK points per game as a starter last season and dropped 22 fantasy points across 24 minutes in his starting debut. That happened to be a blowout, too, keeping his price low because Tyus will inevitably get closer to 30 minutes here.

Cash Game Considerations

Russell Westbrook (PG – LAL): $10,800 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Russ has gotten a lot of crap this season, but this dude continues to be a great fantasy asset. After a nightmare game in the opener, Westbrook has scored at least 28 DK points in all 21 games, providing 37-plus in 17 of those. That’s a genuinely miraculous floor from a player in this price range, especially with Sacramento sitting 26th in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed.

Fred VanVleet (PG/SG – TOR): $8,700 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
FVV has quietly had a nice season in Toronto, but this matchup is sensational. The Grizzlies currently rank dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency, owning a 26th OPRK against opposing guards. That’s horrific news against VanVleet, with the Wichita State product scoring at least 37 DraftKings points in 12 of his last 13 games.

Jaren Jackson Jr (PF/C – MEM): $6,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
With Memphis missing Morant, JJJ has an opportunity to be a star until he returns. We say that because Jackson Jr has a 33 percent usage rate with him off the floor, averaging 1.4 DK points per minute in those circumstances. That’s one of the best rates you’ll see, equating to 42 fantasy points if he plays 30 minutes.

GPP Targets

Dillon Brooks (SF – MEM): $7,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Brooks was chucking up shots when Morant was around, and you better believe he’ll do that even more with Morant out of the picture. With Ja on the bench, Brooks leads the team with a 36 percent usage rate, averaging 1.34 DK points per minute. That’s awesome since he’s been rolling anyway, averaging 29 DK points per game in a limited role. He’s no longer hampered by his injury either and should be ready for a full allotment of minutes against a Toronto team that owns a 28th OPRK against opposing small forwards.

Robert Covington (PF/C – POR): $3,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
This $3,900 price tag is nuts. This guy has been a $7,000 player as early as last season and can drop 30-40 fantasy points on any given night. We say that because he’s scored at least 24 DraftKings points in eight of his last 12 games. That’s essentially a 6X floor, which is truly absurd since he faces a Detroit team that owns a 28th OPRK against opposing power forwards.

Isaiah Stewart (C – DET): $4,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Beef Stew is one of the only big men left with Kelly Olynyk out of the picture, and it’s just a matter of time before he creeps closer to $6,000. Isaiah has reached at least 22 DK points in four of his last seven games, with one of those being an early exit due to an ejection and another one being a massive blowout against the Warriors. We don’t expect either of those things to happen here, with Portland ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 25th in points allowed. It also means that Stew will have to play 25-plus minutes to oppose Jusuf Nurkic, which only adds to his intrigue.

Value Plays

Alec Burks (PG/SG – NYK): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Thibs just said that Burks would replace Kemba Walker as the starting point guard in New York. He’s actually excised Walker from the rotation altogether, with Burks averaging 28 DraftKings points per game across his last eight fixtures. You can’t ask for any more from a $6K player, especially since his role should be on the uptick here.

Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF – TOR): $3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
With OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, Khem Birch, and Goran Dragic all expected to sit here, Svi should be in for a big workload. That was certainly the case on Sunday, with Mykhailiuk amassing 32 DK points across 38 minutes of action. Good luck finding that from someone in this price range, particularly against the worst defense in the NBA.

De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG – MEM): $5,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Melton has been one of the best per-minute players in the NBA over recent years. That makes him an enticing option with Ja sidelined, averaging over 35 DK points per game in the 14 games he’s played at least 26 minutes since the start of last season. Reaching that total seems more likely here with Morant out, and it would make him one of the best GPP plays on the board.

Advantageous Pricing

• James Harden (PG/SG – BKN): $11,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
• De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $8,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
• Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $9,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
• Dillon Brooks (SF – MEM): $7,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
• Robert Covington (PF/C – POR): $3,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Svi Mykhailiuk (SG/SF – TOR): $3,800 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
• Jerami Grant (PF – DET): $7,300 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
• Steven Adams (C – MEM): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

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