NBA DFS Primer: Monday (11/29)

The Sunday card was a wild one, with three of the four games being decided by double-digit margins. That can make things frustrating for DFS, and it led to a break-even day for yours truly. I did feel like I had a good read on what was going on, and that’s definitely going to carry over here.

After a small slate on Sunday, we’re back to a full card here. We have nine games in total, with many of the matchups expected to be close. The injury situation will be the most important thing here, and it’ll be critical for you to keep an eye on injury reports with so much still up in the air!

Claim Your Deposit Bonus and Free Credit Now

Schedule and Odds

• ORL at PHI (PHI -15.5) O/U: 208
• DEN at MIA (MIA -7.5) O/U: 207
• CHA at CHI (CHI -5.5) O/U: 225.5
• OKC at HOU (HOU -2) O/U: 214
• IND at MIN (MIN -4.5) O/U: 218
• CLE at DAL (DAL -6.5) O/U: 207.5
• WAS at SAS (SAS -3.5) O/U: 214
• POR at UTA (UTA -8) O/U: 223
• NOP at LAC (LAC -8.5) O/U: 208

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Ben Simmons (Personal) OUT
• Cole Anthony (ankle) OUT
• Tyler Herro (sickness) Questionable
• Jalen Brunson (foot) Questionable
• Norman Powell (Quad) OUT
• Jimmy Butler (butt) Questionable
• Kyrie Irving (Personal) OUT
• Jamal Murray (knee) OUT
• LeBron James (abs) Questionable
• Michael Porter Jr (back) OUT
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• Kawhi Leonard (knee) OUT
• Nikola Jokic (wrist) Questionable
• Mo Bamba (back) Questionable

Core Plays

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): $7,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
It’s unbelievable that Allen hasn’t gotten a price increase with the way he’s been playing. The big man has scored at least 39 DraftKings points in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 41 fantasy points per game in that span. That makes it impossible to understand why he sits below $8K still, and we love that with Dallas surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC): $8,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
It’s all about picking the right spots when it comes to SGA. This is the perfect opportunity because this game should be high-scoring, and it should stay close. We say that because OKC is a slight favorite, while Houston sits 27th in points allowed and first in pace. That makes Gilgeous-Alexander a superb option, collecting 46 DK points in this matchup just last week, despite shooting 33 percent from the field.

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,500 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Embiid missed two weeks due to a positive COVID test, but he returned with fury on Saturday. The big man dropped a season-best 71 DK points in that gem, showing just how motivated he is after missing all of that time. We don’t expect that to happen again, but he should slice through a 27th-ranked Orlando defense at ease.

Cash Game Considerations

Malcolm Brogdon (PG/SG – IND): $7,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
This is another price tag that I don’t understand. Brogdon has been playing massive minutes all year and performing at an $8K level. That’s evident in his 40-point average, scoring at least 28 DK points in 14 of 15 games this season. That’s a ridiculous floor from a guy barely cracking $7K, and he should be able to reach that 40-point average with Minnesota ranked 19th in total defense.

Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Turner had one terrible three-game span last week but has been superb outside of that. In fact, Turner has scored at least 29 DraftKings points in 13 of his previous 16 games, with that one three-game slide being the outlier. That should be easy to duplicate here, with Karl-Anthony Towns being one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA. That’s clear by their 23rd OPRK against opposing centers.

Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS): $5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Poeltl was playing at a $7K level before landing on the COVID list, and he’s been that guy since his return. In fact, Jakob has at least 29 DK points in three-straight games and averaged nearly 40 fantasy points per game before landing on the COVID list. All of that makes these sub-$6K price tags laughable, particularly with Washington owning a 25th OPRK against opposing centers.

GPP Targets

Kevin Porter Jr (PG/SF – HOU): $6,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
With Jalen Green and John Wall sitting on the sidelines, this is KPJ’s show. He was an absolute stud in this role last season and showed a flash of that with a 54-point gem over the weekend. He fell just shy of a triple-double in that game, and it’s hard to fade someone with this much upside in this price range.

Caris LeVert (SG/SF – IND): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
LeVert is actually mired in a pretty big slump right now, but this dude is too good to be barely cracking $5K. LeVert was playing at a $7K level throughout most of last season, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets back to that. The only concern is that this is the second half of a back-to-back set, but it doesn’t matter against a terrible T’Wolves defense.

PJ Washington (PF/C – CHA): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
With Mason Plumlee expected to miss another game, that means Washington should start at center once again. He was a stud in that role last season and is averaging 32 DK points per game across 29 minutes as the starting center this year. That makes him a heck of a value in this price range, and he should be asked to play big minutes to oppose a guy like Nikola Vucevic.

Value Plays

Devonte’ Graham (PG/SG – NOP): $4,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
It’s bizarre to see Graham this cheap. The little guard has established himself as one of the focal points of this Pelicans offense, averaging 28 DraftKings points per game. That’s usually the total you see from a $6K player, and it’s even more strange with DG scoring at least 25 DK points in 10 of his last 15 games.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (PF/C – OKC): $4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
JRE has been one of the best big men on this blossoming OKC roster, and it’s hard to understand why he’s still just $4,200 on DraftKings. The big man has at least 26 DK points in five of his last seven games, which is impossible to find from someone this cheap. The best part is this matchup, though, with Houston playing at the fastest pace in the NBA. That means more rebounds and scoring opportunities for this hustler.

Matisse Thybulle (SF/PF – PHI): $3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Thybulle has been one of the best defenders in the NBA since he was drafted, and it’s earned him a 30-minute role for this shorthanded team. The lengthy wing has played at least 29 minutes in five of his last six games, scoring at least 25 DK points in four of his previous seven games. Getting that from a $3,700 player is genuinely incredible, and he should pick up a handful of defensive statistics against an Orlando team that ranks near the bottom of every offensive category.

Advantageous Pricing

Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel

James Robinson-Earl (PF/C – OKC): $4,200 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Mattisse Thybulle (SF/PF – PHI): $3,700 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $9,500 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel

LaMelo Ball (PG – CHA): $10,400 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel

Robert Covington (PF/C – POR): $3,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $9,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel

Jonas Valanciunas (C – NOP): $8,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts