NBA DFS Primer: Monday (11/22)

Man, that Sunday NFL card was killer for yours truly. I faced Jonathan Taylor in seven leagues! That’s nearly half of the leagues I’m in, and it has me ready to grind NBA DFS this week. Our NBA picks did pretty well last week, but the injuries keep storming in. The good news is that we don’t have a ton here, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

After an ugly three-game slate on Sunday, we’re back to 10 games here. You should expect to see a lot of games this week on different days because Thursday is Thanksgiving. That happens to be an off day for the NBA, and it makes for a packed schedule for the rest of the week.

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Schedule and Odds

• BKN at CLE (BKN -7.5) O/U: 207.5
• CHA at WAS (WAS -3.5) O/U: 215
• OKC at ATL (ATL -11) O/U: 212
• HOU at BOS (BOS -12) O/U: 211.5
• MIN at NOP (MIN -2) O/U: 213.5
• IND at CHI (CHI -3.5) O/U: 208.5
• ORL at MIL (MIL -12.5) O/U: 216.5
• PHX at SAS (PHX -6) O/U: 218.5
• MEM at UTA (UTA -10) O/U: 221.5
• PHI at SAC (SAC -2.5) O/U: 216.5

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Ben Simmons (Personal) OUT
• Kyrie Irving (Personal) OUT
• Cole Anthony (ankle) Questionable
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) Questionable
• Dillon Brooks (hand) Questionable
• Jaylen Brown (hamstring) Questionable
• Brandon Ingram (hip) Questionable
• Zion Williamson (foot) OUT
• P.J. Washington (elbow) OUT
• Evan Mobley (elbow) OUT
• Joel Embiid (COVID) OUT
• Nikola Vucevic (COVID) OUT

Core Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $9,500 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel
I can’t believe KAT sits below $10K on both sites. The big man has established an incredible floor, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in all 16 games played. His ceiling is equally as impressive, scoring at least 49 DK points in seven of those. That should be easy to duplicate in a matchup like this, with the Pelicans ranked 29th in defensive efficiency ratings. That was on full display when Towns dropped a season-best 70 DK points on them earlier this season.

Donovan Mitchell (PG – UTA): $8,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Mitchell has taken his game to another level this year. The talented guard is averaging 24.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.9 steals per game. The scoring has always been there, but those peripheral statistics have made him a fantasy beast. In fact, he’s scored at least 31 fantasy points in all but one game this season, dropping at least 40 DK points in 10 of 15 games. The best part is this matchup, though, with Memphis ranked dead-last in points allowed and defensive efficiency.

Marcus Smart (PG/SG – BOS): $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
This pricing makes no sense. This dude has been playing at a $7K level for weeks, scoring at least 26 DK points in six straight games en route to a 32-point average in that stretch. That makes it hard to understand why he’s so affordable, especially since he faces a 26th-ranked Rockets defense here.

Cash Game Considerations

Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF – MIL): $12,000 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Not much needs to be said here. Giannis and Nikola Jokic have established themselves as the best options in fantasy, with Giannis averaging 58 fantasy points per game. He’s been even better recently, scoring at least 66 DraftKings points in three straight outings. One of those happened to come against this 27th-ranked Orlando defense, dropping 74 DK points in one of the games of the season.

Clint Capela (C – ATL): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Capela is always a great cash game play because of his double-double potential. He’s picked up a double-double in five of his last six games, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in each of those. He’s also flirting with a 40-point average in that span, making him hard to fade against a terrible Thunder frontcourt.

Rudy Gobert (C – UTA): $8,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
We actually like Gobert for all the same reasons we like Capela. These two scoop up rebounds and double-doubles like they’re playing children, establishing some of the best floors in the NBA. Rudy has registered at least 33 DK points in all but one game this season, providing a career-best 41.3 DK points per game. That makes him tough to fade against a Memphis team that owns a 27th ORK against opposing centers.

GPP Targets

Tobias Harris (PF – PHI): $8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
We’ve mentioned it before, and we’re going to keep mentioning it! Toby is a must-play as long as Embiid and Simmons remain out of the lineup. He posts a 33 percent usage rate with those two guys off the floor, averaging over 40 DK points per game in the game in the games Embiid missed last season. He’s on par with that this year, scoring 38.7 DK points per game. We love that with Sacramento sitting 25th in defensive efficiency ratings.

Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Turner has had a terrible week, but the two weeks prior show how special this guy can be. Despite scoring in the teens three times last week, Turner has surpassed 30 DraftKings points in 10 of his previous 13 games. He also provided a 41-point average in those 10 outings, making him one of the best GPP plays on the board. The matchup against Chicago is tough, but they’re missing their starting center in Vucevic right now.

Derrick White (PG/SG – SAS): $4,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
It’s strange to see a guy averaging 26.4 DK points sitting at just $5K on both sites. That alone makes White a great GPP play, with White scoring at least 25 DK points in 11 of 15 games this season. That’s tough to find from someone this affordable, especially with Phoenix owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing shooting guards this season.

Value Plays

Jalen Green (PG – HOU): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
A 19-year-old is always going to be tough to trust, but this price is getting ridiculous. What makes Green attractive is his role, taking on more usage in the absence of Kevin Porter Jr. We love that with his monster workload, playing at least 36 minutes in back-to-back games and attempting 15-plus shots regularly. If he leads the team in usage, plays 35-plus minutes, and attempts 15-20 shots, Green should easily provide value at this diminished price.

Steven Adams (C – MEM): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Adams is always a tough guy to figure out, but I always like to ride him against other prominent men. That sounds like a straightforward theory, but it’s true when the other team throws out a center like Rudy Gobert. That means Adams needs to play at least 25-30 minutes to oppose him because he’s the only body big enough to match up with him. Adams has shown some severe upside, too, scoring at least 33 DK points in five games this year en route to a 24.4-point average. You can’t ask for any more from someone in this price range!

Kevin Huerter (SG/SF – ATL): $4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Kevin was one of the stars of the playoffs last season, and it looks like he’s reviving some of that form. Big Red has 60 combined DraftKings points over his last two games, seeing his minutes skyrocket in the absence of De’Andre Hunter. If he keeps doing that, Huerter will be above $5K before you know it!

Advantageous Pricing

• Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
• Steven Adams (C – MEM): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
• James Harden (PG/SG – BKN): $11,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
• LaMelo Ball (PG/SG – CHA): $10,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
• Zach LaVine (SG – CHI): $9,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
• Darius Garland (PG – CLE): $7,200 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
• Jonas Valanciunas (C – NOP): $8,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel

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