With six kickers of ownership percentages over 60% producing six or fewer fantasy points, including Justin Tucker, Matt Prater, and Daniel Carlson, chances are the majority of fantasy managers reading this article did not have a good fantasy day from their kicker this past week.
The top three kickers of the week, Zane Gonzalez, Jake Elliott, and Joey Slye, have a combined ownership percentage of just 13%, and each of their teams delivered surprise wins that went against betting lines in Vegas.
Who knew that Carolina would go into Arizona and demolish the Cardinals despite being 10.5 dogs, or Washington (+9.5) would beat Tom Brady and the Bucs so soundly at home? The NFL is crazy and unpredictable. It’s what makes the game so fun to watch, but predicting outcomes and game scripts can often be an exercise in futility.
The initial weather forecast for this week’s slate of games does appear to be bad, with only Chicago vs. Baltimore and Kansas City vs. Dallas as possible wind-affected matchups.
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Week 10 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Zane Gonzalez (CAR) @ Arizona: 3% roster percentage on Yahoo
Gonzo now has two games of 17 fantasy points in his last three. Now that Cam Newton is back in Carolina and the Sam Darnold experiment looks to be over, Gonzalez could be a solid play going forward. We know that the Panthers have a solid young defense that can keep them in games, and Newton is an upgrade over Darnold and PJ Walker.
Jake Elliott (PHI) @ Denver: 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
Elliott is the latest of a long line of kickers who have made the most of their visit to the Mile High City. No other stadium has seen more kicks of 50 yards or more than Mile High, and Elliott came through with three field goals, including a 50-plus yarder for the Eagles. With Philly’s offense starting to get going and a tough home matchup against New Orleans, Elliott could be a solid play this week.
Week 10 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) @ Miami: 99% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Dolphins coaching staff did a number on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens with more blitzes from their safety than any other team in the stat cast era. The result was an off night for Jackson and the Ravens offense and a disappointing loss on the road against a subpar opponent. I anticipate other teams will mimic that strategy, but the Ravens coaching staff will not be surprised again. Tucker is still a solid option and should not be dropped.
Week 11 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 18th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 14. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 11.
Michael Badgley (IND) @ Buffalo 40% roster percentage on Yahoo
Badgley has 20 fantasy points in his last two games, including 11 last week at home against the Jags. Weather is a bit of a concern in this game, but the preliminary forecast calls for a decent day for kicking. Badgley has at least seven fantasy points in every game since taking over for Hot Rod Blankenship and should be in line for at least seven points against a Bills team that is second in red zone defense.
Dustin Hopkins (LAC) vs. Pittsburgh: 15% roster percentage on Yahoo
Hopkins has yet to post a double-digit performance since joining the Chargers, but he has provided a floor of no less than six points in every game. If you are looking for a high floor play this week, Hopkins at home against the Steelers is your guy. The Steelers are ninth in points allowed to kickers, and stud pass rusher TJ Watt might be limited.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Chase McLaughlin (CLE) @ New England 19% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 23
- My Rank: 9
- Week 10 Finish: 24
The game script in this matchup against the Patriots went utterly sideways on McLaughlin, leaving him with just one extra point. His K Score of 28 was one of the best of the week and indicated that he would be in line for multiple field goals as long as the game did not turn into a blowout. Unfortunately, that proved to be the case, and pretty much everyone on the Browns turned out to be busts on Sunday.
Mason Crosby (GB) vs. Seattle: 52% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 11
- Week 10 Finish: T18
His sub-40 K Score and a home matchup indicated a likelihood of at least eight fantasy points against the Seahawks. Had Crosby made his 45-yard attempt, he would have finished with nine points and a top-10 finish. Instead, he only scored four points in what turned out to be a disappointing game for anyone not named AJ Dillon.
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Ryan Succop (TB) vs. NYG: 58% roster percentage on Yahoo
Succop has been disappointing as of late, with 20 combined fantasy points dating back to Week 6 and just two double-digit performances on the season. His K Score of 32 at home against a Giants defense that is 6th in red zone defense indicates a high probability of at least seven fantasy points.
Other players to consider
- Nick Folk (NE) vs. Cleveland: 68% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Zane Gonzalez (CAR) vs. Washington: 3% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
