Tyler Bass entered Week 11 with five games of ten or more fantasy points, including 30 combined points in Weeks 3 and 4. His worst game of the season was five points against the Dolphins in Week 2, in which he did not get a single field goal chance but did convert all five of his extra points.
Bass is among the best fantasy options and the position and is one of a handful with a roster percentage of over 95% on Yahoo.
With the Indianapolis Colts coming to town and a home game with relatively good weather (by Western New York standards), Bass looked prime to deliver a monster game and was ranked first by ECR and was also first overall on my rankings.
Instead of delivering a great fantasy day for his managers, Bass came through with a goose egg, missing two long field goals on the day, and salvaged a non-negative score with one extra point. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts punched the Bills in the mouth, the Bills offense struggled to respond, and Bass had an off day with his accuracy.
Bass’ dreadful day is a reminder of just how much kickers are affected by negative game scripts. If a game goes sideways, even the top-rated kicker on the week can be a dud.
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Week 11 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Evan McPherson (CIN) @ Las Vegas 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
McPherson posted his fourth double-digit performance of the season with a 20-point monster against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Bengals and their 14th ranked offense in yards per game are playing at home this week against a Steelers defense that was just abused by the Chargers. As long as the weather report looks ok on gameday, I anticipate McPherson should have another solid day this week.
Jake Elliott (PHI) vs. New Orleans: 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
Last week I wrote about how we need to start taking Elliott seriously after how the Eagles defense is starting to come around and how well Jalen Hurts is running the offense. With 55 points in his last four games, including 19 last week in a blowout win at home against the Saints, Elliott is squarely in must-add range. He also has a choice schedule for a kicker with the Giants and Jets over the next two weeks. He is my top waiver wire add.
Week 11 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Randy Bullock (TEN) vs. Houston: 63% roster percentage on Yahoo
I imagine that Bullock will hit the waiver wire this week in most leagues after joining Tyler Bass in the goose department. Just like the game script for Bass, this game was a shocker, with the 1-8 Texans beating the 8-2 Titans in Tennessee. While the weather did play a part in this, I am starting to get concerned with Ryan Tannehill‘s performances and his turnovers. I would not blame you if you moved on from Bullock for Elliott.
Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Bills rank 22nd in red zone efficiency; therefore, Tyler Bass has an RZ EFF score of 10. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 12.
Michael Badgley (IND) vs. Tampa Bay 29% roster percentage on Yahoo
I'm not sure what fantasy managers and fantasy writers are missing with Badgley. He has been nothing but consistent and has a high floor. Although the Colts have the 11th ranked offense in yards per game and Jonathan Taylor is tearing up the league, Indy ranks in the bottom quarter in red-zone efficiency. Oh, and he gets to play the Bucs in what projects to be a solid kicking opportunity at home.
Joey Slye (WAS) vs. Seattle : 3% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am not as high on Slye as I am on Badgley, but Slye does have one of the better K Scores of the week and is playing at home against Seattle. The Football Team are the second-worst red-zone offense, and this game does not look like a struggling Seattle team will create a sideways game script.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Michael Badgley (IND) @ Buffalo 40% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 17
My Rank: 7
Week 11 Finish: 8
After a down week, I stormed back in my predictions with two players ranked outside the top-12 who finished as top 8 plays in Michael Badgley and Dustin Hopkins. Badgley came through with his second straight 11-point performance and has yet to post fewer than seven points in any game. Why he is still rostered in fewer than 30% of Yahoo leagues is beyond me.
Dustin Hopkins (LAC) vs. Pittsburgh: 15% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 20
My Rank: 10
Week 11 Finish: 7
The former Football Team kicker is a perfect 7 for 7 since joining the Chargers in Week 8 and has not delivered fewer than seven fantasy points in any game. With how the Chargers offense is playing, this game script could work in favor of Hopkins delivering another solid game. His K score is not as high as last week, but he could end posting another top-10 performance in the thin Denver air.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Jake Elliott (PHI) vs. New Orleans: 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
The K Score variables are starting to point in the right direction for Elliott and his schedule this week against the Giants and next week against the Jets looks to be excellent. If you are in the market for a streaming kicker this week, Elliott is a strong play, and so are the two listed below.
Other players to consider:
- Michael Badgley (IND) vs. Tampa Bay 29% roster percentage on Yahoo
- Evan McPherson (CIN) @ Las Vegas 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.