Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 12 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Joe Burrow (CIN - QB) vs. PIT, $7,100 (-$300)
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 12 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Joe Burrow (CIN - QB) vs. PIT, $7,100 (-$300)
The Steelers allowed 41 points and 382 yards passing to Justin Herbert last week. Joe Burrow completed 20 of his 29 passes against the Raiders for just 148 yards and one touchdown as the Bengals didn't need to rely on his arm to win. The Steelers are a favorable matchup for the young quarterback, and I expect him to bounce back and have to throw the ball more often in this one. Most importantly, he's down $300 and priced as the QB22 on FanDuel, but I have him projected as a QB1.
DraftKings
Cam Newton (CAR - QB) vs. MIA, $5,600 (+$500)
Which is harder to believe, that Cam Newton is back with the Panthers or that he was the QB5 overall last week? Making his first start, Newton completed 21 of his 27 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns and added 46 yards and another touchdown rushing. With another week in the Carolina offense, he should be even more comfortable heading into a Week 12 matchup against Washington, and his dual-threat ability provides a high floor at just $5,600 on DraftKings.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Ty Johnson (NYJ - RB) vs. HOU, $5,200 ($0)
Michael Carter isn't playing this week, and Ty Johnson figures to benefit the most from his absence. Sure, Tevin Coleman is still there, but Johnson should see more touches against a bad Texans team. On Fanduel, he is priced as the RB43 at just $5,200, making him an intriguing flex option in GPP contests.
DraftKings
James Robinson (JAC - RB) vs. ATL, $6,200 (-$200)
At RB11 on DraftKings, James Robinson isn't the biggest discount in the world this week. But he's still good value at $6,200, and I have him projected as a possible RB1 overall thanks to his matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. He is dealing with heel and knee injuries and was limited in practice early this week, but he is already ahead of where he was at this point last week and should be fine for Week 12.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Diontae Johnson (PIT - WR) vs. CIN, $7,100 (+$100)
Diontae Johnson has received exactly 13 targets in four of his last five games and has caught seven of those targets in two consecutive games. Outside of Week 5 against the Broncos, Johnson has caught at least five passes in every game this season. He has been the model of consistency this season and gets a solid matchup against the Bengals to go with a WR14 price tag on FanDuel.
DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle (MIA - WR) vs. CAR, $5,900 (+$300)
Simply put, Jaylen Waddle is a different player (and a different asset in fantasy) when Tua Tagovailoa is at quarterback. Since Week 6, Waddle has received at least eight targets in every game that Tua has started. Last week, he caught eight of his nine targets against the Jets for 65 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers are a tougher matchup than the Jets, but the target share should be about the same, if not more. Waddle is just the WR19 at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Dallas Goedert (PHI - TE) vs. NYG, $5,900 (+$200)
We finally stopped talking about Dallas Goedert last week, but he continues to be a value. The Eagles have been running the ball more over the last several weeks, but Goedert continues to be one of their two primary targets in the passing game, along with rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith. The Giants have actually been good at limiting points to opposing tight ends this season, but Goedert's role in the Philadelphia offense is fairly unique. If the Giants are able to force the Eagles to run the ball more often than they have over the last month or so, Goedert could see additional targets in this one.
DraftKings
Pat Freiermuth (PIT - TE) vs. CIN, $4,300 (+$400)
It sounds like fellow tight end Eric Ebron is going to miss some time, and Pat Freiermuth was heating up even with that competition for targets. With Ebron out, Freiermuth becomes that much more valuable. At $4,300 on DraftKings, he's priced as a back-end TE1 and should have a low roster%.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.