The line has shifted a ton at the end of the week, with Dak Prescott genuinely questionable for this contest. The Cowboys were 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week, and the game’s over/under was 54.5 points. Now, the Vikings are 3.0-point favorites, and the over/under slid to a still-robust 51.5 points. The analysis below attempts to navigate Dallas’s uncertainty at quarterback, as we likely won’t have confirmation until the inactive list is provided 90 minutes before kickoff.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
The line has shifted a ton at the end of the week, with Dak Prescott genuinely questionable for this contest. The Cowboys were 2.5-point favorites earlier in the week, and the game’s over/under was 54.5 points. Now, the Vikings are 3.0-point favorites, and the over/under slid to a still-robust 51.5 points. The analysis below attempts to navigate Dallas’s uncertainty at quarterback, as we likely won’t have confirmation until the inactive list is provided 90 minutes before kickoff.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 51.5 Points
Cowboys Analysis: Let's start with the elephant in the room I addressed in passing in the intro.
As Adam Schefter tweeted, it looks like Prescott is a legitimate coin flip to play Sunday night. If he's out, Cooper Rush is the starter and a viable bargain option, namely at DraftKings. Further, Rush starting would diminish the value of all of the pass-catchers. On the other hand, if Prescott plays, he is in the mix, and CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz, and Cedrick Wilson are stronger higher-ceiling selections.
I included Blake Jarwin in the event Rush starts. If Prescott starts, Jarwin is a wholesale fade as the distant second tight end behind Schultz. However, I think it's worth speculating on Jarwin and Rush having chemistry from practicing together as the backups. Obviously, that's not a shoo-in.
Interestingly, regardless of who is under center, Ezekiel Elliott is my favorite piece of exposure to the Cowboys. According to Football Outsiders, the Vikings rank third in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they're much more giving on the ground, ranking 24th in rush defense DVOA. Dallas' offensive line against Minnesota's well below-average run defense is a significant mismatch. Football Outsiders ranks the Cowboys first in Adjusted Line Yards. Further, Pro Football Focus grades the Cowboys first in run blocking.
Zeke is eating this year. He's averaging 104.3 yards from scrimmage per game, per Pro-Football-Reference. In addition, Elliott has played 71% of Dallas' snaps compared to only 32% for Tony Pollard, according to our snap counts. Additionally, Elliott has a massive route edge over Pollard, running 158 to 53, per Pro Football Focus.
Still, even operating in a clear change-of-pace role, Pollard has single-game slate value. He's reached double-digit touches in every game except the opener. In his last five games, he's averaging 87.6 yards from scrimmage per game, averaging a pinch over two receptions per game, to boot. I expect the Cowboys to lean even more heavily on the rushing attack with Prescott playing at less than 100% or backup Rush starting in his place. So, don't be afraid to use Zeke and Pollard together, taking advantage of their mismatch against Minnesota's bad run defense.
Vikings Analysis: The Vikings run a highly concentrated offense. Dalvin Cook is the workhorse when healthy. In Week 6, he played 74% of the snaps compared to only 13% for Alexander Mattison. He toted the rock 29 times for 140 yards and a score, hauled in both of his targets, and ran 27 routes. Comparatively, Mattison carried the ball only three times, wasn't targeted, and ran only eight routes. This is Cook's backfield, and the bell-cow back is averaging 109.8 yards per game from scrimmage with a couple of touchdowns. Therefore, he's a stellar selection that is game-script-proof. Further, he can be used with Dallas' running back duo since both teams can do a ton of damage on the ground.
This year, Kirk Cousins is off to a hot start, using his bevy of weapons to average 294.8 passing yards per game with 13 touchdown passes. Cousins is an excellent option on this slate, and there's a game-script correlation to using him with Dallas' one-two running back combo if the Vikings play catch-up and the Cowboys lean on the ground attack to protect a lead.
Thankfully, Cousins has a mix of high-priced studs, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, and bargain picks, K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin. Jefferson is rightfully priced as the top option, leading the team in receptions and receiving yards per game with 6.8 and 90.3, respectively.
Meanwhile, Thielen is second with 6.2 receptions and 65.5 receiving yards per game. However, the veteran wideout also leads the team in routes (249) and touchdown receptions (five). According to our red zone stats, Cousins has attempted 11 passes inside the 10, directing five to Thielen and six to the other pass-catchers. Thielen's converted three of those looks into touchdowns, so suffice to say he's Cousins' preferred red zone option with a knack for finding paydirt. Thielen's more touchdown-dependent than Jefferson, but there's an argument he's the better option when factoring in salary. If you can afford to pay up for Jefferson, I prefer the second-year receiver. Still, I'm splitting hairs and comfortable spinning down to Thielen as well.
Finally, K.J. Osborn and Tyler Conklin are on even footing as fantastic bargain options. The former has run 191 routes compared to 174 for the latter. However, Conklin ran 37 routes to 34 for Osborn in Week 6 before Minnesota's Week 7 bye. Osborn holds slight edges in targets (35 to 30), receptions per game (4.3 versus 3.7), receiving yards per game (51.8 and 40.0), and touchdown receptions (two to one) over Conklin. However, Conklin's been targeted twice inside the 10 compared to zero targets for Osborn. So, Conklin's probably the better bet to score a touchdown based on red-zone usage, despite Osborn scoring two compared to only one for Conklin so far. Still, Osborn's the slightly more attractive option, but it's a razor-thin margin, and using both is a viable move.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Waiver Wire advice
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
