Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 26.5, Bengals 23.5
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers: The Bengals’ defense has been surprisingly respectable this season, and Cincy’s pass rush has been fierce. Still, I don’t think you can fade Rodgers in a week where he could be forced into a shootout. The Packers continue to be without their best pass rusher, Za’Darius Smith, and now they’re going to be without one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Jaire Alexander, who has a shoulder injury. If the Packers are defenseless against Bengals QB Joe Burrow and his three terrific receivers, Rodgers may be forced into a catch-up game script. I generally think it’s a bad idea to make assumptions about game scripts, and it has to be noted that the Bengals and Packers have been two of the slowest-paced teams in the league this year. But this is a game with sneaky shootout potential, and I’m going to be betting the over on 46 points. Rodgers checks in as my QB13 this week.
Joe Burrow: The Bengals have run plays at the second-slowest pace in the league so far, outpacing only the Saints. Cincinnati has run 209 offensive plays; only the Seahawks have run fewer. Burrow is the QB17 in fantasy scoring so far, averaging 18.21 fantasy points per game. But no matter: I love this spot for Burrow. He’s probably going to get WR Tee Higgins back from a shoulder injury. The Packers don’t have their best pass rusher, Za’Darius Smith, and they’re going to be without star CB Jaire Alexander, who injured his shoulder last week while tackling Najee Harris. I have Burrow at QB10, four spots above his FantasyPros expert consensus ranking, and I’ll grab him in a few DraftKings competitions at $6,100.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: Jones played a slightly reduced snap share (62%) last week in a game that the Packers had under control for most of the afternoon. He didn’t find the end zone and ran for only 48 yards, but he did have 51 receiving yards, so 99 yards from scrimmage wasn’t a terrible output against a good Pittsburgh defense. Dillon had 15 carries for 81 yards against the Steelers after handling 15 carries in three previous games combined. He showed the power and agility that have people excited about him, but Dillon is still just a handcuff with no stand-alone value at this point. The Bengals have been good against the run this year, allowing 3.8 yards per carry, but Jones should be a unanimous top-five play at running back.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine: Mixon has 83 carries and trails only Derrick Henry in that category. His usage in the passing game has been underwhelming: 7-79-0 on nine targets, with only six receiving yards in his last three games. Still, we’re certainly not complaining about the role. Mixon is described as “day to day” with a low ankle sprain. If he’s able to play, fire him up against a mediocre Green Bay run defense, but it might be a good week to bypass him in DFS due to the ankle injury and the minimal passing-game usage. If Mixon doesn’t play, Samaje Perine would get most of the early-down work and would be ranked in upper-to-middle RB2 range. Rookie Chris Evans would probably take some passing-down work.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams: Aaron Rodgers‘ go-to receiver has commanded a massive 35.7% target share through four games. Adams leads the league with 31 receptions, and his 45 targets put him one behind league leader Cooper Kupp. With only one touchdown so far, Adams checks in at WR11 in fantasy scoring, but you have to like his chance of finding the end zone this week against a banged-up Bengals secondary that was missing CB Chidobe Awuzie and S Jessie Bates in Week 4 and may be forced to have Eli Apple try to cover Adams in Week 5.
Randall Cobb: He had four catches in his first three games of the season, but Cobb made noise in Week 4, catching 5 of 6 targets for 69 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers. The Packers’ front office threw disgruntled Packers QB, Aaron Rodgers, a bone shortly before the start of the season by bringing back his old slot receiver. The Rodgers-Cobb chemistry didn’t yield dividends early, but maybe Cobb’s increased Week 4 usage will stick now that Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is going to be out a while. Cobb played a season-high 46% nap share last week. I have him at WR62 this week, and it’s at least worth keeping his name in your waiver-wire Rolodex.
Allen Lazard: The hamstring injury that landed Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling on IR could boost Lazard’s usage. He played a season-high 79% snap share in Week 4 but caught only 2 of 3 targets for 33 yards. Lazard’s exceptional blocking won’t earn you any fantasy points, unfortunately.
Ja’Marr Chase: The rookie’s TD-scoring streak was snapped at three games when he failed to reach the end zone in last Thursday’s win over the Bengals. Chase investors were probably expecting more than 6-77-0 in that game with Tee Higgins out, but it wasn’t a horrible result. Higgins has a good chance to return this week, but Chase is still a strong play against a banged-up Green Bay defense that’s probably going to try to cover him with rookie CB Eric Stokes. Chase, who was a college star at LSU, and Stokes, who played at Georgia, faced each other in the SEC. Chase had 3-41-1 against Georgia in 2019, the year he had 1,780 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns, but this is certainly not a matchup to be feared. Consider Chase a low-end WR1 this week.
Tee Higgins: After sitting out Weeks 3-4 with a shoulder injury, Higgins has a good chance to return in Week 5. He had TD catches in each of his first two games and has a juicy potential matchup against a Green Bay defense that will be without ace CB Jaire Alexander. Despite his recent absence, I have Higgins ranked as a low-end WR2 and won’t hesitate to play him in season-long leagues, assuming he’s cleared to play.
Tyler Boyd: With Tee Higgins out of the lineup last week and the Bengals in second-half catch-up mode after trailing the Jaguars 14-0 at halftime, Boyd had 9-118-0 on 11 targets. Higgins may be back this week, but Boyd is still a highly attractive play against the injury-riddled Packers. The Bengals’ slot man will have a very winnable matchup against Packers CB Chandon Sullivan. Start Boyd in season-long leagues and use him in DraftKings contests at a bargain-priced $5,300.
Tight Ends
Robert Tonyan: The man Aaron Rodgers calls “Bobby” has been held to under 10 receiving yards in three of four games. Tonyan had only two catches for eight yards last week despite seeing a season-high seven targets. The Bengals are giving up 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and ace safety Jessie Bates is expected to return this week after missing Week 4. It’s a good week to keep Tonyan on ice. I have him ranked TE17.
C.J. Uzomah: “Don’t chase last week’s points.” It’s a timeless fantasy football axiom that now applies to Uzomah, who scored two touchdowns in Cincinnati’s win over Jacksonville last Thursday. The Bengals’ passing game runs through its terrific trio of wide receivers, and Uzomah is going to miss far more often than he hits. He’s not rosterable in normal-sized leagues.
Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Steelers -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 40 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Steelers 21.5, Broncos 19.5
Quarterbacks
Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock: Bridgewater sustained a concussion in Week 4 and is questionable. Simply put. neither of the Denver quarterbacks would be usable in a road matchup against the Steelers, even though the Pittsburgh pass defense hasn’t been quite as stingy as usual.
Ben Roethlisberger: It’s getting hard to find different ways to express the idea that Roethlisberger is cooked. We got more glaring evidence of it last week when Roethlisberger twice threw passes well short of the first down marker on fourth down with the Steelers in second-half catch-up mode. And it wasn’t Roethlisberger throwing to wide-open receivers and hoping they could break a tackle to pick up the first down. Both times, his intended target had a defender right in his hip pocket. On the first, Najee Harris was immediately brought down after the catch. On the second, JuJu Smith-Schuster made a valiant attempt to reach the ball over the first down stripe but would have needed to be 20 feet tall. The Broncos have one of the better pass defenses in the league, so you dare not use Big Ben this week.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams: The two Denver backs split snaps almost evenly last week. Gordon had a season-low nine carries, resulting in 56 rushing yards. Williams ran seven times for 48 yards, including a memorable 30-yard gain on which he dragged Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey for (no exaggeration) 20 yards. It’s not a great week to use either Gordon or Williams. While the Pittsburgh pass defense has been surprisingly porous, the Steelers’ run defense continues to be tough to crack, ranking seventh in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. I have both Gordon and Williams ranked as low-end RB3s.
Najee Harris: Harris is coming off his best rushing day of the season, a 15-62-1 effort against the Packers. He also had six more receptions, bringing his total to 26 for the season and keeping him above a 100-catch pace. Harris was facing a mediocre Green Bay run defense last week and gets a much tougher draw in Week 5 against Denver, which is yielding a league-low 7.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Harris is still in RB1 range for Week 5, but just barely. At $6,900, he’s a fade for me in DraftKings contests.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s Week 5 usability may depend on who’s quarterbacking the Broncos. He’s gelled nicely with new starter Teddy Bridgewater, but Sutton has never really clicked with Drew Lock, who would start this week if Bridgewater isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol in time. After going for 9-159-0 in Week 2, Sutton has produced just 8-84-0 over the last two weeks. I’m tentatively ranking Sutton WR30 on the assumption that Lock will start. I’ll move Sutton up a few spots if Bridgewater plays.
Tim Patrick: Decent floor, low ceiling: That’s the Tim Patrick experience. He’s had at least three catches in all four of Denver’s games, but he hasn’t seen more than six targets in any of those contests. He’s the WR34 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR), but I have him ranked beyond WR4 range this week. A potential Drew Lock start in place of the concussed Teddy Bridgewater would bode ill, and a road game in Pittsburgh isn’t a great spot to begin with.
Diontae Johnson: After missing Week 3 with a knee injury, Johnson returned to action in Week 4 and was the Steelers’ best pass-catching weapon, finishing with 9-92-1 on 13 targets. Johnson has seen double-digit targets in all three of his games this year, and he’s had nine catches in each of his last two games. As bad as Ben Roethlisberger has looked this season, Johnson is still a must-start in season-long leagues. He’s my WR20 this week.
Chase Claypool: You’ll have to monitor the status of Claypool, who didn’t play last weekend due to a hamstring injury. His target counts have been all over the place this season: 5, 9, 15. With Ben Roethlisberger as his quarterback, Claypool probably won’t be able to provide efficiency or consistency this season, but he has abundant big-play potential and has to be considered no worse than a low-end WR3 if he’s able to play.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: It was just three years ago that Smith-Schuster had a 111-catch, 1,400-yard season. Now, he’s droppable in most fantasy leagues. It’s not his fault. Well, mostly it’s not his fault. The Steelers continue to use him almost exclusively as a short-area receiver, and now he’s sharing short-area targets with RB Najee Harris. Juju is averaging 8.6 yards per catch and 4.8 yards per target, and there’s simply not enough target volume for him to make the small-ball game profitable for his investors. Smith-Schuster is out of my top 50 at receiver for a second straight week.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: Steady but unspectacular so far this season, Fant is currently TE8 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR). If Drew Lock has to start in place of Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), it may hurt Fant less than it would hurt the Denver receivers, since Fant seemed to have a decent rapport with Lock in 2020. But Fant is facing a Pittsburgh defense that’s giving up only 5.7 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and held Raiders TE Darren Waller to 5-65-0 in Week 2. Fant is more of a high-end TE2 this week than the TE1 he usually is.
Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron: Steelers’ tight ends are averaging a combined five targets per game, and Freiermuth and Ebron are splitting snaps almost evenly. It’s not a very fantasy-friendly formula. Freiermuth is TE25 in fantasy scoring, and Ebron isn’t even in the top 60. If Freiermuth completely kicks Ebron to the curb and seizes a decisive majority of snaps and targets, he’ll be worth your consideration every week in season-long leagues, but that day hasn’t arrived yet.
Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Raiders -5.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Raiders 25.5, Bears 20
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields: Bears head coach Matt Nagy committed to Fields as his starter this week after insisting for weeks that Andy Dalton would retake the starting job once he returned from a knee injury. After a nightmarish first start against the Browns in Week 3, Fields was much crisper in a Week 4 win over the Lions, completing 11 of 17 passes for 209 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Fields averaged 12.3 yards per pass attempt, though he didn’t throw often. He had four completions of 20 or more yards, and his average depth of target was 13.4 yards. That last number is an eye-opener, and credit goes to Bears offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who took over the play-calling duties from Nagy and called a much better, much more aggressive game than Nagy did against Cleveland in Week 3. Fields’ Week 4 fantasy numbers weren’t encouraging, but the overall direction here is positive, and it’s only a matter of time before the rookie’s running ability starts to pay off. He’s the QB19 this week in a road game against the Raiders.
Derek Carr: After throwing for now fewer than 382 yards in any of his first three starts, Carr had just 196 passing yards in a 28-14 Monday-night loss to the Chargers. Carr felt more pass-rushing pressure than he had in any of the Raiders’ three wins, with the Chargers sacking him four times. Next up for Carr is a home date with the Bears, who can generate pressure, too, leading the NFL with 15 sacks. But if Carr gets time, he’ll get to snack on a Chicago secondary that features only one quality cornerback, Jaylon Johnson, and is giving up 8.6 yards per pass attempt, the fifth-highest total in the league. Carr is a midrange QB2 for me this week and not a consideration in DFS.
Running Backs
Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert: David Montgomery is expected to miss 4-5 weeks with a knee injury, leaving Williams and Herbert to split work for a team that has sought run-pass balance throughout the Matt Nagy era. Williams has had short but impressive bursts of fantasy utility. He had some big games over the last two months of 2019, helping a lot of fantasy managers win titles with a 124-yard, two-TD rushing day in Week 16. Herbert is a sixth-round rookie from Virginia Tech who ran for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns in his final college season with the Hokies. It’s notable that the Bears traded for Jakeem Grant earlier this week. Grant will presumably take over kickoff return duties, freeing up Herbert for RB usage. I take it as a positive sign that the Bears are serious about giving Herbert a shot as a runner. The Raiders are giving up 22.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and were jolted by Austin Ekeler for 143 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns last Monday night. I have Williams at RB 16 and Herbert at RB60 this week.
Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake: After missing Weeks 2-3 with an ankle injury, Jacobs was back in the lineup in Week 4 and wasn’t able to do much business against the Chargers, with 13-40-0 rushing and 5-17-0 receiving. Peyton Barber is expected to be out several weeks with a case of turf toe, so Jacobs will get all the early-down work he can handle. I rank Jacobs as a low-end RB2 against a solid Bears defense. Drake played a season-low snap share of 35% in Week 4 and had just one carry for two yards. The Barber injury should keep Drake in the No. 2 role for now, but he has no real fantasy value – possibly not even handcuff value.
Wide Receivers
Allen Robinson: Over his last three games, Robinson has 7-114-1 on just 13 targets. The 26-6 loss to Cleveland in Week 3 was a disaster, and QB Justin Fields attempted only 17 passes in Week 4, so we can easily explain away A-Rob’s lack of productivity over the last two weeks. The general approach by offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who took over play-calling duties in Week 4, would seem to bode well for Robinson: Stretch the field with deeper throws and give Fields some additional pass protection. I know it’s terrifying to use Robinson after four slow weeks, but I think he’s no worse than a midrange WR3 and deserves to be in a lot of lineups this week.
Darnell Mooney: Mooney was the target on seven of QB Justin Fields‘ 17 pass attempts on Sunday and had five catches for 125 yards. With Fields averaging a 13.4-yard target depth on his Week 4 throws, Mooney is poised to benefit from the vertical emphasis in offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s play calling. I have Mooney ranked as a midrange WR4 against a middle-of-the-pack Raiders pass defense, and I admit that ranking feels overly conservative. I just want to see it again before I fully buy in.
Henry Ruggs: As a rookie, Ruggs’ average depth of target was 17.4 yards. Some critics thought that was too high a number, and that the nearly exclusive use of Ruggs on deep routes was preventing him from becoming an impactful contributor. So far in 2021, Ruggs’ aDOT is 17.8, even higher than it was last year. He’s averaging 11.9 yards per target and 21.2 yards per catch, and he’s the WR29 in half-point PPR scoring. Ruggs is a classic lid lifter, and while that role didn’t provide fantasy value last year, there’s value to it this year. I have Ruggs at WR44 this week, but he could outkick that expectation with just one big play.
Hunter Renfrow: The diminutive slot receiver has turned into a nice weekly floor play. Renfrow had caught at least five passes in every game this season, and now he’s scored a touchdown in consecutive games. Renfrow is WR22 in half-point PPR scoring, averaging 12 points per game. He gets a favorable matchup against Bears slot corner Duke Shelley. I have Renfrow as a back-end WR4 this week. And by the way, bravo to Renfrow for a beautiful pass breakup to ruin a fake punt by the Chargers on Monday night. The play demonstrated that this dude is just a pure football player.
Bryan Edwards: It’s hard to tell what to make of Edwards. He’s averaging 19.5 yards per catch and 12.6 yards per target, but he’s commanding precious few targets – 17 of them in four games. He’s topped 80 yards in two of his four games, but he’s pulled disappearing acts in the other two. He’s on the outer edges of fantasy relevance and needs a big game to get fantasy managers interested in him again. Edwards checks in at WR67 this week.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: In two Justin Fields starts, Kmet has two catches for 17 yards. Kmet has played nearly every offensive snap the last two weeks and is running a lot of routes, so maybe we shouldn’t be concerned. And yet I have Kmet ranked in high-end TE3 range because we need a “prove it” game from him before we can even consider trusting him in our lineups.
Darren Waller: Over the last three weeks, opposing tight ends have compiled 8-65-1 against the Bears, who are allowing only 4.8 fantasy points per game to TEs on the year. Chicago held T.J. Hockenson to 4-42-0 last week. But holding down Waller is another matter. I’m fading Waller at $7,300 in DraftKings due to the matchup, but there are obviously no concerns about using Waller in season-long leagues.
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 25.25, Browns 24.25
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: Good grief, did Mayfield have some terrible throws in Week 4. On his most egregious miss of the day, Mayfield had Odell Beckham wide open 25 yards downfield with 1:08 left and could have clinched the victory with a completion, but the throw sailed well behind OBJ. Mayfield has certainly had better days, but even the good days tend not to be that good for fantasy managers. Mayfield has thrown only two TD passes this season. In his last eight games, going back to last season and including the playoffs, he’s thrown multiple TD passes only once. Mayfield opened the season with a 321-yard day against Kansas City, which we now know has a hideous defense. Since then, he’s averaged 204.7 passing yards per game. Mayfield is unplayable this week against a Chargers pass defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and is yielding 6.6 yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert: With three TD passes in a Monday-night win over the Raiders, Herbert has seven touchdowns in his last two games. The Chargers like to throw, which greatly pleases Herbert stakeholders. Herbert is fourth in the league in pass attempts, averaging 41 per game, and second in completions. The second-year quarterback is proving to be resourceful. Stud WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined for only 47 yards against the Raiders, but the TE trio of Jared Cook, Donald Parham and Stephen Anderson combined for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Herbert faces his toughest test of the season this week against the Browns, who have allowed 13 total points in wins over the Bears and Vikings the last two weeks. The Cleveland pass rush hounded Bears QB Justin Fields, sacking him nine times, and put near-constant heat on Vikings QB Kirk Cousins. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 57.7% of their throws against the Browns and averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. I have Herbert outside of QB1 range this week.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: So far this season, all but two of the Browns’ 11 offensive touchdowns have been runs. Chubb and Hunt each have three of those TD runs. Chubb has gone scoreless in his last two games, but no worries: He’s second in the league in rushing with 362 yards, and he’s had at least 83 rushing yards in every game. Hunt has been on fire, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) over his last two games. Week 5 would seem to set up well for Chubb and Kareem Hunt since the Chargers are much easier to run on than throw on. The Chargers’ defense is fourth in DVOA against the pass but 25th in DVOA against the run. They’ve given up 558 rushing yards, the fourth-highest total in the league, and 5.3 yards per carry. Chubb is RB4 in this week’s rankings, with Hunt at RB15. In DraftKings contests, I prefer Hunt at $5,800 over Chubb at $6,700, though I’ll try to get exposure to both.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler had a huge game against the Raiders in Week 4, finishing with 15-117-1 rushing and 3-28-1 receiving. That made him the RB2 on the week behind only Cordarrelle Patterson. But Ekeler now gets a date with the Browns, one of only two teams allowing fewer than 10 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. (The Broncos are yielding 7.7 FPPG, the Browns 9.3.) Ekeler is ranked RB7 this week, but I’m off him at $7,600 on DraftKings.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham: Browns wide receivers still haven’t caught a TD pass this season. Beckham might have had the first touchdown if Baker Mayfield hadn’t missed him when he was wide open deep down the right side in the final two minutes of Cleveland’s 14-7 win over Minnesota in Week 4. Beckham’s stat lines in his first two games: 5-77-0 and 2-27-0. The latter certainly would have looked better if not for the Mayfield misfire, and OBJ had seven targets in that game, so it wasn’t as if he got lost in the shuffle. The Chargers’ defense has been tough against the pass this year, so I’m ranking Beckham conservatively this week, putting him at WR34. His $6,000 DraftKings price tag isn’t appealing.
Keenan Allen: Don’t look now, but after averaging a career-low 6.7 yards per target in 2020, Allen is once again averaging 6.7 yards per target. It’s probably not a big deal. Allen is on a 119-catch, 1,250-yard pace. It’s just that he’s having to catch a lot of balls to get his yardage. Allen has a fun matchup this week against Cleveland’s Troy Hill, one of the better slot corners in the game. I have Allen at WR16, and I don’t think I’ll have much of him at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Mike Williams: After scoring at least one touchdown and collecting at least 82 yards in each of his first three games, Williams can be forgiven for a one-catch, 11-yard dud against the Raiders on Monday night. But man, how weird. The matchup wasn’t bad either. Williams will try to snap back against a Browns defense with two pretty good outside cornerbacks: Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. I have Williams ranked WR16 this week and won’t use him in DraftKings contests at an exorbitant price of $7,200.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant: It’s interesting that Njoku has 131 air yards this season, Bryant has 125, and Hooper has only 71. Njoku has an average depth of target of 13.1 yards, Bryant’s is 12.5 yards, and Hooper’s is 4.4. It would be exciting that Njoku and Bryant are getting these downfield targets if they didn’t have to share them. Unfortunately, both players are averaging 2.5 targets a game. Hooper is averaging 4.0 targets a game but only 6.1 yards per target. It’s a situation worth keeping an eye on since so much of the Browns’ passing game goes through their tight ends, but none of these guys are startable right now.
Jared Cook: A good showing in Week 4 boosted Cook back into TE1 range in fantasy scoring. He now sits at TE12 after a Monday night stat line of 6-70-1 on seven targets. He’ll face a Browns defense that gave up 76 yards and two touchdowns to Travis Kelce in Week 1 but has given up very little to tight ends in the three games since. I have Cook at TE16 this week.