Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Panthers 24.5, Eagles 20.5
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts: My friend Joe Dolan of FantasyPoints.com dropped this interesting factoid the other day: Four times this season Hurts has thrown a TD pass that was called back by penalty and the Eagles wound up not scoring a touchdown. Had those touchdowns counted, Hurts would be the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy instead of the QB3. On the other hand, Hurts hasn’t always looked as good as his fantasy numbers would suggest. He missed TE Zach Ertz and WR Greg Ward on what should have been easy TD throws last week. But the bottom line is that Hurts is piling up fantasy points because he complements his passing numbers with some serious rushing numbers. He’s averaging 56.5 rushing yards per game, and with only one TD run so far, the bag feels a little light. Hurts faces Carolina on Sunday. Warren Sharp of Sharp Football noted this week that the Panthers have been the NFL’s blitz-heaviest team this year, and Hurts has been carving up the blitz, completing 27 of 47 passes for 410 yards and four touchdowns against it. Hurts profiles as a midrange QB1 this week. I won’t invest in him on DraftKings because he’s $7,000 this week, and Trey Lance might be able to perform similar services for $1,300 less.
Sam Darnold: Who would have imagined that Darnold would be this year’s surprise Konami Code quarterback? His five TD runs are the most ever for a quarterback through four games, at least in the Super Bowl era. But Darnold has made noticeable improvements elsewhere, too. He seems to be processing things more quickly when he’s under pressure. There was a play early in last week’s loss to Dallas where Darnold used play-action and then spun to his left, only to find a Dallas defender in his face. Darnold calmly floated a short pass over the defender’s head to D.J. Moore in the left flat for a short gain. It seemed like the sort of play that would have resulted in disaster – a sack or tipped interception – during the young quarterback’s Jets days. Darnold’s matchup against the Eagles this week isn’t especially daunting on paper – statistically, Philly’s pass defense is slightly below average – but the Eagles’ D has been a run funnel, with opponents running the ball on 52% of their offensive plays. Only the Lions and Eagles have faced more runs than passes this year. For that reason I’m fading Darnold this week, putting him at QB17.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell: After combining for three carries in Week 3, Sanders and Gainwell had 10 combined carries in a 42-30 loss to the Chiefs last Sunday. Philadelphia’s offensive line has once again turned into a mess, with guards Isaac Seumalo and Brandon Brooks on IR, and Lane Johnson away from the team last week due to personal reasons. Johnson is expected back this week, but will the Eagles show any more dedication to the run against a Carolina run defense that ranks eighth in DVOA? Sanders has played nearly twice as many snaps as Gainwell, but Gainwell has 40.3 fantasy points vs. 34.9 for Sanders. I think there are better days ahead for Sanders, but I have him as a high-end RB3 this week. Gainwell is a high-end RB4.
Christian McCaffrey and Chuba Hubbard: Surprise! McCaffrey returned to practice this week, though it’s not clear what his chances of playing in Week 5 are. And if he plays, can we expect a full workload? McCaffrey investors will have to pay close attention to the updates in the coming days. For now, I have McCaffrey out of my rankings, but if he plays, he’ll be a must-start against an Eagles defense that’s given up 601 rushing yards, more than any other team except the Seahawks. If McCaffrey sits again, Hubbard will be a mid-range RB2.
Wide Receivers
DeVonta Smith: The Slim Reaper had 7-122-0 on 10 targets against the Chiefs last week and could have enjoyed even better numbers if he hadn’t stepped out of bounds to negate a TD catch. Smith’s average depth of target is a robust 14.4 yards, which suggests that there are plenty of big plays and big days ahead. Smith may see a lot of Donte Jackson this week – not an easy matchup, but not a skull-and-crossbones matchup either. Consider him a high-end WR3.
Jalen Reagor: In a Week 4 shootout against the Chiefs where Eagles QB Jalen Hurts attempted 48 passes, Reagor drew a single target. Not good. Reagor hasn’t topped 53 receiving yards in a game this season, and he’s averaging 5.8 yards per target. He’s outside the top 60 at receiver this week and droppable in most leagues.
D.J. Moore: Moore’s best play last week wasn’t either of his two TD catches; it was a remarkable catch-and-run where he made a Spider-Man move to somehow keep his knee from touching down after contact, then picked up a chunk of additional yardage on a 29-yard gain. Moore’s receiving numbers in his first four games: 6-80-0, 8-79-1, 8-126-0, and 8-113-2. Moore’s ascent to stardom has been a fun ride. He’s a midrange WR1 this week.
Robby Anderson: He saw a season-high 11 targets in Week 4, but (sigh) they resulted in five catches for 46 yards. D.J. Moore continues to smash on a weekly basis, and now Christian McCaffrey is on the verge of returning from a hamstring injury, putting further pressure on Robby’s withering target total. Robby is my WR48 this week and not a DFS consideration.
Terrace Marshall: The rookie ran routes on 78.3% of Sam Darnold‘s Week 4 dropbacks, yet Marshall saw just three targets and has one catch for two yards. Marshall is going to be a stud, but with D.J. Moore balling out every week, Christian McCaffrey about to return from a hamstring injury, and Robby Anderson still around, there’s not enough target volume to keep Marshall fantasy-relevant in the present. He’s droppable in most leagues.
Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz: Goedert is a sell-high candidate. He’s TE7 in fantasy scoring, but he’s doing it with unsustainable efficiency. He’s seeing just four targets per game but averaging a remarkable 11.8 yards per target. Ertz has out-targeted Goedert 19-16 on fewer snaps, but Ertz hasn’t been nearly as efficient as his counterpart and sits at TE17. Goedert is a low-end TE1 this week, Ertz a midrange TE2.
Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble: Thomas played about twice as many snaps as Tremble in the Panthers’ first game since the Dan Arnold trade. Neither of the Carolina tight ends is rosterable yet.
New Orleans Saints vs Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Saints 23, Washington 21.5
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston: Winston’s 23 pass attempts in Week 4 were a new season-high. He’s averaging 153.3 passing yards per game, and he’s always in danger of having TD opportunities poached by Taysom Hill near the goal line. It’s an unpalatable setup, even with the Saints preparing to face a surprisingly bad Washington pass defense. The Football Team’s pass defense is 29th in DVOA and has given up 10 TD passes. Still, Winston is barely even playable in superflex leagues.
Taylor Heinicke: Since taking over as the starter for the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 2, Heinicke has quietly been the QB8 in fantasy scoring, averaging 23.8 fantasy points per game. He’ll be going up against a good Saints pass defense that ranks fourth in opponent passer rating and sixth in DVOA. But the Saints’ defense has also been a pass funnel, with opponents throwing on 67% of their plays. Heinicke could be looking at increased pass volume but decreased efficiency in this one. I have him at QB21, but his range of potential outcomes is wide.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara: I hinted at my discomfort with Kamara’s new and radically different role in last week’s Primer, and this week I’m going to take it a step further by recommending that Kamara stakeholders trade him while they can still get a decent return. Kamara is averaging 19.5 carries per game. If this were another RB, we’d be turning backflips over that kind of usage. But Kamara’s role in the passing game is withering. He has 10-62-2 receiving on 14 targets so far this season. He’s also been inefficient as both a runner and receiver, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per target. He’s basically a younger, glitzier version of Mike Davis. Also, the Saints’ offense has been operating at the slowest pace in the league so far. Oh, and it’s worth mentioning Sean Payton’s weird obsession with putting the ball in Taysom Hill‘s hands near the goal line. Here’s an example of how kooky things have become with Kamara. Through the first four games of 2020, Kamara was the RB1 on 50 carries. Through the first four games of 2021, he’s the RB14 on 78 carries. The difference? He had 30 catches at this time a year ago. Maybe things will change when the Saints get WRs Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith back and can potentially open up the offense. Or maybe this new offensive approach is going to stick now that Drew Brees is gone for good. I think the smart play is to take advantage of Kamara’s name-brand value and trade him now. Of course, I could have egg on my face a week from now if Kamara lights up the Washington Football Team in Week 5. Washington is giving up 20.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and Kamara is shouldering a massive workload these days. But this new production profile gives me sweaty palms, and I don’t think we’ll see Kamara finish as one of the top fantasy scorers at running back this year.
Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: Gibson’s modest usage in the passing game continues to vex his investors, particularly when they see McKissic play in Washington’s hurry-up offense and pile up fantasy points in just a drive or two. Actually, that’s only happened for McKissic in two games, and he was basically a non-factor in the other two. We can’t predict Washington’s hurry-up usage with any degree of confidence, so McKissic is only playable in larger leagues with multiple flex spots. Gibson has scored a touchdown in each of his last two games, but the 2021 breakout game still hasn’t arrived, and we may not see it this week against a Saints defense that’s giving up 66.0 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. New Orleans has allowed 14.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, the eighth-lowest total in the league.
Wide Receivers
Marquez Callaway: I feel obligated to discuss at least one New Orleans wide receiver. But with the Saints averaging 22.5 pass attempts per game, none of the New Orleans receivers are usable fantasy assets until Michael Thomas comes back from his ankle injury.
Terry McLaurin: In one of the best WR-CB matchups of the week, McLaurin should get plenty of face time with the Saints’ Marshon Lattimore, who seems to be his old self again after a down year in 2020. McLaurin is coming off a 6-123-2 game against the Falcons, and he’s currently the WR6 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Opponents have been throwing against the Saints’ pass-funnel defense on 67% of their offensive plays, so there’s a reasonable chance that McLaurin could see double-digit targets. I’m fading him just a bit due to the matchup and also due to the Saints’ preferred pace, the slowest in the league. McLaurin is a high-end WR2 for me this week.
Curtis Samuel: In his first game back from a groin injury, Samuel caught 4 of 4 targets for 19 yards. With Dyami Brown questionable due to a knee injury, Samuel should get more than the 25 snaps he saw in Week 4. Still, I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Samuel in season-long leagues, ranking him at WR63 this week.
Juwan Johnson and Adam Trautman: Neither of these guys is rosterable. Juwan Johnson had his third TD catch of the season last week, but with three touchdowns on 10 targets, he makes 2020 Robert Tonyan look inefficient by comparison. Trautman has 4-21-0 through four games.
Ricky Seals-Jones: Logan Thomas strained his hamstring in Week 4 and landed on IR. Ricky Seals-Jones played 93% of Washington’s offensive snaps last week and had 2-19-0 on four targets. Seals-Jones is an intriguing talent with a 98th percentile SPARQ-X score and a career average of 12.9 yards per catch (but a career catch rate barely above 50%). Seals-Jones could be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues, but he’s not an attractive play this week against a Saints’ defense that’s giving up 4.4 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Titans 26.25, Jaguars 22.25
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: The outlook for Tannehill depends largely on the health of his wide receivers. As of midweek, A.J. Brown was back at practice on a limited basis, but Julio Jones still wasn’t practicing. Getting even one of them back would be big for Tannehill, who was an inefficient 30 of 49 for 298 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against the Jets in Week 4, which made him the QB17 for the week. Tennessee’s Week 5 opponent, Jacksonville, may have the worst pass defense in the league. The Jaguars are allowing opponents to complete passes at a rate of 75.2%, and for 9.6 yards per attempt. Their opponent passer rating of 116.8 is the second-worst in the league, better than only the Falcons. Tannehill currently has a placeholder ranking of QB18, but he’ll move up if he gets at least one of his starting receivers back.
Trevor Lawrence: The rookie turned in an efficient performance against the Jaguars last week in a 24-21 loss, completing 17 of 24 passes for 204 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. He also had 36 rushing yards and the first TD run of his career. It could have been two TD runs, but Lawrence was stopped short of the goal line when the Jaguars went for it on fourth-and-goal at the Cincinnati 1-yard line at the end of the first half to try to open up a 21-0 lead. Lawrence faces a mediocre Titans passing defense that ranks 25th in DVOA. I have Lawrence at QB22 this week, which makes him playable in superflex leagues. But I think it’s fair to wonder what sort of effort the Jaguars are going to turn in this weekend after a weird week in which Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer came under fire for an embarrassing video of him taken in an Ohio bar.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: The numbers Henry is piling up defy the imagination. He has a league-high 113 carries, 30 more than his next-closest pursuer. That puts him on pace for 480 carries this season, which would shatter Larry Johnson’s record of 416. Henry’s 510 rushing yards are 148 more than second-place Nick Chubb has. That’s a 2,167-yard pace, which would break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. Henry is averaging 31.8 touches a game, which is just shy of eight touches per quarter. The man is indestructible. Henry faces a Jacksonville defense that he smoked for 215 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 14 of 2020. In 10 career games against the Jaguars, Henry has averaged 101.3 rushing yards and 1.2 touchdowns, and yet 101 rushing yards and a touchdown would feel like a massive disappointment to Henry investors this week. DraftKings seemingly can’t set Henry’s price high enough to steer DFS players away, and his $9,000 price tag this week isn’t going to do it.
James Robinson: Reassuming the workhorse role he had in 2020, Robinson had handled 40 touches over his last two games, making him the RB6 in fantasy scoring over that span. Even if backup Carlos Hyde returns from a shoulder injury that kept him out of Week 3, fire up Robinson with confidence in season-long leagues against a Titans’ run defense that ranks 24th in DVOA. He’s a low-end RB1 and a strong DraftKings value play at $6,000.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown and Julio Jones: The Titans’ top two receivers both missed Week 4 with hamstring injuries. Brown was back in practice Wednesday on a limited basis. Jones was not. There isn’t much to say here. You’re playing Brown if he’s healthy and praying for a full snap count and no hammy aggravation. Jones is probably a more conditional call if he’s able to get in a late-week practice.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Josh Reynolds, and Chester Rogers: These three are listed in order of their Week 4 snap counts, and I also think that’s the hierarchy for fantasy purposes. Even if only one of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones comes back for Week 4, these three are probably rendered unplayable. I’m not sure any of them are playable even if Brown and Jones are both out again, since the Titans are so run-heavy and their target distribution would be so unpredictable.
Marvin Jones: Will D.J. Chark‘s season-ending ankle injury boost Jones’s value? The intuitive answer is “yes,” but I’m not so sure. Chark had an average depth of target of 16.3 yards, and the deep threat he posed might have made it easier for Jones to work at slightly lesser target depths. Jones now seems destined to run more of his routes against opponents’ top outside cornerbacks, who might have otherwise been covering Chark. Sure, there’s probably going to be some extra target volume for Jones as a result of the Chark injury, but I’m not positive the result will be a net value gain. I have Jones as a midrange WR3 this week.
Laviska Shenault: While the season-ending injury may or may not enhance the fantasy value of Marvin Jones, I feel pretty confident it will enhance the value of Shenault. Viska’s low average depth of target should creep up now that the Jaguars don’t have two other high-quality vertical receivers running deeper routes, and there’s also bound to be some target spillover. Shenault had 6-99-0 on seven targets in the Thursday-night loss to the Bengals last week, and his longest catch was a 52-yarder that was mostly air yardage. I have Shenault at WR41 this week, and I’m not sure that adequately reflects my enthusiasm for his rest-of-season outlook.
Tight Ends
Anthony Firkser: In his first game back from a knee injury that sidelined him in Weeks 2-3, Firkser caught 3 of 5 targets for 23 yards, but he ran routes on 72% of Ryan Tannehill‘s dropbacks, which would seem to bode well for Firkser’s usage going forward. The Jaguars haven’t faced a quality pass-catching tight end other than Noah Fant, and yet they’re allowing 10.6 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Cincinnati’s C.J. Uzomah dropped a couple of touchdowns on the Jags last Thursday. Firkser is my TE26 this week.
Dan Arnold and Jacob Hollister: Arnold had 2-29-0 on two targets in his first game with the Jaguars following a Sept. 27 trade. The two targets led all Jaguars’ tight ends last week, but four different tight ends had at least one target. Arnold isn’t a viable fantasy option at the moment.
Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -10.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 29.25, Dolphins 18.75
Quarterbacks
Jacoby Brissett: Quarterbacks who face the Buccaneers in 2021 are generally going to be good fantasy options. The Buccaneers have an extreme pass-funnel defense. They’re yielding just 2.7 yards per carry, and they’re having major injury problems at cornerback, with Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting all hurt. Opponents have thrown against the Buccaneers on 73% of their offensive plays. The Patriots made little effort to run against Tampa in Week 4, giving their running backs six carries while letting rookie QB Mac Jones attempt 40 passes. But can ramped-up pass volume make Brissett fantasy-viable in what could be his last start before the potential return of Tua Tagovailoa in Week 6? Don’t bet on it. Brissett hoisted up 49 passes in a Week 3 start against the Raiders and finished with 215 yards and zero touchdowns. Plus, Brissett will be down a receiver since Will Fuller will be out with a broken finger. Brissett checks in at QB28 this week.
Tom Brady: The Patriots managed to prevent Brady from throwing any TD passes in his return to New England, and he has only one TD pass in his last two games after throwing nine in the first two weeks. Consider it more of an anomaly than a worrisome trend. It’s possible the Buccaneers will be slightly run-heavier than usual this week since Miami’s defense has been something of a run funnel to date, but there’s no way a Brady-led, Bruce Arians-engineered offense is going to be overly conservative. Brady is a midrange QB1, as usual. I’m passing on him in DraftKings contests at a cost of $7,400.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin and Malcolm Brown: Remember when the Dolphins gave us a head fake by starting Brown over Gaskin in their first preseason game? It seemed to be a one-off, with Gaskin returning to primacy in the backfield soon after. But now? Brown has started the last two games, and here are Gaskin’s snap counts week by week: 29, 45, 43, 12. Gaskin had just two carries for three yards against the Colts last weekend and wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Brown wasn’t especially effective in the loss to the Colts either, rushing eight times for 23 yards and catching one pass for four yards. Salvon Ahmed played five snaps and touched the ball on each of them, rushing three times for one yard and catching two passes for 12 yards. This is a gross, completely inscrutable backfield, and there’s no reason to use any of these guys in a matchup against a Tampa Bay defense that completely smothers the run.
Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones: Fournette could be on the way to having the sort of fantasy value people thought he might have when he was the fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft. He played 83% of the Buccaneers’ offensive snaps in their Week 4 win over the Patriots, finishing with 20-91-0 rushing and 3-47-0 receiving. The eventual return of Giovani Bernard from a sprained MCL will cut into Fournette’s role in the passing game, but he’s the only option there for the time being since Jones is a complete liability as a pass-catcher. Fournette is a midrange RB2 this week in a matchup against a Miami defense that’s giving up 23.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Fournette wound up as a top-five running back in Week 5. At $5,200, he’s a screaming DraftKings bargain. RoJo, meanwhile, is unplayable for now after playing just 13 snaps against the Patriots.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle: After catching 12 passes on 13 targets in Week 3, Waddle saw only four targets in Week 4 and finished with a 3-33-0 stat line. He’s one of the trickiest guys to rank for Week 5. The Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense, and Waddle’s target volume could go through the roof with Will Fuller out with a broken finger. But Waddle is also tethered to QB Jacoby Brissett for at least one more week, making the potential floor and the potential ceiling uncomfortably low. I have Waddle ranked WR37 this week, and I anticipate that he’s going to be the subject of a lot of start/sit dilemmas on Sunday morning. He’s less of a dilemma in DraftKings contests, where his affordable $4,800 price tag makes him one of the best low-cost options at wide receiver.
DeVante Parker: Parker already has three drops this season, but he made some difficult catches against the Colts in Week 4 and had 4-77-1 on nine targets. Pretty much everything I wrote about Jaylen Waddle above applies to Parker, too. The Buccaneers’ terrific run defense entices opponents to throw, and the Buccaneers have major injury woes at cornerback. It’s a great setup for opposing wideouts, but Dolphins QB Jacoby Brissett is a wild card. I have Parker ranked one spot behind Waddle at WR38. Parker costs $600 more than Waddle on DraftKings, which will steer me away from him.
Chris Godwin: Godwin wins the Buccaneers’ matchup lottery this week. Miami’s outside cornerbacks are tough, but slot corner Justin Coleman is beatable. Godwin’s target counts so far this season: 13, 5, 7, 5. He’s been highly efficient, averaging 9.9 yards per target, but the target volume in recent weeks hasn’t been what Godwin stakeholders were looking for. Maybe that changes this week with the favorable matchup. Consider Godwin a high-end WR2 this week. He’s not a bad DraftKings investment at $6,200, though not a massive bargain.
Mike Evans: Evans’ 31 targets over the last three weeks are the most of any Buccaneers receiver by far, and he had at least 75 receiving yards in each of those games. The usage trends are encouraging, but Evans has a tough draw this week against Dolphins CB Xavien Howard, which is why he’s only a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. His $6,800 DraftKings price doesn’t reflect the difficulty of the matchup.
Antonio Brown: Brown’s 7-63-0 night against the Patriots last Sunday could have been a lot better if he’d been able to haul in what should have been a late 30-yard TD catch. Brown saw 11 targets after missing Week 3 while on the COVID list. It’s not clear who he’ll be facing on most of his snaps this week. Byron Jones is one possibility, but he’s dealing with a quad issue. If Jones can’t go, Nik Needham would probably go against Brown on most snaps. Consider Brown a high-end WR3.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki: The Buccaneers have thus far allowed 9-65-0 to the Cowboys’ Dalton Schultz/Blake Jarwin combo, 5-73-0 to the Falcons’ Kyle Pitts, 5-40-1 to the Rams’ Tyler Higbee, and 7-46-2 to the Patriots’ Hunter Henry/Jonnu Smith tandem. Since Week 2, Gesicki has been the TE4 in fantasy scoring, averaging 11.1 points per game. He’s ranked TE7 for me this week, and Gesicki is going to be a core play for me in DraftKings contests at only $4,200.
Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard: Rob Gronkowski Missed Week 4 with broken ribs and a collapsed lung, and it seems likely he’ll miss another game. In his absence last week, Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard each played about two-thirds of the Bucs’ offensive snaps, but Brate had six targets on 28 routes, while Howard had only one target on 12 routes. Brate is a reasonable play this week for the TE-needy. I have him at TE18. Howard is a low-end TE3.
This season, the Primer is presented by Pristine Auction. They are going to be providing giveaways throughout the season. See below for how to win a signed Najee Harris jersey!
