We luckily made it through the particularly awful bye week, so now we just have the regular bye weeks to deal with. This week is a light one with only the Ravens and Raiders on bye, but after this, we have four teams per week on bye for a bit.
As always, the below highlights a few players that are overvalued or undervalued compared to their FantasyPros ECR ranking, using Half-PPR scoring. Pray for me that Brady doesn’t throw for 100 touchdowns. Thanks.
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Quarterbacks
Overvalued
Tom Brady (TB): QB6
As amazing as Brady has been this season, he has been shaky on the road. He averages only one passing touchdown per game on the road, compared to a massive 4.5 touchdowns per game at home. The Saints are second-best in the league against opposing quarterbacks and have only allowed more than 19 fantasy points in one game this season (to, you guessed it, Daniel Jones).
Undervalued
Carson Wentz (IND): QB15
Wentz has been oddly consistent this season, with only one game below 17 fantasy points, yet no games above 22.6 fantasy points. His only poor game this season was actually away at Tennessee in Week 3. Wentz has two passing touchdowns in the last four games, and he only has one interception all year. Tennessee is the sixth-worst in the league against opposing quarterbacks, and Wentz should continue his above-average form.
Running Backs
Overvalued
Austin Ekeler (LAC): RB5
Ekeler was added to the injury report late in the week seemingly out of nowhere, and the Patriots are solid against opposing running backs. They’ve allowed a decent bit of yardage, but only one opposing running back has scored a rushing touchdown against the Patriots this season. Ekeler’s health and the Patriots’ stout defensive front have me drifting away from Ekeler as a surefire RB1 this week.
Undervalued
James Robinson (JAX): RB12
For those of you that read this weekly, you may remember me in full panic about Robinson’s share of the carries early in the season. In the four games since Week 3, he has at least 15 carries every game and has scored five total touchdowns. The Seahawks have been struggling to score with Geno Smith at the helm, and the Jaguars should keep this close enough for Robinson to flirt with 20 carries. His upside is massive in Week 8.
Wide Receivers
Overvalued
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): WR3
I can already see Chase running down the field by himself and making me look dumb, but he’s really the only highly-ranked receiver with a question mark. The Jets are actually pretty good against opposing wide receivers, but that’s probably because most teams can run on them for most of the game. They’ve only allowed three receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. You aren’t benching him, but this might be a quieter week for Chase.
Undervalued
Calvin Ridley (ATL): WR16
Ridley has averaged over 10 targets per game this season, but his production has been nothing more than pretty solid, as his best yardage outing this season is 80 yards. Ridley is a strong positive regression candidate, and his stats are just begging for a 12-catch 140-yard performance. It’s coming.
Tight Ends
Undervalued
Evan Engram (NYG): TE15
Tight ends are always brutal, so Engram is probably in contention to start for you this week, especially with guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and Dawson Knox unavailable. Engram had six receptions on eight targets last week, and the Chiefs have allowed touchdowns to opposing tight ends in four straight games. They do have a primetime game, and Engram is questionable, so obviously monitor his health before you get locked into a bad choice.
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Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.
