On Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars finally got off the schneid, breaking their 20-game losing streak with a 23-20 victory over the Dolphins in London. Matthew Wright kicked a 53-yard field goal as time expired to save the Jags from a 21st loss while also saving the poor fans in attendance from an extra period of terrible football.
Wright made all three field-goal attempts on the day and two extra points to finish as the No.1 kicker of the week. Not surprisingly, Wright had a 0% roster rate on Yahoo and most sites, so almost nobody benefitted from the breakout performance.
How crazy was Wright leading the fantasy world in kicker points in Week 6? Up to that point, the Jags had not made a single field goal in five games!
Josh Lambo had three field-goal tries in three games to start the season, and Wright missed is one prior try before Sunday’s 16-point performance. The two players also have a combined three missed extra points in 14 tries, not exactly the type of team or player you want to target in fantasy. However, Wright will remember this day for the rest of his life and should get another chance to keep the kicking job in Jacksonville for the remainder of the season.
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Week 6 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Seattle: 35% roster percentage on Yahoo
Boswell tied Greg Zuerlein for third place this week with 13 fantasy points, including a game-winning kick in overtime. A few weeks ago, I wrote about how if the Steelers continue to struggle in the red zone, Boswell would have fantasy value going forward. With 31 fantasy points over his last three games, it looks like that prediction has come true. The Steelers are on bye this week, so he will get dropped in most leagues. But don’t be surprised to see him produce again with matchups against the Browns and Bears, two tough defenses.
Evan McPherson (CIN) vs. Detroit: 8% roster percentage on Yahoo
Rookie Evan McPherson posted his second 11-point game of the season with two field goals and four extra points in a lopsided road victory over the hapless Lions. The rookie from Florida has made 70% of his kicks and all 17 of his extra points on the season. The fact that he has just two games over ten or more points in six weeks makes him not a great target, but he is someone to watch as the Bengals offense is starting to improve.
Week 6 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Ryan Succop (TB) @ Philadelphia: 89% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Bucs are a top-12 offense in red-zone efficiency, and there are going to be times in which Tom Brady and the offense do not need to kick field goals because they are too darn efficient making touchdowns. The floor from extra points is always nice, but to get into double figures, you need multiple field-goal tries. There will be better days for Succop, and I project him to be a top-10 kicker down the stretch and the No.1 kicker this week.
Week 7 Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 5th in red-zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 27. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 7.
Chase McLaughlin (CLE) vs. Denver 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
McLaughlin burned fantasy managers last week with two fantasy points in a blowout loss at home to the Cardinals. The game script in that game went sideways quickly, and injuries to the Browns did not make things any better. This week's Thursday night matchup projects to be different, with a low-scoring Broncos offense heading to Cleveland. The one worry here is the wind, which could gust as high as 25 MPH. McLaughlin has the best K Score of the week despite a weather risk and could be a top-10 play.
Graham Gano (NYG) vs. Carolina 12% roster percentage on Yahoo
Gano continues to have a solid K Score, with the Giants ranking 16th in yards per game and dead last in red-zone efficiency. He is a risky, boom-bust play who is just as likely to get you two points as 15. If you are looking for a home run play and someone who could win you a week, a home matchup against the Panthers projects to be solid for Gano.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Tristian Vizcaino (LAC) at Baltimore 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 19
- My Rank: 11
- Week 6 Finish: 30
My first really bad pick of the year. There are times when game scripts go sideways, and teams get blown out in situations that are not at all predictable. I'm not sure how the Ravens can give up over 400 yards passing to Carson Wentz, only to shut down a much better offense like the Chargers the following week. No excuses. Just a miss.
Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) vs. Houston 51% roster percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 23
- My Rank: 7
- Week 6 Finish: T13
Blankenship was a late inactive and was replaced by veteran Michael Badgley. Badgley would take advantage of the K Score in this game, with a field goal and four extra points for eight points on the day. No great, but he did come just one point away from finishing as a K1 on the week.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Nick Folk (NE) vs. NY Jets 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
The Patriots are the second-worst red-zone offense in the league, and the Jets are the second-best red-zone defense, making Folk the perfect K Score target, and he is available in most leagues. Snatch him up and expect a floor of eight points and a possible top-5 finish. He is dealing with an injury, so monitor his status before the game and make sure he is active.
Other players to consider
- Chase McLaughlin (CLE) vs. Denver 30% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.