Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 8 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. I’ll pause here for everyone to take their D’Ernest Johnson Week 7 victory lap, especially if you grabbed him for $5,700 on FanDuel. We had some success identifying value last week, but we have a new week and a new slate in front of us.
Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. We had a ton of bye weeks to work around last week, which also means we have a ton of players with prices based on Week 6 performances and Week 8 matchups. We’ll be targeting a few of those players this week.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 8 of the DFS Pricing Exploitation series. I’ll pause here for everyone to take their D’Ernest Johnson Week 7 victory lap, especially if you grabbed him for $5,700 on FanDuel. We had some success identifying value last week, but we have a new week and a new slate in front of us.
Every week in this space, we’ll take a look at pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel and identify our favorite quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends based on how we can best take advantage of recent changes to those prices. We had a ton of bye weeks to work around last week, which also means we have a ton of players with prices based on Week 6 performances and Week 8 matchups. We’ll be targeting a few of those players this week.
Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Quarterbacks
FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence (JAC - QB) vs. SEA, $6,700 (N/A)
The Jaguars had their bye week in Week 7 and have a somewhat favorable matchup against the Seahawks in Week 8. Trevor Lawrence led the Jags to their first win in a long time in Week 6 when they defeated the Dolphins in London in Week 6. Lawrence has finished as a QB1 twice this season and seems to be gradually getting better every week. After throwing seven interceptions through his first three games, he has thrown just one interception over his last three games. At $6,700 on FanDuel, he is priced as QB27 this week. I have him valued just outside of QB1 numbers, so there is a wide gap there as far as I am concerned.
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes II (KC - QB) vs. NYG, $7,900 (-$500)
It's rare that we discuss Patrick Mahomes as a value because he is typically one of the most expensive quarterbacks. That's still true since he is QB3 in terms of price this week, but $7,900 against the Giants still feels like a value on DraftKings. This is a bounceback matchup for the Chiefs, and it happens to fall on Monday Night Football. Despite the team's struggles and the interceptions Mahomes has thrown this season, Week 7 against the Titans was the first time he finished outside of QB1 territory this season. I'm expecting Mahomes to shine under the lights against a susceptible Giants defense, so I'm taking what I am considering a discount on DraftKings.
Running Backs
FanDuel
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR - RB) vs. HOU, $7,700 (-$300)
Despite this matchup against the Houston Texans, Darrell Henderson isn't priced as an RB1 on FanDuel in Week 8. That's partly because he didn't produce against a bad Lions team in Week 7, but he finished as RB4 overall in Week 6 against the Giants. He received 18 touches in Week 7 and has been hovering around 20 touches per game all season. After a bit of a letdown performance against the Lions, I'm expecting the Rams to get out to an early lead and spend a lot of time running the ball in the second half of this one. Henderson should receive plenty of opportunities once again, and it's likely he finds the end zone at least once.
DraftKings
Aaron Jones (GB - RB) vs. ARI, $6,900 (-$600)
The Packers have quite the COVID outbreak on their hands, and it's looking like they will be without at least a couple of their skill position playmakers against the Cardinals. I love targeting high-end offensive players for Thursday night games because the game plans are typically simplified, and that means feeding the ball to your studs against defenses that don't have much time to prepare. The Packers are going to have to give the ball to someone on Thursday, and I'm banking on a heavy workload for Aaron Jones.
Wide Receivers
FanDuel
Stefon Diggs (BUF - WR) vs. MIA, $7,300 (N/A)
Despite catching nine of his 11 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown against the Titans in Week 6, Diggs's price is unchanged coming out of the Week 7 bye. At $7,300, he isn't even a WR1 on FanDuel. He's actually WR18 overall, making him a mid-range WR2. I have him projected as a mid-range WR1, so there is a substantial disagreement in value there. Diggs is likely being punished because of his inconsistent start to the season, but he has received double-digit targets in three of his last four games and four of his six games overall this season. The production is coming, and quarterback Josh Allen is going to continue to look for Diggs in the passing game.
DraftKings
Randall Cobb (GB - WR) vs. ARI, $3,500 (-$500)
The Packers are probably without Davante Adams and are definitely without Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury. That pushes Cobb improbably to the top of the wide receiver depth chart in Green Bay. Cobb hasn't done much this season, but he is a veteran NFL wide receiver who has a heck of a track record playing with Aaron Rodgers. If he is indeed Rodgers's top target in Week 8, he could be the best value of the week at $3,500 on DraftKings, especially when you consider this is a Thursday night game.
Tight Ends
FanDuel
Dallas Goedert (PHI - TE) vs. DET, $5,900 ($0)
We talked about these same two tight ends last week, but they were the same two who stood out when going over the numbers again this week. After missing a game due to COVID, Goedert appeared in his first game as "the guy" at tight end for the Eagles in the wake of the Ertz trade. He produced a season-high 70 yards receiving while also receiving five targets, which tied a season-high. I expect second-year quarterback to continue to look Goedert's way in the passing game, especially with some of Philadelphia's young wideouts struggling. At $5,900, Goedert is TE8 on FanDuel this week, which feels way too low.
DraftKings
Zach Ertz (ARI - TE) vs. GB, $4,400 (+$500)
In his first game with the Cardinals, Ertz played 35 snaps and caught three of his five targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Thursday night games usually mean simplified game plans, which is perfect for a player like Ertz who is still learning the Arizona playbook. The Cardinals are going to give him everything he can handle, and his playing time and production should only increase going forward. At $4,400, he is TE12 on DraftKings this week.
Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.