Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Packers -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Packers 26, Steelers 19.5
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben looks cooked. On Sunday he badly overshot James Washington down the left sideline on what could have been about an 80-yard touchdown. It probably would have been an easy pitch-and-catch for Roethlisberger in his heyday. That was one of his few attempts on Sunday to drive the ball downfield, which seems to require great effort these days. The vast majority of his 58 pass attempts in Week 3 were checkdowns, usually to RB Najee Harris, who was targeted 19 times and had 14 receptions. As bad as Roethlisberger looks, his offensive line certainly isn’t doing him any favors. Often, Roethlisberger’s checkdown throws came after he miraculously kept his feet amidst a tidal wave of pass rushers. Most quarterbacks who can manage to hang onto the ball that long eventually throw downfield. Big Ben is fending off pass rushers only to dump the ball off. It’s ugly. Roethlisberger visits Green Bay in Week 4 to face a mediocre Packers pass defense. But could you possibly trust Roethlisberger in a road game? He falls outside QB2 range this week.
Aaron Rodgers: It was surprising that the 49ers’ pass rush wasn’t able to get to Rodgers last week despite the absences of starting left tackle David Bakhtiari, still recovering from a torn ACL, and his replacement, Elgton Jenkins, who had slid over from left guard to protect A-Rod’s blind side. Rodgers was sacked only once and had one of his “A” games, firing pinpoint throws all night in what turned out to be a last-second Packers victory. With his offensive line not at full strength, Packers head coach and play caller Matt LaFleur has made a concerted effort to get the running game going. Rodgers thus ranks 24th in passing attempts with 88, and Rodgers hasn’t thrown more than 33 passes in any of his first three games. That’s probably going to be the gameplan for the Packers again this week. Jenkins seems likely to miss another game, and Bakhtiari won’t return for several weeks. Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt, who missed Week 3 with a groin injury, is reportedly on the way back. If Watt is active, the Steelers will have a dangerous pass rush capable of exploiting the absences along the Packers’ offensive line. A conservative gameplan would lower Rodgers’ ceiling, but he’s too good to fall completely out of QB1 range. He checks in at QB11.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: What a weird start to the rookie’s career. Harris is averaging 3.1 yards per carry behind the worst offensive line in the league. The Steelers rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, adjusted line yards. But Harris’s pass-catching talents are preserving his fantasy value. He leads all running backs in receptions (20) and targets (27). In Week 3, Harris caught 14 of 19 targets for 102 yards to offset a pedestrian 14-40-0 rushing day. This is the profile of a top-10 running back, though it’s one of the stranger profiles of a high-end RB you’ll ever see. Start him with confidence, and don’t hesitate to throw him into DraftKings lineups at a cost of $6,800.
Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon: Jones turned out to be a terrific first-round pick in this year’s fantasy drafts. He’s RB2 in fantasy scoring even accounting for Green Bay’s Week 1 debacle, in which he had just 22 yards from scrimmage. The four-TD game in Week 2 may have been a bit fluky, but Jones is getting ample carries and enhanced usage in the passing game following the offseason departure of Jamaal Williams. Even against a good Pittsburgh run defense, Jones is a midrange RB1. But don’t use him in DraftKings, where his $7,700 price is too high for a running back in a daunting matchup. Dillon, meanwhile, doesn’t have the value we thought he was going to have, and he may not even be a clean handcuff. If anything happened to Jones, the Packers would probably use both Dillon and rookie Kylin Hill, whom they appear to like. Feel free to drop Dillon for a tastier waiver wire morsel.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: A knee injury kept Johnson sidelined in Week 3. He’s expected to resume practicing this week, giving him a good shot to play against the Packers in Week 4. I’m not going to put Johnson into the Week 4 rankings until we get more definitive news that he’s trending toward playing, but if he’s able to go and there are no reports that he’s on a pitch count. He’ll likely fall into WR3 range.
Chase Claypool: The 15 targets that Claypool saw in Week 3 represented the highest target total of his young career. The big target count was the product of a ridiculous 58 passing attempts for the Steelers and the absence of target hog Diontae Johnson, who was out with a knee issue. Claypool converted those targets into nine catches for 96 yards. He’s still looking for his first touchdown and his first 100-yard day of the season, and the fear is that Claypool’s immense talents will be wasted in a year where a dusty Ben Roethlisberger is incapable of supporting more than one quality pass catcher. Treat Claypool as a mid-range WR3 if Dionte Johnson plays this week and as a low-end WR2 if Johnson is out.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: He’s missed practice time with a rib injury this week but is expected to play. JuJu has been held to 52 receiving yards or fewer in all three of his games this season and hasn’t seen a double-digit target total so far. The presence of rookie RB Najee Harris could really kneecap JuJu’s value, since he was soaking up the vast majority of Ben Roethlisberger‘s short-area targets in 2020, but we’re now seeing many of those dump-offs go to Harris. If Dionte Johnson doesn’t play this week, I’ll rank Smith-Schuster as a mid-range WR4. If Johnson plays, JuJu may fall out of the top 50.
Davante Adams: In the two weeks since the Packers’ blowout loss to the Saints in the season opener, Adams has 20-253-1 on 27 targets. He had 253 air yards in Week 3 and is up to 486 air yards for the season. Adams will see Pittsburgh’s top cover man, Joe Haden, on a good number of snaps this Sunday, but Adams is outrageously difficult to cover. He’s a pillar of fantasy lineups and offers value at $7,900 on DraftKings.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: A weekly boom-or-bust proposition, MVS semi-boomed in Week 3, with 59 receiving yards and a TD catch of an Aaron Rodgers laser. But Valdes-Scantling had just 17 receiving yards over his first two games. He checks in at WR57 this week, and at $4,300 he’s a swing-for-the-fences GPP option.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron: Freiermuth’s arrival has pretty much wiped out the fantasy value of Ebron, who hasn’t seen more than three targets in a game this year and is playing only half of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps. Freiermuth’s snap share s only 47%, but he’s out-targeted Ebron 10-7. Neither is playable at the moment, but these two trains are moving in opposite directions, and the Freiermuth Express is the train you’ll eventually want to board.
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is off to a sluggish start, with 6-66-1 on eight targets. Much of his 2020 fantasy value was derived from touchdowns, and we knew TD regression was coming. There was no way he was going to score touchdowns on 21.2% of his catches again. Still, we were hoping for a little bit more than two catches and 22 yards per game. As lean as the TE market is, Tonyan is nevertheless a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2.
Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 22.75, Ravens 21.75
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: The Denver pass defense ranks first in opponent completion percentage (52.4%), yards per pass attempt (5.2) and passer rating (57.8). Those are miserly numbers to be sure, but the Broncos have faced a string of tomato cans: the Giants, Jaguars and Jets. Two of those teams have rookie quarterbacks. The other has Daniel Jones. Facing Lamar Jackson is another matter. But to be fair, Jackson hasn’t faced a defense as good as Denver’s this year. He opened the season against a much-improved Raiders D, but then came matchups with the Chiefs and Lions, who may have two of the league’s worst defenses. Jackson has been throwing deeper downfield in 2021. His average depth of throw has jumped from 8.6 yards last year to 11.7 yards this year. He’s boosted his yards per attempt from 7.3 to 8.7. Of course, the shabby pass defenses he’s faced the last two weeks may have something to do with those numbers. And yet those numbers might look even better if Marquise Brown hadn’t dropped some long throws from Jackson last week against the Lions. No one is benching Jackson due to matchup, but he’s not an appealing DraftKings play at a cost of $7,500.
Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater has been a midrange QB2 for fantasy thus far, but he’s been more valuable than that to the Broncos, completing 76.8% of his throws, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, and not throwing any interceptions. He faces a Baltimore pass defense still dealing with the loss of CB Marcus Peters to a torn ACL just hours before the start of the regular season. But the Broncos have been the fifth run-heaviest team in the league so far, putting the ball in the air on 51.8% of their offensive snaps.
Running Backs
Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, and Devonta Freeman: Baltimore’s narrow Week 3 win over Detroit – thank you, Justin Tucker – left us confused about the Ravens’ backfield. Is Williams still the head of the committee, or is Latavius Murray the chairman now? Did the Ravens abandon the run in that game simply because the Lions’ defense was so banged up and defenseless in the secondary that attacking through the air made the most sense? Williams led the backfield in snap share last week at 50%, Murray was at 33%, and Freeman was at 16%. Murray “led” the Ravens in rushing with 7-28-0, Williams had 5-22-0, and Freeman had 3-8-0. Williams saw the only target for a Baltimore back and failed to catch it. This week probably isn’t a good time to place bets on anyone in this backfield. I have Williams ranked as a low-end RB3 this week and Murray as a high-end RB4. Freeman is an unplayable wild card.
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams: Gordon has out-snapped Williams in each of the last two games. In Week 3, Gordon had 18 carries, Williams 12. But Williams saw more usage in the passing game, drawing four targets while Gordon had two. They both had TD runs, but Williams lost a fourth-quarter fumble. It may be veteran deference on the part of the Broncos, but Gordon seems to be emerging as the 1a in this backfield. But I think you’d have a hard time making the case that Williams has been the better player so far. The Ravens have an above-average run defense, so both of the Denver backs fall into the upper-end RB3 category this week.
Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown: Rewatching the tape of the Ravens’ game against the Lions last week, I calculated that Brown dropped three potential TD passes worth a combined 145 yards. The first one might have gone for 76 yards, although it’s possible a defender could have caught up to Hollywood while he momentarily broke stride to haul in Lamar Jackson‘s pass. (Just humor me, will ya?) The second was a 25-yarder that should have been caught in the end zone. (I’ve heard some people contend that this one was deflected by a Lions defender before it reached Brown, but if that happened, I didn’t see it.) The third could have been a 44-yard touchdown, or maybe Lions safety Tracy Walker would have arrived in time to shove Brown out at the 1. Let’s just say Hollywood left a lot of meat on the bone. Brown isn’t likely to have the same sort of opportunities this week against a strong group of Denver cornerbacks. Consider him a mid-range WR3. At $5,400 on DraftKings, I’d consider him for GPPs because of his boom/bust profile but not in cash games.
Sammy Watkins: He wasn’t as ham-handed as Marquise Brown in Week 3, but Watkins could have pulled in a long throw from Lamar Jackson that appeared to have been partially deflected by a Lions defender just before hitting Watkins in the hands. This might be the last Ravens game before rookie WR Rashod Bateman makes his return from a core injury, so Watkins’ days as a full-timer may be numbered. He’s filled in reasonably well, with 12-208-0. But fade him this week in a difficult matchup. I have him at WR56.
Courtland Sutton: A 5-37-0 performance in Week 3 wasn’t a satisfying encore to Sutton’s 9-159-0 magnum opus in Week 2, but Sutton should be a solid WR2 in the short term. K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week and is out for the season, and Jerry Jeudy is still out with a high-ankle sprain. That should mean a healthy dose of targets for Sutton until Jeudy’s return. And despite the narrative that Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t like to throw deep, Sutton’s average depth of target this year is 16.8 yards, so these are high-cholesterol targets (hat tip to Rich Hribar).
Tim Patrick: With Jerry Jeudy still on the shelf for a few more weeks with a high-ankle sprain and K.J. Hamler out for the season with a torn ACL, the overachieving Patrick is going to be a fixture in the Denver offense and should be rostered in every league. He scored a touchdown in each of his first two games and hung up a 5-98-0 stat line in Week 3, making him the WR26 on the season. I don’t love his probable matchup with Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey this week, but treat Patrick as a lower-end WR3.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews: After a slow start to the season, Andrews had five catches for 109 yards against the Lions in Week 3. He has yet to score his first touchdown of 2021. In Week 4, Andrews faces a Denver defense allowing just 1.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. But that stat is misleading: The Broncos have faced three bad passing attacks and three of the weakest TE groups in the league.
Noah Fant: The Denver tight ends might see some of the target spillover from the injuries to WRs Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. Fant was already a low-end TE1 and may now have midrange TE1 upside. Fant is just the latest high-quality tight end the Ravens will have seen. Baltimore has given up 13.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but the Ravens have this far gone against Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -7
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 28, Patriots 21
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady: At a time of year when high schools and colleges all over the country celebrate homecoming, Brady will make one of the most highly anticipated returns in the history of American sports, coming back to Foxborough, Massachusetts, the place where he played for 20 years and brought home seven Lombardi Trophies. At age 44, Brady is somehow a far more valuable fantasy asset than he was in his mid-to-late 20s. He’s the QB2 in fantasy scoring at the moment, leading the league in pass attempts, completions and touchdowns. His old team won’t be a pushover. The Patriots’ defense ranks second in opponent passer rating and fourth in DVOA against the pass. Brady’s expert consensus ranking is QB5. I feel guilty about “fading” him in his New England homecoming, but I’ve got him at QB6.
Mac Jones: Talk about an unenviable spot. The pressure on Jones to perform at a high level in his fourth NFL start is enormous. If the kid lays an egg in the Tom Brady homecoming game, Patriots fans will never forget it. A lot of people are pulling for the kid, but game management is his game right now, and Brady is showing up for a shootout. I suppose there’s a chance Jones could trade haymakers with the champ for a while. The Buccaneers have a pass-funnel defense: It’s nearly impossible to run on them, but their cornerbacks can be had (as the Rams’ Matthew Stafford demonstrated in Week 3). Still, QB25 is as high as I can get Jones this week. Here’s hoping he makes a good show of it.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones: Giovani Bernard is expected to be out with a sprained MCL, leaving the backfield to Fournette and Jones. This seems like a decent Fournette spot since Jones is nearly useless in the passing game. Jones hasn’t been asked to do much in the running game, either. He has 15 carries for 52 yards on the year. Fournette has played 99 snaps to Jones’ 44 and has out-touched RoJo 36-16. But Fournette hasn’t found the end zone yet, he ranks RB41 in fantasy scoring, and do we really expect the Buccaneers to run the ball in Tom Brady‘s return to New England? Fade both of these guys.
Damien Harris and J.J. Henry: Harris has been the Patriots’ battering ram, but this is a second straight bad matchup for him. Against a tough Saints run defense last week, Harris could only muster 6-14-0 rushing and had two receptions for minus-3 yards. The Buccaneers’ run defense is similarly fierce, and with Harris a complete nonfactor in the passing game, his floor this week is frighteningly low. I have him at RB24 in half-point PPR, but Harris is a dicey play. The subplot is what the Patriots will do with their other running backs now that James White is out for the season. Will Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels use the 5-6, 185-pound J.J. Taylor as a one-for-one White replacement? Will they give rookie Rhamondre Stevenson a mulligan after he lost a fumble on his second-ever NFL touch? Will they turn special-teamer Brandon Bolden into a fantasy-relevant asset? I can’t wait to find out.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin: Godwin has been the rock of the Buccaneers’ WR corps, leading the team in catches (19) and receiving yards (241). Belichick is famed for scheming to take away an opponent’s best weapon. He surely isn’t targeting one of the Buccaneers’ running backs. Does Belichick throw kitchen-sink coverage at Godwin? Or does he calculate that the Buccaneers have too many viable weapons in the passing game to focus on one without creating opportunities for Brady to exploit elsewhere? If the Pats play it straight against Godwin, he’ll likely see a lot of Jonathan Jones – not an easy matchup for either man. I have Godwin at WR13.
Mike Evans: Last week, I wrote about Evans becoming increasingly TD-dependent, so naturally he went out and had an eight-catch, 106-yard game with no touchdowns. Barring special Belichick defensive attention, Evans probably gets the most favorable matchup of the Tampa receivers, drawing Jalen Mills. Evans is ranked as a low-end WR2 this week, though I may regret not ranking him higher.
Antonio Brown: Does this count as a revenge game for Brown, too? Brown spent Week 3 on the COVID-19 list but was expected to rejoin the team Thursday. He’s the most unpredictable of the Buccaneers’ top three receivers (in more ways than one). Brown shredded Dallas for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, then had one catch for 17 yards in Week 2. His range of possible outcomes in Week 4 is wide, but I have him ranked as a low-end WR3.
Jakobi Meyers: This feels like a terrific spot for Meyers, maybe even the right time to predict his first NFL touchdown. The Patriots are going to have trouble running on the Buccaneers, and rookie QB Mac Jones will need to throw some quick-hitting passes to keep the chains moving. His slot man, Meyers, is a prime candidate for those types of targets. The other guy who would have seen those types of targets is James White, who’s out for the season. Maybe Kendrick Bourne inherits some of those looks. Or maybe Meyers simply vacuums up more. Meyers had 9-94-0 last week on 14 targets against another pass-funnel defense: New Orleans. Oh, and he also gets a primo individual matchup against Ross Cockrell, who was destroyed by Rams slot man Cooper Kupp last week. I think Meyers could go off here. His expert consensus ranking is WR32 in half-point PPR, but I have him at WR28.
PRISTINE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Pristine Auction. For Week 4, Jakobi Meyers is Fitz’s Pristine Matchup of the Week.
Nelson Agholor: Maybe elevated passing volume against a pass-funnel defense propels Agholor to a big day. But I just don’t know how well Agholor’s vertical skillset pairs with rookie QB Mac Jones, who’s a dink-and-dunk game manager at this point. Agholor is a low-end WR5 for me this week.
Kendrick Bourne: I don’t think he’s playable in any format, but it’s possible Bourne gets a bunch of short-area targets in this one due to James White‘s absence. I have him at WR65.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski: Gronk took a huge shot to the ribs in Week 3, but do you think he’d miss the Sunday-night party in New England? Not a chance. The Patriots are giving up less than one fantasy point per game (0.9 to be exact) to opposing tight ends. I’ll bet the over on 0.9 fantasy points for Gronk in his Foxborough homecoming.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: It’s been frustrating trying to peg these two, and it probably will be all season. Henry is the TE24 in half-point PPR and Smith is the TE26. But Henry has played considerably more snaps in the last two weeks. Jonnu didn’t do himself any favors last week with a slapstick bobble that turned into an interception, plus another bad drop. I have Henry at TE16, Smith at TE23.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
Date/Time: Monday October 4, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 28, Raiders 24.5
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: It’s pretty amazing that we’re hitting October and Derek Carr‘s lowest single-game yardage total so far is 382. We could see a fun shootout between Carr and Justin Herbert on Monday, though the Raiders and Chargers have both defended the pass respectably this season. You may recall that in his last game against the Chargers, a Thursday-night affair in Week 15 of 2020, Carr was knocked out early and replaced by Marcus Mariota in a 30-27 Chargers victory. Although Carr is posting crazy yardage numbers, he’s still only the QB9 for fantasy scoring. That just shows what a disadvantage non-running quarterbacks have in our silly little game. I have Carr ranked as a top-end QB2 this week.
Justin Herbert: Can you imagine how good the Chargers’ offense could be if they just got this illegal shift thing figured out? Two illegal shift penalties nullified Chargers’ touchdowns in Week 3, and it also happened once in Week 2. But no matter. Herbert has defied fools like me who thought he might be in for a sophomore slump while adjusting to a new system under a new offensive coordinator. He’s averaging 318.7 yards per game and has thrown six TD passes. He’s also gotten the Chargers off to a 2-1 start even though they’ve played three playoff-caliber opponents: Washington, Dallas, and Kansas City. Herbert threw for 300-plus yards and two touchdowns in each of his two starts against the Raiders last year, splitting those two contests. He’s my QB8 this week.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and Peyton Barber: Jacobs is trying to work back from toe and ankle injuries. He may be a game-time decision – a nightmare for his fantasy managers since the Raiders play on Monday night. It’s less of a nightmare for the Jacobs investors who were able to grab Barber from the waiver wire. We thought that Drake’s role might increase when Jacobs had to miss Week 3, but Drake stayed in the same basic satellite-RB/change-of-pace role, while Barber served as a proxy for Jacobs, handling the early-down stuff between the tackles. Barber ran for 111 yards and a touchdown last week, and if Jacobs isn’t able to go, Barber would be a fairly attractive play against a Chargers defense that’s given up a league-high 510 rushing yards and has been smashed by the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Tony Pollard.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler had 132 carries in 2019 – his single-season high. He’s on pace for 198 carries while maintaining an 85-catch pace. If those usage trends stick and he can stay healthy all season (granted, a big “if”), Ekeler will be in the fantasy MVP conversation. He’s my RB3 this week, and he’s a terrific DraftKings play at $7,600
Wide Receivers
Henry Ruggs: The second-year receiver from Alabama has a boom-or-bust fantasy profile. His track record is sparse, his target counts have been thin, and his high average depths of target open the door to variance. So it’s encouraging that Ruggs has turned in two useful fantasy performances in a row, with a 5-113-1 performance against Pittsburgh in Week 2 followed by a game against Miami in which he had 4-78-0 (plus a 7-yard run). The performance against the Dolphins is hardly exciting, but signs that he can give us a sturdy floor instead of a trapdoor should have Ruggs’ investors feeling good. He profiles as a lower-end WR4 simply because that safe floor hasn’t been completely established yet.
Bryan Edwards: Edwards has topped 80 yards in two of three games this year. As with fellow second-year receiver Henry Ruggs, the floor for Edwards doesn’t feel safe yet, but the overall direction is positive. He’s my WR60 this week.
Hunter Renfrow: The Raiders’ slot receiver got his first touchdown of the year last week after making a move that completely flummoxed Miami’s Xavien Howard, one of the best cover men in the game. Renfrow has at least five catches in every game so far in 2021 and is averaging 68 yards per contest. His average depth of target has ticked up from 7.1 yards last year to 8.2 yards this year, and he’s averaging an impressive 12.8 yards per target. He’s quietly becoming one of the most dependable slot men in the game and a bona fide PPR asset.
Mike Williams: It’s no longer a given that Keenan Allen is the most valuable fantasy asset in the Chargers’ WR corps. Williams ranks WR2 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR), averaging 22.2 points per game. He has four TD catches this season and has scored in every game this season. Both of his TD catches last week were high-point numbers that few other receivers in the league could have pulled off. I have Williams ranked WR14, and it feels almost disrespectful. But I do have him ranked one spot ahead of Allen, and DraftKings has him priced $400 higher than Allen.
Keenan Allen: While Mike Williams is blossoming into a superstar, Allen is merely being himself, setting a pace for 187 targets, 119 receptions, and 1,462 yards. The only problem is that with Williams balling out, there may be occasional weeks where only one guy or the other hits. But we’ve learned by now that Allen is one of the safest bets in fantasy. I have him as a high-end WR2, one spot behind Williams, but I think he’s the better DraftKings play at $6,800
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: Waller has had two “down” games since his 10-105-1 stat line in Week 1, collecting 10-119-0 in the two games since. Waller scored a touchdown in both of his games against the Chargers last year, and he’s sure to be a factor again on Monday.
Jared Cook: He’s been fine so far, with 10-111-0 through three games. But with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams balling out to such an extreme degree, I’m not sure what’s going to be left over for Cook. He’s still a high-end TE2 though, which isn’t nothing.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bengals -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bengals 26.5, Jaguars 19
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: Not every rookie quarterback adjusts to the pro game as quickly as Kyler Murray or Justin Herbert. It’s worth remembering that Peyton Manning completed 56.7% of his passes as a rookie in 1998, threw more interceptions (28) than TD passes (26), and averaged 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Some people think Lawrence is the best QB prospect to enter the league since Andrew Luck, whose rookie season was no picnic either. Luck completed 54.1% of his passes as a rookie in 2012, threw 23 TD passes and 18 interceptions, and averaged 7.0 yards per attempt. Through three games, Lawrence is completing 54.1% of his passes, has a TD-INT ratio of 5-7, and is averaging 5.7 yards per attempt. Lawrence’s arm talent is evident, but he’s probably made more bad decisions in his first three games with the Jaguars than he made in three seasons at Clemson. His first good game probably isn’t far off. I don’t know if we’ll see in Week 4, with a short workweek at a date with a Bengals defense that unexpectedly ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Cincinnati has recorded 10 sacks and is allowing only 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Lawrence ranks outside QB2 range this week and is best avoided for fantasy purposes.
Joe Burrow: Burrow’s three-interception nightmare against the Bears in Week 2 was quickly forgotten with a tidy 14-of-18, 172-yard, three-TD performance in a Week 3 road win over the Steelers. After being sacked five times in each of his first three games, Burrow managed to go sackless against the normally fearsome Pittsburgh pass rush. Burrow should have time to throw Thursday night against a Jaguars defense that has recorded only four sacks so far. The Jags are allowing 302.3 passing yards per game and 9.3 yards per pass attempt. It looks like a terrific spot for Burrow on the surface, but he has yet to attempt more than 30 passes in a game this season, and the Jaguars might not be capable of forcing the Bengals into a shootout. I have Burrow ranked QB16.
Running Backs
James Robinson and Carlos Hyde: The snap shares for Robinson and Hyde haven’t fluctuated much over Jacksonville’s first three games – about two-thirds of the offensive snaps for Robinson, one-third for Hyde – but Robinson’s touches have increased each week. His 21 touches against the Cardinals last week netted 134 yards from scrimmage and his first touchdown of the season. It was encouraging to see Robinson catch 6 of 6 targets last week, and there could be more passing-game work ahead. The Jaguars’ opponents this week, the Bengals, have allowed 31 completions to running backs (and fullbacks) so far, though for only 192 yards (6.2 YPC) and no touchdowns. The Week 3 game against Pittsburgh skews those numbers a bit since Najee Harris had 14 catches by himself, but Minnesota completed 11 passes to RBs and FBs against Cincy in Week 1. With Robinson’s receiving prospects looking bright for this game, consider him a mid-range RB2. He also looks like a solid play at $14,100 in the Thursday-night showdown slate at DraftKings. Hyde is a stay-away in a game where the Jaguars are 7.5-point underdogs and aren’t likely to get a run-friendly game script.
Joe Mixon: He ranks second in the league in carries (67) and rushing yards (286), trailing Derrick Henry in both categories. He’ll face a Jacksonville run defense that’s allowing only 3.4 yards per carry, but Mixon will be the best running back the Jaguars have faced this season. With the Bengals a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday night, Mixon manager are salivating at the prospect of a ground-and-pound game script. He’s my RB5 this week and has to be given serious consideration in the DraftKings Thursday-night showdown even at a $16,500 price tag.
Wide Receivers
Marvin Jones: The 31-year-old dean of Jacksonville’s WR corps leads the team with 28 targets and has seen at least eight targets in every game. The Jaguars have a Goldilocks and the Three Bears dynamic going on with the average depth of target for their receivers. D.J. Chark‘s aDOT of 16.3 yards is too high, Laviska Shenault‘s 4.5 is too low, and Jones’s 12.1 is just right. Too high an aDOT is a recipe for inefficiency and streakiness; too low an aDOT inhibits big-play potential. Jones has settled into the sweet spot in between. He’s a midrange WR3 for me this week.
D.J. Chark: With an average depth of target of 16.3 yards and a rookie quarterback throwing to him, Chark has caught only 31.8% of his targets, though he’s averaging 22.0 yards per catch. That’s a recipe for streakiness, and we see it in his weekly fantasy finishes so far: WR20, WR87, WR24. Chark gets the best matchup of any Jaguars WR this week, drawing Eli Apple for most of his snaps. The favorable matchup coupled with his big-play potential make him an almost mandatory play at $10,800 in the DraftKings Thursday-night showdown, though his WR41 ranking makes him a borderline start/sit in a typical 12-team league.
Laviska Shenault: As much as I like Shenault, his current usage is a real bummer. His average depth of target is 4.5 yards, and he has 92 air yards so far this season. To put the latter number into perspective, newly signed WR Kenny Stills had 85 air yards on only three targets in his first game with the Saints. I have Shenault outside the top 50 in my WR rankings.
Ja’Marr Chase: The preseason yips that plagued Chase in August created a discount in a lot of drafts, and the fantasy managers who cashed in are cackling to themselves right now. Chase has found the end zone in each of his first three NFL games, and his two scores last week give him four touchdowns on the season. He ranks WR5 in half-point PPR scoring even though the Bengals rank 31st in pass attempts. Tee Higgins is going to miss another game with a shoulder injury, so Chase’s elevated Week 4 target outlook makes him a low-end WR1.
Auden Tate: Tee Higgins will miss a second consecutive game with a shoulder injury. I wouldn’t use Tate in season-long leagues, but he’s an attractive thrift play at only $600 in the DraftKings Thursday-night showdown.
Tyler Boyd: Currently the WR41 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, Boyd is managing to stay afloat statistically even though the Saints are the only team to have attempted fewer passes than the Bengals so far. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is by no means a conservative play-caller, so chalk up Cincinnati’s lack of passing volume to the vagaries of game script. With an appealing matchup against shaky Jaguars slot corner Chris Claybrooks, Boyd is a high-end WR3 this week and has value at a price of $11,100 in the DraftKings Thursday-night showdown.
Tight Ends
Jacob Hollister and Dan Arnold: Hollister made his Jaguars debut in Week 3 and caught 2 of 6 targets for 15 yards. That sort of target count might have held some promise if not for the trade that brought Arnold to Jacksonville earlier this week. This is still a situation to avoid.
C.J. Uzomah: His target counts through three games: 2, 2, 1. Pass.
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Pat Fitzmaurice is a featured writer and editor at FantasyPros. For more from Pat, check out his archive and follow him @Fitz_FF.
