Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -7
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chiefs 30.75, Eagles 23.75

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs’ star quarterback seems to be taking more risks this year, perhaps because he thinks he must. The Kansas City defense has fallen into a state of disrepair, ranking dead last in DVOA against both the run and the pass, per Football Outsiders. Mahomes threw 12 interceptions in, 2018, his first season as a starter. He hasn’t thrown more than six in any season since, but he’s already been picked off three times this year, and two of them have come on extremely ill-advised throws. But … whatever. We aren’t sweating a handful of Mahomes interceptions, and the demise of the Chiefs defense might turn out to be a splendid thing for Mahomes investors, since it could lead to O.K. Corral game scripts week after week. You’re playing him against the Eagles, of course. But I can’t get on board with Mahomes as a DraftKings selection this week when he costs $100 more than Josh Allen, who’s facing the Texans.

Jalen Hurts: The Eagles completely abandoned the running game against Dallas in Week 3, and … uh … things didn’t go well. Philly’s first three drives resulted in an interception, two three-and-outs and zero first downs. The Eagles’ fourth drive started with a 24-yard run by Miles Sanders, then sputtered. The fifth and final drive before halftime produced another first down, then fizzled. There were only two carries by Eagles running backs in the first half, three in the entire game. Hurts finished QB9 for the week, throwing for 326 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and running nine times for 35 yards. With such a QB-centric gameplan, you’d think Hurts would have either lit it up or stunk it up, but the result was confusingly in between. It left me feeling slightly worse about Hurts’ fantasy value than I did going in. It would be nice to see the Eagles at least pay lip service to the running game and try to set up some play-action throws for Hurts. Anyway, a matchup with a rickety Kansas City defense puts Hurts squarely in QB1 range this week, and there’s potential for mammoth numbers, but I don’t have a good feeling about the Eagles’ offense overall.

Running Backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams: Edwards-Helaire fumbled in the second quarter of the Chiefs’ Week 3 loss to the Chargers, committing a costly turnover for the second straight week. He remained in the game and wound up rushing for 100 yards, hitting that mark for the third time in his career. He also had a TD catch, one of his two receptions. Williams is still getting goal line work, however, so all is not well for CEH investors. He could be just one fumble away from a major haircut in snaps. Edwards-Helaire is my RB17 this week, but the floor is starting to feel shaky.

Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell: After Sanders and Gainwell combined for only three rushing attempts in the Monday-night loss to the Cowboys, maybe the Eagles will endeavor to get the running game going against a Kansas City defense that’s been gashed for 481 rushing yards and seven TD runs. One concern is the loss of starting left guard Isaac Seumalo to a season-ending Lisfranc injury.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill: After a monstrous 11-197-1 performance in Week 1, Hill has produced 8-70-0 in the two games since, so it seems like he’s due for a big performance. The Eagles are giving up only 16.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, but that number is somewhat misleading since Dallas pounded Philly in Week 3 and didn’t need to unleash the full fury of its aerial attack.

Mecole Hardman: Will the signing of Josh Gordon diminish Hardman’s role? You get the sense that the Chiefs have never been entirely comfortable letting the 5-10, 187-pound Hardman and the 5-10, 185-pound Hill play a huge number of snaps together. Hardman has been on the field for 70% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps so far, but he played fewer snaps than 6-1, 202-pound Demarcus Robinson in Week 3, and now the Chiefs are bringing in the 6-3, 225-pound Gordon. Hardman did score a touchdown in Week 3, his first of the season. It was ruled a catch but was really more of a jet-sweep run. Some investors had high hopes for Hardman entering his third NFL season, but he’s currently the WR58 (0.5 PPR), and the Chiefs’ WR room is about to get a little more crowded. He’s out of the top 50 at receiver this week.

DeVonta Smith: After an impressive Week 1 debut, Smith has gone quiet. This could be a nice bounce-back spot against a Chiefs defense that’s allowing 27.5 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Smith is likely to run a majority of routes against Chiefs CB Mike Hughes, and it’s a winnable matchup for the rookie. Smith has slipped into WR4 territory, but that could be too conservative a ranking for the rookie in a game with shootout potential.

Jalen Reagor: Reagor was targeted a season-high eight time in Philly’s Monday-night loss to Dallas, finishing with five catches for 53 yards. I have Reagor outside the top 60 this week, but maybe there’s some sneaky blowup potential in a game with a 54.5-point total.

Quez Watkins: Despite having only seven receptions, Watkins leads the Eagles with 186 receiving yards. Nearly half of that total came on a 91-yard catch in Week 2. He’s averaging 26.6 yards per catch and has caught every single one of his targets so far. Watkins’ home-run speed makes him a player to watch, but miniscule target volume takes him out of lineup consideration.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: He was held without a touchdown first the first time this season, but Kelce still put up 104 yards in the Chiefs’ Week 3 loss to the Chargers. Now he gets to face an Eagles defense that just let the Cowboys’ Dalton Schultz go on an 80-yard, two-TD rampage. Look out.

Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz: Goedert has only played 16 more offensive snaps than Ertz through the first three weeks, and they each have 11 targets. Goedert is doing more damage with his receptions, averaging 16.5 yards per catch, which is why he’s in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 range while Ertz is a low-end TE2.

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cowboys -5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 50.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys  27.75, Panthers 22.75

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold: I’ve mentioned how much I love that after being managed by Adam Gase early in his career, Darnold is now in the good care of Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Another indication of Darnold getting top-notch coaching these days is the Panthers’ elevated passing rate on early downs. The aggressive approach on early downs helps avoid the sort of third-and-long situations that can make a young QB looks bad – and we saw Darnold face a seemingly endless string of third-and-longs with the Jets. This week, Darnold faces a Cowboys defense that shut down the Eagles in Week 3 and has played well ever since being firebombed by the Buccaneers in the season opener. But the Panthers will have had nine full days to prepare for this game, while the Cowboys are on a short work week after the Monday-nighter against Philly. I have Darnold ranked as an upper-end QB2 this week and expect the Panthers to have a shrewd offensive gameplan for this one.

Dak Prescott: Prescott faces a Carolina defense that’s been terrific so far, but the Panthers have faced the Jets, the Texans and the Jameis Winston-led edition of the Saints. They really haven’t been tested yet. Dak will certainly test the Carolina defense. But there’s a small concern with Prescott that perhaps we weren’t anticipating this year: The Dallas defense might be good. This wasn’t a concern after Week 1, when we saw Prescott throw 58 times and put up 403 passing yards and four touchdowns in a shootout with the Buccaneers. But in the two games since, the Dallas defense has played well in wins over the Chargers and Eagles. With a neutral game script against the Chargers and a positive script against the Eagles, Prescott attempted 27 and 26 passes in those two games, finishing with 237 and 238 passing yards. You’re starting Prescott, obviously – he’s a midrange QB1 at worst – but I’m shying away from him in DFS in a Week 4 matchup that might not have a great deal of shootout potential.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard and Royce Freeman: Christian McCaffrey‘s hamstring injury leaves the Carolina backfield to Hubbard and Freeman for at least a week or two. After McCaffrey left, Hubbard out-snapped Freeman 40-11 and finished with 11-52-0 rushing and 3-27-0 receiving on five targets, and 18 routes run. That’s encouraging usage. We can’t count on Hubbard dominating backfield work to that degree again, but it’s reasonable to think he’ll continue to be the Panthers’ lead back while CMC recovers. The Canadian-born Hubbard ran for 2,094 yards and 21 TDs as a sophomore at Oklahoma State, but his NFL Draft stock slipped after an injury-marred junior year. I have him ranked RB20 this week. If you picked him up off waivers, you’re probably using him. He’ll likely be a popular DraftKings play at $5,900. I’m inclined to pivot elsewhere due to role uncertainty. Freeman is competent in a number of facets but not especially good in any of them. It wouldn’t surprise me if he played a bigger role than expected, but I’m still not eager to invest in him.

Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: I don’t know if anyone really expected Pollard to take over this backfield, but any fears Elliott investors might have had were quelled by Zeke’s Week 3 performance against the Eagles. He played 70% of the offensive snaps against Philly and had 17-95-2 rushing and 3-21-0 receiving. Pollard continued to look good in a backup role, carrying 11 times for 60 yards. He’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and remains the most essential RB handcuff in fantasy. Zeke and Pollard will face a Carolina run defense that ranks first in DVOA and is giving up 45.0 rushing yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry, although two of the Panthers’ first three opponents – the Jets and Texans – have feeble running games. This isn’t the Week to use Pollard, but treat Elliott as a mid-range RB1.

Wide Receivers

D.J. Moore: Moore got to 100 receiving yards just 2 minutes into the second quarter of the Panthers’ Week 3 win over the Texans. He finished with eight catches for 126 yards, and he could have had a monster stat line if Sam Darnold hadn’t been just a smidge off-target with a deep throw to Moore late in the game that could have resulted in a long touchdown. Moore accounted for 36% of Darnold’s targets against the Texans and over half of his air yards. In Week 4, Moore figures to get a lot of face time against Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs, one of the better young cover men in the game. As well as Moore has been playing, a tricky matchup is no reason to go away from him. He’s a low-end WR1 this week.

Robby Anderson: Milk cartons in Charlotte-area grocery stores have pictures of Anderson on them these days. He saw just two targets last week, and after a 95-catch season in 2020, Anderson has five receptions through three games. Is there any hope for a rebound? Well, it’s possible that Carolina’s trade of Dan Arnold earlier this week frees up a small handful of targets for Anderson. But if that’s what Anderson investors are pinning their hopes on … yipes. Anderson’s snap share has declined every week, and he only had two more snaps than rookie WR Terrace Marshall in Week 3. Anderson is merely a low-end WR4 for me this week.

Terrace Marshall: While Robby Anderson‘s snap share is trending downward, Marshall’s 62% snap share in Week 3 was a season high. The rookie has caught at least three passes in every game, and though he’s averaging 9.1 yards per catch and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, he’s well worth a roster spot.

CeeDee Lamb: Week 3 was disheartening for Lamb stakeholders. He leapt high in the air to haul in a 44-yard pass on the Cowboys’ first drive, but he came down just short of the goal line, and Ezekiel Elliott scored on a 1-yard run the next play. Lamb saw only two more targets the rest of the way in the Cowboys’ blowout of the Eagles and finished with 66 yards. He’ll face a Carolina pass defense that has been terrific statistically but hasn’t faced a competent passing game yet. Lamb is my WR5 this week, and I’ll spend the $6,700 on him in at least one DraftKings cash game.

Amari Cooper: He toughed it out with a cracked rib in Week 3 and wasn’t much of a factor in the Cowboys’ easy win over the Eagles, finishing with a 3-26-0 receiving line. Cooper has been held to 50 receiving yards in his last two games. I think that can be chalked up more to game script than anything else. This week’s game against Carolina doesn’t profile as a shootout either, and Cooper is still banged up, so consider him a midrange WR2 at best.

Cedrick Wilson: Wilson had the lone TD catch among Dallas receivers in Week 3, but he split the third-receiver role with Noah Brown, who’s best known for his blocking. Wilson is merely a placeholder for Michael Gallup and can’t be used for fantasy.

Tight Ends

Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble: I’ve heard it suggested that the trade of Dan Arnold to Jacksonville this week could make Tremble a fantasy-viable tight end. But if Robby Anderson is barely viable this year, do we really think Carolina’s rookie tight end is going to be worthwhile? Tremble did score a touchdown on a gadgety 7-yard run against Houston last week, but Ian Thomas led the team in TE snaps. There’s no reason to invest in a Carolina TE.

Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin: Schultz erupted for 6-80-2 against the Eagles in Week 3. He’s out-snapped Jarwin in every game and has out-targeted Jarwin 15-9 this season, so I think we have to regard him as the more valuable Dallas TE. I still only have Schultz ranked as a lower-end TE2 this week. Jarwin is probably droppable in most leagues.

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: 49ers -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52 points
Implied Vegas point totals: 49ers 27.5, Seahawks 24.5

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: He’s only the QB11 in fantasy scoring, but Wilson is the efficiency king through three weeks, leading the NFL in yards per pass attempt (10.4) and passer rating (133.6). Are Seahawks head coach and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron letting Russ cook? Well, yes. The thing is, Russ has been so ridiculously efficient that the Seahawks haven’t had to run many plays or throw many passes. Wilson ranks 26th in pass attempts with 86. By contrast, league leader Tom Brady has thrown 141 passes. Wilson faces a 49ers pass defense that’s been statistically average so far. He’s played 18 career games against the 49ers and has a 14-4 record against them. Wilson’s 32 TD passes against the Niners are the most he’s thrown against any team.

Jimmy Garoppolo: This week could go in any number of directions for Garoppolo. He could smash against a shaky Seattle defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass. He could game-manage the 49ers to a win, as he did against the Lions and Eagles in the first two weeks of the season. He could play poorly and lose snaps, or perhaps even his job, to rookie Trey Lance. That last scenario has me nervous about Garoppolo. The 49ers have designs on a deep playoff run, and soon they’re going to have to decide whether they want to try to make it with Jimmy G or let Lance get his feet wet so that he’ll be playoff-ready come January. Consider Garoppolo a back-end QB2, playable only as a second QB in superflex.

Running Backs

Chris Carson: Technically, Carson’s performance thus far falls into RB1 range, but it feels less fulfilling than that. He currently sits RB11 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR), but that showing is largely driven by his three touchdowns. Carson hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing day yet, and he’s been targeted only five times this season, catching all five for 28 yards. With the lack of involvement in the passing game, this is a somewhat fragile profile. In Carson’s defense, the efficiency of the Seahawks’ offense so far – in other words, they score quickly – has kept their play volume down, which is why Carson hasn’t received more than 16 carries in a game. Consider Carson a high-end RB2 this week in a road game vs. the 49ers.

Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon: Mitchell, who missed Week 3 with a shoulder injury, has been doing individual drills in practice this week but hasn’t been cleared for contact. If he’s able to play, we have to assume Mitchell is still going to be No. 1 in the pecking order, since Sermon wasn’t particularly impressive last week in posting a 10-31-1 rushing line against a below-average Green Bay run defense. Sermon played fewer snaps last week than fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who had nine touches against the Packers. I’m ranking Mitchell RB31 and Sermon RB41 and advise caution with both. If Mitchell ends up not playing, Sermon will rise to low-end RB2 level.

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: 49ers CB Josh Norman might have been a match for Metcalf six years ago. At age 33, Norman may not be able to hang with such a one-of-a-kind physical specimen, especially not after being briefly hospitalized with a bruised lung following the 49ers’ Week 3 loss to the Packers. After watching Tyler Lockett have most of the fun in Weeks 1-2, Metcalf threw his weight around in Week 3, catching six balls for 107 yards and a touchdown. He’s a midrange WR1 this week and a viable DraftKings play at $7,200.

Tyler Lockett: Lockett’s first two weeks were so good that he’s still the WR3 in fantasy scoring after putting up a ho-hum 4-31-0 stat line in Week 4. He has a good chance to get back in the groove with a Week 4 matchup against 49ers CB Emmanuel Moseley, who just played his first game of the season after missing the first two with a knee injury.

Deebo Samuel: I don’t think either of Seattle’s top two cornerbacks, D.J. Reed or Tre Flowers, can hang with Samuel. The third-year receiver has been a rock for the Niners, with 20-334-1 on 30 targets. Brandon Aiyuk had his first productive game of the season in Week 3, and Aiyuk’s return to relevance might take at least a small bite out of Deebo’s numbers, making him more of a WR2 than a WR1 going forward. That’s where I have Samuel this week, at WR17, even though the matchup against Seattle looks juicy.

Brandon Aiyuk: He’s back, baby. The breakout star of 2020 was MIA in Weeks 1-2, but Aiyuk played an 86% snap share against the Packers in Week 3 and caught 4 of 6 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Half of his targets were end-zone looks, and he also had an 8-yard run. Aiyuk has a decent chance to keep the momentum rolling against a weak group of Seattle cornerbacks. At his $5,000 price on DratKings, Aiyuk makes some sense as a discount play.

Tight Ends

Will Dissly: Gerald Everett is on the COVID-19 list and not expected to play, leaving Dissly as Seattle’s primary tight end. Dissly has been fantasy-relevant at times during his career but has been through the meat grinder, having torn his Achilles and ruptured his patellar tendon. Either of those two injuries could have been a career-ender, but Dissly has played over half the Seahawks’ offensive snaps this season and has 4-76-0 receiving. If Everett is out, Dissly will rate as a high-end TE3.

George Kittle: He’s still looking for his first touchdown of 2021, but Kittle had his best game of the young season Sunday night against the Packers, catching 7 of 9 targets for 92 yards and adding a 9-yard run. I’ll consider Kittle at a reasonable cost of $5,900 on DraftKings, but I’m less inclined to pull the trigger now that WR Brandon Aiyuk is making meaningful contributions to the San Francisco passing game again.

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Rams -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Rams 29.5, Cardinals 25

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray: A big divisional game against the Rams will be a terrific test for Murray, who seems ready to make the leap to “guy who could win a Super Bowl” level. The Rams’ pass defense has been good through three games, though not quite as airtight as it was in 2020. Murray made two starts against the Rams last year. One was a meaningless Week 17 game in which he eventually gave way to backup Chris Streveler. The other was a key Week 13 game in which Murray completed 21 of 39 passes for 173 yards, throwing three TD passes and one interception, with 15 rushing yards. The Rams won that game 38-28, and Jared Goff put up better numbers. Murray still ranks QB1 in fantasy scoring, but I have him ranked QB3 this week and won’t be using him in any DraftKings contests at his $7,800 cost.

Matthew Stafford: The ex-Lion has been on fire for the Rams in 2021. Stafford lit up the Buccaneers for 343 yards and four touchdowns in Week 3, and he’s now tied with Josh Allen for QB7 in fantasy scoring. Stafford faces a Cardinals defense that throttled Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee passing game in Week 1, played poorly against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings in Week 2, then bounced back against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars in an easy Week 3 matchup. Stafford is my QB10 this week. I don’t think he’s a bad DraftKings cash-game play at $7,000.

Running Backs

Chase Edmonds and James Conner: Edmonds is still the preferred guy to have in this backfield. He’s out-snapping Conner by nearly a 2-to-1 margin and has 16 catches while Conner has only one. In Week 3, Conner had TD runs of 4 yards and 1 yard in the second half of the win over Jacksonville, so he’s getting most of the snaps near the goal line. But midway through the first quarter, Edmonds took a handoff at the Jacksonville 2 and was stopped just shy of the end zone, and Murray scored the next play on a 1-yard bootleg. If Edmonds starts getting at least a share of the goal line work on top of all the work in the passing game, he could produce consistent RB2 value. The Rams pose a somewhat difficult matchup for the two Arizona backs this week. David Montgomery ran for 108 yards and a touchdown against the Rams in Week 1, but they’ve been fairly stingy to opposing RBs ever since.

Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel: Henderson missed Week 3 with a rib injury, and Michel performed admirably in relief, rushing for 20-67-0 against a tough Buccaneers run defense. Henderson is expected back this week, and he had been playing the vast majority of the Rams’ offensive snaps before his injury. I would expect the Rams to give Michel about 40% of the work this week, especially with Henderson still banged up. Henderson lands in high-end RB3 range, with Michel in low-end RB3 range.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: A rib injury kept Hopkins out of practice for most of last week. He played against Jacksonville anyway but had his quietest game of the season so far, catching three passes for 21 yards. Hopkins missed Wednesday’s practice with the same injury. Assuming he plays, he’ll be primarily matched up against Rams CB Darious Williams, which certainly beats being primarily matched up against Rams CB Jalen Ramsey.

Christian Kirk: Checking in as the WR13 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, Kirk is enjoying a fine season so far, posting 15-239-2. But he draws the short matchup straw for the Cardinals this week and is ticketed to run the majority of his routes against lockdown Rams CB Jalen Ramsey. I have Kirk ranked WR49, and it’s probably a good week to leave him on your bench.

Rondale Moore: Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury schemed up touches for Moore in the first two games of the season but largely forgot about him in Week 3. The rookie had just four yards from scrimmage against the Jaguars on two catches and one carry. Moore played only 23 snaps last week, but he hasn’t played more than 28 snaps in a game this season and has still managed to be impactful. In a tricky matchup with the Rams, he ranks WR44, just on the “sit” side of the start/sit border.

A.J. Green: After scoring a touchdown in Week 2, Green had five receptions for 112 yards in Week 3, and he now ranks WR39 in fantasy scoring. I’m not inclined to believe in the notion of a Green revival. He was just way too inefficient with the Bengals in 2020, and he hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game in 2021. He’s my WR63 this week.

Cooper Kupp: In half-point PPR formats, Kupp is averaging 26.2 points per game. Not only is he the WR1, he’s leading his next-closest pursuer, Mike Williams, by 4 points per game. Kupp has had double-digit targets in every game, he’s had at least seven catches and 96 yards in every game, and he’s found the end zone at least once in every game. Kupp had a smash matchup against Buccaneers slot corner Ross Cockrell last week and took full advantage, posting a 9-96-2 line. Kupp’s matchup against Cardinals slot corner Byron Murphy won’t be as easy, but the red-hot Kupp still has to be ranked as a high-end WR1. I also think he’s a good DraftKings play even though his price tag is all the way up to $7,800.

Robert Woods: It’s amazing how drastically the productivity of Kupp and Woods has diverged. Kupp is putting up circus numbers. Woods is putting up the same sort of numbers he produced during his early NFL seasons in Buffalo. I do think Woods will pick up the pace, but I don’t think we’ll ever again view Kupp and Woods as fantasy co-equals. Woods has a tricky matchup against Cardinals CB Robert Alford on Sunday, so I have him at WR26 in this week’s rankings.

Van Jefferson: The second-year man has played 50 or more snaps in each of the last two weeks, yet he’s still seen only 12 targets on the year and has 7-136-1 for the season. We’ve seen the Rams’ third receiver be a figurative third wheel before, with Josh Reynolds being the odd man out for the last couple of years. Jefferson’s playing time might eventually translate into fantasy-relevant numbers, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Tight Ends

Maxx Williams: After a 94-yard outburst in Week 2, Williams had three catches for 19 yards in Week 3. Still, he continues to play better than 70% of Arizona’s offensive snaps every week and at least deserves to be on the radar for streaming TE consideration.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee scored his first touchdown of the season last week and now sits at TE12 in fantasy scoring, but he’s facing an Arizona defense that’s been stingy to opposing tight ends. The Cardinals allowed 6.2 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs last year and are yielding just 1.6 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs through three weeks this year. I have Higbee at TE10 this week but won’t touch him in DFS.