Cleveland Browns vs Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Browns -2
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 53 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Browns 27.5, Vikings 25.5
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: The Browns, Saints and Ravens are the only teams with more runs than passes this season. Mayfield is playing his role well, ranking fourth in the league yards per pass attempt (9.8) and 12th in passer rating (102.1), but he’s thrown only two TD passes in three games and is QB22 in fantasy scoring. The Vikings’ offense has been good, but good enough to lure the Browns into the kind of shootout that would put Mayfield on the fantasy map for Week 4? Probably not, considering how good the Browns’ defense has been. Mayfield is a consideration in superflex leagues but not in single-QB leagues or DFS contests.
Kirk Cousins: Cousins has played some of the best football of his career over the first three games of 2021, and the Cleveland defense probably isn’t capable of making him look as bad as it made Justin Fields look last week. Cousins currently ranks QB6, averaging 24.1 fantasy points per game. The Browns are holding opponents to 181.7 passing yards per game, in part because they’ve been playing keep-away, holding the ball for an average of 33:57 per game. As well as Cousins is playing, he’s just outside QB1 range this week, and I’m fading him in DFS.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Normally a supporting actor, Hunt played a leading role against the Bears in Week 3, with 10-81-1 rushing and 6-74-0 receiving. He ran with such ferocity that you would have thought someone dented his car just before kickoff. Chubb showed up, too, rushing for 22-84-0, though he wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Can both of these guys make their fantasy quotas in Week 4? There’s a decent chance. The Vikings’ run defense ranks 27th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Chubb checks in as my RB4 this week. Hunt is my RB19. With Chubb priced at $7,000 on DraftKings and Hunt at $6,000, I’m not wild about either for DFS, since we can never be sure whose week it is to shine.
Alexander Mattison: There was a waiver-wire clamor for Mattison when it was learned that Dalvin Cook was going to miss Week 6 of the 2020 season. Mattison went out and laid a giant egg, with 10-26-0 rushing and 1-4-0 receiving. Cook also missed the last game of the 2020 regular season. Mattison answered the call with 145 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, but few fantasy managers derived any benefit because most fantasy seasons had already ended. Last week, with Cook sidelined by a high-ankle sprain, Mattison came through with 26-112-0 rushing and 6-59-0 receiving in a win over the Seahawks. He once again figures to handle the load in Week 4 while Cook recovers. Mattison will face a Cleveland defense that’s much better against the run than Seattle. The Browns have given up 67.0 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. Still, with a major workload expected, Mattison profiles as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. He’s not exactly bargain-priced at $6,600 on DraftKings, and I’m not apt to grab him when the matchup isn’t particularly appealing.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham: OBJ passed the eye test in his first action since tearing his ACL last season, catching 5 of 9 targets for 77 yards and adding a 10-yard run. Beckham had 149 air yards in his return and figures to dominate downfield targets for the Browns as long as he’s healthy. The Browns’ offensive conservatism is a concern, but the lack of target competition from other Cleveland receivers elevates Beckham’s weekly floor. Consider him an upper-end WR3 this week. I’m not quite ready to take the plunge on him at $5,800 in DraftKings.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz and Rashard Higgins: It’s worth mentioning these guys, but it’s not worth investing in these guys. In the Browns’ first of several games without Jarvis Landry, these three combined for a mere five targets. Peoples-Jones played 65% of the offensive snaps in Week 3, Higgins 49%, Schwartz 35%. With the Browns’ run-heaviness and the return of Odell Beckham, Cleveland’s peripheral receivers are untouchable.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson’s season is picking up steam. He had a season-high nine catches for 118 yards last Sunday against Seattle and scored his second touchdown of the season. Whether he spends more time matched up with Denzel Ward or Greg Newsome, I don’t know if either of the Browns’ young cornerbacks can handle him. I have Jefferson ranked WR6 for this week and for the rest of the season.
Adam Thielen: OK, regression, we’re waiting. (Looks at watch, taps foot impatiently) Thielen has scored 18 touchdowns in his last 18 games, and this sort of thing can’t keep happening … except it does. Perhaps we should recalibrate our expectations and resolve that Thielen is going to outkick TD expectations. One TD a game might be too much to expect, but I’ve been under-ranking Thielen for a while now and should probably reassess. And yet, I have him ranked WR20 this week, six spots below the expert consensus ranking. Stupid late-arriving regression.
K.J. Osborn: After posting 12-167-1 in his first two games, Osborn had a 2-26-0 line in Week 3, taking a back seat to TE Tyler Conklin as the third option in the Minnesota passing attack. Osborn probably isn’t a consideration for a lineup spot just yet, but it’s worth monitoring his usage in advance of the bye weeks.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant: Strangely, Njoku played his highest snap share of the season in Week 3 and even out-snapped Hooper, but he didn’t see a single target. All three of these guys are going to get snaps every week and share targets, but Hooper is probably the only one worth of a roster spot in a standard-sized league. Even so, he’s a lower-end TE2.
Tyler Conklin: A 7-70-1 stat line in Week 3 was an eye-opener, but Conklin’s usage has been encouraging all along. He’s played at least 70% of the offensive snaps in every game, and he hasn’t seen fewer than four targets. With the Vikings having so little WR depth, Conklin has a chance to become a fixture in the Minnesota passing game. I have him as a high-end TE2 this week.
Washington Football Team vs Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Washington -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Washington 24.75, Falcons 23.25
Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke: Some garbage-time production in the fourth quarter spruced up Heinicke’s Week 3 surface stats, but he had a tough day against a nasty Buffalo defense. He gets a much easier matchup against Atlanta this week. The Falcons gave up three TD passes to Jalen Hurts in Week 1 and five TD passes to Tom Brady in Week 2 before keeping Daniel Jones TD-free in Week 3. I have Heinicke as a back-end QB2 this week, but you could make a case for him being a midrange QB2 due to matchup.
Matt Ryan: He ranks QB25 in fantasy scoring, and the only way you’re using Ryan at this point is in superflex leagues or in extremely favorable matchups. His matchup this week probably can’t be considered favorable even though Washington’s pass defense has been unexpectedly hospitable this year. The Washington pass defense ranks 29th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. It’s allowing 307 passing yards per game and a 69.9% completion percentage. But the Washington pass rush is too dangerous for you to get cute by playing Ryan in a single-QB league this week. He’s barely inside QB2 range.
Running Backs
Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: Gibson had a scintillating 73-yard TD catch last week and dropped what should have been another touchdown. Unfortunately, those were his only two targets in a lopsided loss to the Bills, and it seems odd that Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner wouldn’t endeavor to get Gibson the ball in space after the Bills had sealed off rushing lanes. After being targeted five times in the opener, Gibson has seen just four targets in his last two games. The game script should be more favorable for Gibson this week against Atlanta than it was last week against Buffalo, but man, greater usage in the passing game would really be nice. Until we see it more consistently, Gibson is a high-end RB2 rather than an RB1. McKissic is completely dependent on game script. He had five catches for 83 yards in Week 2, when Washington had a couple of McKissic-heavy hurry-up drives, but he’s had two combined targets in Washington’s other two games. He’s not usable.
Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson: The Falcons’ usage of Patterson has been a thorn in the side of Davis investors, and there’s a case to be made that Patterson is the Atlanta back you’d rather have going forward. Davis still has a big edge in snap share. He’s played 67% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps vs. 36% for Patterson. But Patterson has gotten a carry or a target on 50% of his snaps and is doing more with his touches than Davis is with his. Patterson has run the ball exactly seven times in each of his three games, and he’s had seven targets in each of his last two. It’s not that the Falcons aren’t using Davis in the passing game. He has 14 catches on 17 targets, but Davis is averaging a meager 4.9 yards per catch. He hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards or 25 receiving yards in any game this season, and he still hasn’t scored a touchdown. I have Davis as a midrange RB3 this week, Patterson as a low-end RB3/low-end WR4.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: A tough matchup against the Bills and ace CB Tre’Davious White led to a relatively subdued Week 3 for McLaurin, but this week’s matchup against the Falcons and WR Fabian Moreau is promising. I have McLaurin ranked as an upper-end WR2 this week. There’s certainly potential for a WR1 finish in a favorable matchup but McLaurin is averaging 69.3 air yards per game, which is too few for a receiver of his caliber.
Dyami Brown: I was excited about Brown’s high snap rates in his first two games, but he didn’t really cash in. Brown lost some snaps to Cam Sims last week, and the injured Curtis Samuel is getting closer to returning. It looks as if Brown’s ETA has been pushed back to 2022.
Calvin Ridley: After averaging 15.3 yards per catch last year, this dynamic playmaker is down to 8.8 yards per catch in 2021. His average depth of target has dropped from 14.3 yards last year to 8.8 yards this year. We can’t complain about Ridley’s 20 receptions and 39 targets, but the big plays just haven’t been there. Ridley has slipped from his lofty perch into low-end WR1 range.
Olamide Zaccheaus: It seems likely that Russell Gage will miss a second straight game with an ankle injury. That would put Zaccheaus in line for another healthy workload after he played 69% of the offensive snaps last week and saw six targets for three catches, 32 yards, and a touchdown. He’s not startable in most leagues, but Zaccheaus has some GPP appeal at his $4,100 price on DraftKings.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: The steady Thomas takes on an Atlanta defense that’s given up three touchdowns to tight ends – one to Dallas Goedert in Week 1, two to Rob Gronkowski in Week 2. Thomas is a midrange TE1 and a nice DraftKings value at $4,900.
Kyle Pitts: He’s playing a lot of snaps and has already run 73 routes this season, but all that route running has led to only 17 targets. Pitts is the TE18 in half-point PPR in fantasy scoring, and it sure seems like there’s been a lot of meat left on that bone. I have Pitts ranked TE8 this week and still feel like there’s a breakout game just around the corner.
Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -16.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bills 32.25, Texans 15.75
Quarterbacks
Davis Mills: Credit Mills for turning in a respectable performance last week against a very good Carolina defense. He’s up against an excellent Buffalo defense on Sunday. We’ve seen more highly pedigreed rookie quarterbacks struggle against lesser defenses this season. You can’t use Mills this week.
Josh Allen: He was only QB18 in fantasy scoring after two weeks, but after throwing for 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns and running for another last Sunday against Washington, Allen is now tied for QB7 with Matthew Stafford. Allen shouldn’t have much trouble dissecting the Texans’ defense this week. The only fear for Allen investors is that with Buffalo a 16- or 17-point favorite, the Bills might be able to gear down early, lowering Allen’s ceiling. Regardless, he’s my QB1 this week.
Running Backs
Mark Ingram, David Johnson, and Phillip Lindsay: Johnson has led this backfield in snap share for two straight weeks, and his pass-catching skills out of the backfield should come in handy for a team likely to be faced with an endless supply of negative game scripts. But Johnson has only 11 carries so far this season, while Ingram has 36. You’re not using any of these guys unless you’re in a 16-teamer or a 12-teamer with a crazy number of flex spots. And even then, you’re not using any of these guys this week against the Bills.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary: Moss looked terrific against Washington in Week 3 and may have regained a slim lead over Singletary in this ever-shifting backfield. Moss seemed to have grabbed the 1a role in this backfield late last season, but he was a Week 1 scratch, and Singletary out-snapped him by more than a 2-to-1 margin in Week 2. Moss banged in a couple of late touchdowns in Week 2, and when he was given a greater opportunity in Week 3, he seized the moment, rushing 13 times for 60 yards and catching 3 of 3 targets for 31 yards and a touchdown. There may be ample opportunity for both of these RBs to eat in a game where the Bills are so heavily favored against the Texans. Consider Moss a low-end RB2 and Singletary a low-end RB3 this week. I’m not too interested in either guy in DFS because of role ambiguity and because Josh Allen tends to poach short-yardage TD runs.
Wide Receivers
Brandin Cooks: The Houston passing game is Brandon Cooks at this point. He has a massive 37.6% target share so far and has racked up a league-high 428 yards. Cooks is fifth in the league in targets (32), tied for third in receptions (23), and third in receiving yardage (322). Those are pretty amazing numbers considering the caliber of quarterbacks he’s been working with. The Bills are bound to put human eraser Tre’Davious White on Cooks for a decent number of snaps this weekend, even if it won’t be an outright shadow job. That, coupled with QB concerns, puts Cooks in high-end WR3 range for me this week even though he’s been remarkable so far.
Anthony Miller: He had four catches for 20 yards and a touchdown in his Texans debut but simply isn’t playable yet for fantasy purposes.
Stefon Diggs: There’s a correction coming. Diggs has 31 targets and 19 catches so far, and he’s piled up 409 yards, yet he’s only the WR32 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Diggs hasn’t reached 70 receiving yards in any of his three games, and he’s scored one touchdown. The usage numbers are fine and Diggs is healthy. It’s just a matter of time before he erupts.
Cole Beasley: His target counts so far: 13, 4, 13. Beasley is on a 130-catch, 1,099-yard pace, and it doesn’t seem far-fetched that he can keep it up. He’s hit double digits in targets in six of his last nine regular-season games. The drawbacks are that Beasley doesn’t score many touchdowns or break many big plays, but he’s PPR gold. He’ll be matched up against Desmond King, the Texans’ best cornerback, but Beasley is still worth considering as a WR3 or flex play.
Emmanuel Sanders: It’s so weird that the 34-year-old Sanders has become Josh Allen‘s designated field stretcher. In 11 previous seasons, Sanders had averaged 13.0 yards per catch. So far in 2021, he’s averaging 17.6 yards per catch. His average depth of target has jumped from 8.8 yards with the Saints last year to 16.9 yards this year with Buffalo. Sanders had 94 receiving yards and two touchdowns against Washington last week, and he could end up having another big week if he spends most of the day running routes against the beatable Vernon Hargreaves. Sanders is a lower-end WR3 this week with major DraftKings appeal at a cost of $4,900.
Tight Ends
Jordan Akins and Pharaoh Brown: Akins had a season-high five targets last week that he turned into four catches for 32 yards, but this is still a TE situation we can ignore.
Dawson Knox: He’s scored touchdowns in two straight games, and Knox’s TD grab in Week 3 was a beauty, fully outstretched on an end-zone fade route. He’s still squarely in TE2 range, but Knox’s athleticism and his pairing with Josh Allen give us hope for bigger things ahead. Knox goes up against a Houston defense that’s given up 230 receiving yards and a touchdown to opposing tight ends. (And having played the Jaguars, Browns, and Panthers, the Texans haven’t exactly faced a who’s who of TEs.)
New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -8
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Saints 25.75, Giants 17.75
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones: The allure of a spiked week of rushing numbers is always there with Jones. He had a TD run in each of his first two games and had 95 rushing yards in Week 2, which is why he’s the QB10 in fantasy scoring despite only two TD passes. But hamstring injuries to WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton reduce the allure, as does a matchup against an outstanding Saints defense that ranks third in the league in opponent passer rating and is allowing 6.3 yards per attempt. Despite the ever-present rushing upside, Jones is a back-end QB2 this week.
Jameis Winston: The Saints have been the NFL’s run-heaviest team so far in 2021, passing on only 43% of their offensive plays. Winston has attempted 20, 22 and 21 passes in his first three games with the Saints, and he hasn’t thrown for more than 148 yards in any of the three. Saints head coach Sean Payton clearly isn’t looking to unleash the Winston who led the NFL with 626 passing attempts in his final year with the Buccaneers in 2019. The Giants’ pass defense is average at best, but why would you use Winston when his head coach doesn’t really want to?
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley: On one hand, Saquon’s usage the last two weeks is exciting. He’s played about 85% of the Giants’ offensive snaps and has gotten 39 combined carries and targets since Week 2. On the other hand, a matchup with the Saints this week is disheartening. New Orleans has smothered opposing running games, allowing 60.3 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. I’m above consensus on Barkley this week, ranking him as a low-end RB1. My thinking is that the Giants may have to lean on Saquon as hard as they have all season because of the injuries to Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton.
Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones: In his first four years in the league, Kamara had 20 or more carries in a game only once: He had 22 carries in his final game of 2020. Kamara has already had two such games in 2021. He had 20 carries in the season opener against the Packers, 24 against the Patriots in Week 3. At this rate, Kamara is going to shatter his previous single-season high in carries: 194 in 2018. The bad news is that Kamara has only 10 catches and has been targeted 14 times. He’s never had fewer than 81 catches or 97 targets in an NFL season, and at his current pace, he’s going to fall way short of those numbers. With the changing of the guard at quarterback, it seems unlikely that the Kamara usage of old will return. The new-model Kamara is still quite valuable, but less valuable than the old model. He’s still my RB2 this week. Jones hasn’t demonstrated that he has stand-alone value even in a run-heavy offense, but he’s a premium handcuff.
Wide Receivers
Kenny Golladay: The anticipated absence of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, who both sustained hamstring injuries in Week 3, could lead to a Week 4 target spike for Golladay. Then again, it may not, since Golladay could very well be shadowed by Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, who’s playing at an elite level. I tend to think usage trumps matchup when it comes to fantasy rankings, but maybe not this time. Golladay is a back-end WR3 this week and has very little appeal in DFS.
Kadarius Toney and Collin Johnson: If Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both out this week due to hamstring injuries, Toney will replace Shepard as the primary slot guy, and Johnson will fill in for Slayton on the outside. Toney missed valuable reps in training camp after testing positive for COVID-19, and so far he has four catches for 14 yards. The Giants have nonetheless talked about getting their rookie receiver the ball, since he can be electric in the open field. Johnson is a king-sized (6-6, 220) second-year man who was unexpectedly released by the Jaguars before the start of the season. He had five catches for 51 yards last week in his Giants debut. Toney’s home-run speed makes him an interesting and inexpensive GPP flyer at only $3,300, but both of these guys are long shots to click.
Marquez Callaway: He’s the only New Orleans receiver worth considering for fantasy, at least until Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Thomas return from injury. After two no-shows to open the season, Callaway caught 4 of 5 targets for 41 yards against the Patriots last Sunday. A five-target game doesn’t exactly fill his fantasy managers with adrenaline. Even with the Saints short on credible options at wide receiver, Callaway’s target potential is muted in an offense that now wants to run the ball as much as possible. That puts Callaway in WR5 range and makes him unexciting in DraftKings contests even with a cheap $4,300 price tag.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: After missing the first two games of the season with a hamstring injury, Engram made a quiet 2021, debut, catching 2 of 6 targets for 21 yards in a loss to the Falcons. With WRs Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton likely to miss Week 4 because of hamstring injuries, Engram has an elevated target outlook, but he’ll be facing a Saints defense that’s allowing only 4.3 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) to opposing tight ends.
Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson: There was genuine excitement about each of these guys at various points during the summer, but they’ve combined for five targets over the last two weeks. The Saints simply aren’t throwing enough for either one to be worthwhile.
This season, the Primer is presented by Pristine Auction. They are going to be providing giveaways throughout the season. See below for how to win a signed Deebo Samuel jersey!