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The Primer isn’t supposed to be about the big stuff, the existential stuff. It’s supposed to be about helping you decide whether to start Emmanuel Sanders in the flex spot. It’s an oversized tip sheet with nuggets of information about every fantasy-relevant player. Perhaps you find it useful and entertaining, but the Primer is meant to be cotton candy – on the tongue for a moment and then gone.
The Primer isn’t supposed to be the place where we say goodbye to its creator, Mike Tagliere. Tags passed away late last week after a battle with COVID-19, just a few days after his 39th birthday.
Tags loved the Primer, by the way. Man, did he ever love it. He cared for it the way we care for our children. It stressed him out and put him through hell, but he poured himself into its growth and was proud of what he had sired. He cared for it so much because he thought it might help and entertain you. That was his calling.
He almost didn’t follow that calling. Full-time work is scarce in the fantasy industry, and he had a steady and well-paying job. Tags wrestled with the dilemma of whether to pursue his passion or stay in a secure but unfulfilling job that provided financial security for his family. I’m not sure which path he would have chosen if the decision had been his alone. It was his wife, Tabbie, who demanded that Tags chase his dream job. She wouldn’t have it any other way: Tabbie couldn’t bear the idea of Tags being unhappy about any aspect of his life.
My heart aches for Tabbie. She and Tags were soul mates. If you spent 5 minutes with the two of them, you could see that they were meant for each other. They were perfect together.
My heart aches for Tags’ daughter Alyssa and his son Jonathan, too. They lost a dad who loved them so much, he would have walked through fire for them.
And my heart aches for us – his friends and fans.
So many of his followers have dropped me notes of condolences this week that included something to the effect of, “I never met Tags, but I felt like I knew him.” That’s how it was with Tags. He was earnest and relatable. He seemed like a friend even if you’d never met him. And if you did meet him in person, it instantly felt like you’d known him for years. He was quite possibly the most genuine person I’ve ever met: open, honest and almost completely incapable of hiding his emotions.
It wasn’t just that Tags was nice and friendly. Our mutual friend Jody Smith of FullTime Fantasy stated it perfectly: Tags just had a way of elevating people. If you spent time with him, he made you feel good about yourself. It was one of his gifts. Tags was all about positivity, but not in a weird, motivational-speaker sort of way. His positivity and friendliness were infectious.
Being around Tags made me want to be a better person. Spending time with him inspired me to be more affectionate toward my wife and kids, to do more to uplift my friends, to be friendlier to strangers, to work harder, to care more.
My buddy Scott Pianowski of Yahoo lost his father just a couple of days before Tags passed. Scott’s dad had a favorite saying: “It’s never too late to be what you might have been.”
Tags will always be a reminder to me that it’s never too late.
So long, buddy. I’ll miss you.
If you would like to support Mike Tagliere’s family, we have created a GoFundMe where you can give and show your support. You can find that here.
MATCHUP LINKS:
TEN at NYJ | DET at CHI | IND at MIA | CLE at MIN | WAS at ATL | HOU at BUF | NYG at NO | KC at PHI | CAR at DAL | SEA at SF | ARI at LAR | PIT at GB | BAL at DEN | TB at NE | LV at LAC |
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Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 46 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Titans 26.75, Jets 19.25
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: With the status of WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones very much in doubt due to hamstring injuries, Tannehill is only a midrange QB2 even against a mediocre Jets pass defense. It’s impossible to feel good about using him when his top three receivers would be Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers and Josh Reynolds. If either Brown or Jones is able to play, Tannehill might warrant consideration as a high-end QB2.
Zach Wilson: Pity poor Wilson. He’s being pressured on more than one-third of his dropbacks and has already been sacked 15 times, putting him on pace for an 85-sack season. The record for most times sacked in a single season is held by David Carr, who ate 76 sacks as a rookie in 2002 and was widely considered to be ruined by the experience. Wilson has thrown seven interceptions and hasn’t thrown a TD pass since Week 1. Never mind fantasy, let’s just hope the kid survives his rookie year.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: Just imagine what the workload for Henry might be like this weekend if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both out. He’s handled 63 carries over the last two weeks, and you have to figure that he’s going to get at least 25 carries this week. A true beast of burden, Henry is on pace to lead the NFL in carries and rushing yardage for a third consecutive season, and he’s even added pass catching to his arsenal, with 12 receptions so far. Henry will be facing a Jets defense that has allowed five TD runs this season. The Jets’ offense has struggled to sustain drives, which means it probably won’t be able to keep the ball out of Henry’s hands. He’s the unquestioned RB1 in the rankings this week, and he might be a DraftKings bargain even at a cost of $8,800
Michael Carter and Ty Johnson: Carter out-touched Johnson 11-4 last week, but Johnson had the slightly higher snap share. They’re both outside the top 50 in RB fantasy scoring. Even though the Titans’ run defense ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, you can’t use either of these guys yet.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones: You’ll have to check the status of Jones as the week goes on. He left last Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter with what’s being described as hamstring tightness. He may still have a chance to play with a week of rest, but this is trending toward a dreaded game-time decision.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chester Rogers and Josh Reynolds: If A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both out, this figures to be Ryan Tannehill‘s primary WR trio. Westbrook-Ikhine led the Tennessee WRs in snaps last week and had 4-53-1. He’s a second-year man who was an undrafted free agent from Indiana, where he had a respectable but unexciting college career. At 6-3 and 216 pounds, he offers a good combination of size and speed. Rogers and Reynolds are better-known commodities to most fantasy managers and have been longtime denizens of waiver lists. Rogers has 7-90-1 so far and made himself useful at times during his four years with the Colts. Reynolds was the most promising prospect of the group, but he’s been a healthy scratch in two of the Titans’ first three games. Westbrook-Ikhine is the only mildly interesting player from this group based on last week’s usage, but I wouldn’t want to use any of them in Week 4 even if Brown and Jones are both out.
Corey Davis: Elijah Moore is dealing with a concussion and missed Wednesday’s practice. Moore isn’t playable in fantasy yet, but his absence could boost the target outlook for Davis, who’s already the team target leader with 22. After going for 5-97-2 in the season opener against the Panthers, Davis has had 7-49-0 in the two games since. The Jets’ passing game has been in a sorry state, with rookie QB Zach Wilson under near-constant pressure, but Davis might still be able to do some business against Titans CB Jackrabbit (formerly Janoris) Jenkins. Consider him a back-end WR3.
Tight Ends
Anthony Firkser: A knee issue has kept Firkser out of action for the last two games, but he returned to practice this week. It’s an opportune time for the Titans to get him back, since WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are both questionable due to hamstring problems. Consider Firkser to be a low-end TE2 this week.
Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin: This duo combined for 11 targets in Week 1 but have had five combined targets since. Kroft had been leading in snap share, but Griffin played more snaps in Week 3. Only fantasy managers in the deepest of leagues would have any interest in what’s going on here.
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bears -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bears 22.75, Lions 19.75
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has gotten a lot of criticism for his past failings with the Chargers, but he’s quietly doing a good job of making the Detroit offense functional despite its myriad shortcomings. The most glaring of those shortcomings is a paucity of talent at wide receiver, so Lynn is running the offense through his two primary RBs and his stud TE. Goff has directed 54.2% of his throws at his RBs and TEs. His average of 3.3 air yards on completions is second-lowest in the league behind only Matt Ryan, according to Next Gen Stats. Bottom line: Goff is getting the ball out quickly and getting it to his best pass catchers. That formula isn’t going to lead to a lot of big games unless Goff gets the sort of weird game script he got in Week 1 when he attempted 57 passes, but it’s keeping the Lions’ offense afloat, and Goff is the QB14 in fantasy right now. The Bears’ cornerbacks aren’t great but expect more of the same RB/TE focus from the Lions this week in an effort to neutralize a Bears pass rush that has recorded 11 sacks. Goff is my QB25.
Justin Fields and Nick Foles: If Mike Tagliere were writing this, he would be fiercely critical of head coach Matt Nagy. Tags thought Nagy was a terrible play-caller, and Nagy’s tactical shortcomings were on display last weekend. There were too many straight dropbacks for Fields against the Browns, too few designed runs and rollouts. Chicago’s receivers were running a lot of short routes, and Cleveland’s defensive backs were jumping those routes when they realized that Chicago receivers weren’t going deep. Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks, told Mike Florio of NBC and Pro Football Talk that the Browns were surprised Fields just sat in the pocket as much as he did. In fairness, Cleveland’s pass rush was way too much for Chicago’s mediocre offensive line and probably would have blown up whatever the Bears tried. But there seemed to be little effort to have Fields do what he does best: throw downfield and run. After the Week 3 disaster, everyone is going to be off Fields this week. But as Baron Rothschild once said, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” The Bears face a Lions defense that’s almost completely helpless in the secondary right now. Injuries to CBs Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu have gutted an already feeble collection of cornerbacks. Baltimore receivers were running wide open through the Detroit secondary last week, and Lamar Jackson would have had a monster passing day were it not for WR Marquise Brown frittering away three long potential touchdowns with egregious drops. Nagy is a lame duck and will be coaching elsewhere next year. But at 43, Nagy still has a long career ahead of him, and he’s coaching for his future. If he wants to land with another NFL team next year rather than being the quarterbacks’ coach at the University of Toledo, he’d best come up with a viable game plan for his young quarterback. I suspect Fields is going to look much better this week. I have him ranked QB17, well above his ECR of QB20, and I think Fields is a phenomenal contrarian play on DraftKings at only $5,200.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams: Swift is a good reminder that talent usually trumps situation (or perceived situation) in fantasy football. He was going in the third round of most fantasy drafts, and it looks as if he’ll probably be a consensus first-rounder in 2022. Swift currently ranks RB3 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR). His 19 receptions rank second among RBs, trailing only Najee Harris. Swift is only averaging 11 carries per game, but if you add his 23 targets, he’s averaging 18.7 opportunities per game. You’re keeping him in your lineups, of course. Swift also makes a sturdy cash-game play on DraftKings at a very reasonably priced $6,200. Despite Swift’s star trajectory, Williams is producing, too. He’s had 42 carries + targets in the Lions’ RB-centric offense. Williams is the RB14 in fantasy scoring largely because of his four touchdowns, but he’s still a reasonable weekly flex play, perhaps even a weekly RB2 for those who used a zero-RB draft strategy.
David Montgomery: Even in a disastrous game against the Browns, Montgomery was able to squeeze out 55 yards from scrimmage. The floor here is pretty sturdy, but it’s unclear what the ceiling is with Justin Fields at quarterback. Montgomery caught 2 of 4 targets last week, and mobile quarterbacks typically don’t dump off to their RBs as much as the statues do. The home matchup against the Lions is a good one. Consider Montgomery a high-end RB2 for this week. With the safe floor and unknown ceiling, he probably works better in DraftKings cash games than in GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Quintez Cephus, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond and Trinity Benson: Yuck. It seemed as if Quintez Cephus might become the leader of this motley crew, but after seeing seven targets in each of his first two games, Cephus saw only one target last week. Kalif Raymond leads this group in targets (16), receptions (11), and receiving yards (136). Raymond’s target and reception totals are already new single-season highs for him. Tyrell Williams will come off IR in Week 6 or perhaps later, making this situation even more muddled. (And no, don’t expect Williams to seize an alpha role either.) To quote Obi-Wan Kenobi, “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.”
Allen Robinson: If you have A-Rob on your team, you’re probably wondering whether to trade him for 60 cents on the dollar. Although he’s probably not going to give you the return on investment you were hoping for when you drafted him, it’s probably best to hold tight. Robinson is currently the WR67 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR) and hasn’t topped 35 yards in any of his three games. But he stands a good chance of bouncing back this week in a home game against a Detroit defense with all sorts of injury problems at cornerback. Play Robinson with confidence this week and don’t sell while his value is at rock bottom.
Darnell Mooney: The fleet-footed Mooney had only one catch for nine yards in the Bears’ Week 3 fiasco against Cleveland. I can’t recommend Mooney as confidently as I’m recommending Allen Robinson this week because Mooney is never a safe bet for target volume. He’s seen double-digit targets in just 2 of 18 career games. But Mooney definitely has a chance to pop against a bad, injury-depleted Lions secondary. I have him at WR50 this week. That probably puts him outside starter range in most leagues. At a price of only $3,900 on DraftKings, Mooney will be in at least one of my GPP entries.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: Hock was quiet last Sunday, catching two passes for 10 yards against the Ravens, but he still has 18-173-2 on the season and is a must-start. The Bears are only giving up 5.0 fantasy points per game (0.5. PPR) to opposing tight ends, so Hockenson’s $5,800 DraftKings price isn’t that appealing.
Cole Kmet: I like Kmet but can’t recommend using him anywhere until we see some evidence of chemistry with QB Justin Fields. He’s a low-end TE2 this week.
Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins
Date/Time: Sunday October 3, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Dolphins -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Dolphins 2.25, Colts 20.75
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz: Props to Wentz for playing on two sprained ankles against the Titans, but a QB31 finish for the week is probably what we should have expected. The Colts’ offense ranks 27th in passing DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and 23rd in passing yardage. With Wentz presumably still hobbled, and with the Colts facing a Jacoby Brissett-led Miami offense that isn’t likely to force a shootout, Wentz is a complete stay-away in Week 4.
Jacoby Brissett: The Colts have given up nine TD passes this season to a combination of Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, and Ryan Tannehill. That probably shouldn’t be interpreted as a reason to use Brissett, who isn’t nearly as accomplished as those three fellows. Brissett hasn’t thrown a TD pass since replacing the injured Tua Tagovailoa early in Week 2.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines: The Colts would probably love to have Taylor run more. He averaged 20 carries a game over the Colts’ last six regular-season games of 2020 and their lone playoff game. But things have gone sideways for the Colts in 2021. They’re 0-3 and have played from behind almost constantly, so Taylor is averaging 14 carries a game. Taylor’s 64 rushing yards in Week 3 were a season high, he still hasn’t scored a touchdown, and the negative game scripts boost the snap counts for Hines, who’s only played eight fewer snaps than Taylor so far. It’s a nightmare scenario for Taylor stakeholders. The good news this week is that a Miami offense quarterbacked by Jacoby Brissett probably isn’t going to build a lead so large that Indy has to abandon the running game. Miami has given up the sixth-most rushing yards in the league and has allowed four TD runs. The Dolphins somehow managed to let Raiders backup Peyton Barber run for 111 yards and a touchdown this week. It’s a get-right spot for Taylor, who checks in at RB8. Hines is a high-end RB4 in half-point PPR, a low-end RB3 in full-point PPR.
Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, and Salvon Ahmed: After getting only 14 carries in his first two games, Gaskin had 13 carries against the Raiders in Week 3 and finished with 65 rushing yards. He’s had at least five targets in every game, and I think the reasonably stable usage keeps Gaskin in the RB2 conversation most weeks. After playing only 12% of the offensive snaps in Week 2, Malcolm Brown‘s Week 3 snap share surged to 41%, while Ahmed went from a 31% snap share in Week 2 to barely playing in Week 3. For now, Gaskin is the only member of the Dolphins’ backfield worth your attention. There just isn’t enough TD potential to support more than one Miami RB – and even Gaskin is still in search of his first touchdown.
Wide Receivers
Michael Pittman: He’s seen 12 targets in each of his last two games and has gone 14-211-0 over that span. Pittman has asserted himself as the Colts’ No. 1 receiver, and it’s to his credit that he’s fantasy-viable even though the Indy passing game is pretty toothless overall. But this might be a good week to keep Pittman on your bench, since he figures to take most of his snaps against Xavien Howard, one of the top cover men in the game. Pittman is my WR40 this week.
Zach Pascal: After scoring three TDs in his first two games, Pascal was finally kept out of the end zone last week. He caught 2 of 7 targets for 31 yards against the Titans. As much as everyone likes this plucky overachiever, he’s not a great investment. Pascal hasn’t had more than five catches in a game since Week 13 of 2019, and the Colts don’t have the sort of high-octane passing game that can elevate a marginally talented receiver to fantasy relevance. Unless the TDs break Pascal’s way, he’s not going to be useful.
Parris Campbell: With Zach Pascal playing almost exclusively in the slot, Campbell is lining up outside, and that’s not really his bag. He’s played 69% of the offensive snaps in the two games he’s dressed for, but he’s only been targeted seven times, and he’s produced 3-33-0. Campbell is unplayable.
Jaylen Waddle: Is the rookie Miami’s No. 1 receiver? He had a bizarre stat line in Week 3, catching 12 of 13 targets for 58 yards. One of those catches was for a safety, with Jacoby Brissett taking the snap, immediately firing the ball wide left to Waddle, who was instantly tackled – a strange play call indeed. Waddle has lethal speed, but his average depth of target is just 4.2 yards. Maybe the fast-guy-with-low-aDOT thing can work for Waddle. It sort of worked for Curtis Samuel last year, though Samuel’s 7.3 aDOT wasn’t as shallow as Waddle’s, and it kind of worked for Deebo Samuel last year, though Deebo isn’t the burner that Waddle is. Maybe Waddle just need to change his last name to Samuel to make his current role work. I’m still a little wary of using the Dolphins’ prized rookie. Miami has two other pretty good WRs and a good pass-catching TE, and Brissett isn’t talented enough to support four fantasy-viable pass catchers. Waddle falls into midrange WR4 territory for me this week.
DeVante Parker: The mercurial Parker has been uncharacteristically consistent so far in 2021, with at least seven targets, four catches, and 42 receiving yards in every game. I doubt we’ll continue to see that consistency now that the return of Will Fuller to the Miami offense gives the Dolphins three credible wide receivers. I have Parker at WR53.
Will Fuller: After missing one game due to suspension and another for personal reasons, Fuller made his Miami debut in Week 3 and caught 3 of 6 targets for 20 yards. He’s coming off a career-best season in which he had 879 yards and eight touchdowns in only 11 games. A healthy Fuller can be impactful, but he has to compete with Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker (and TE Mike Gesicki) for targets, and those targets are coming from either Tua Tagovailoa or Jacoby Brissett. Fuller is my WR54 this week. I don’t think he’s playable until we get a better read on this Miami WR group.
Tight Ends
Jack Doyle: After catching 8-85-0 in his first two games, Doyle had one catch for 10 yards in Week 3. Slow, unathletic TEs in popgun passing attacks generally aren’t good bets, and it doesn’t help that Doyle shares work with Mo Alie-Cox. No thanks.
Mike Gesicki: It was hard to see Gesicki’s Week 3 performance coming. Will Fuller returned to the Miami offense after missing the first two games, so it seemed as if Gesicki was destined to take a haircut in snaps, since the Dolphins figured to use more three-WR sets, and they also like to play blocking TE Durham Smythe on occasion. But Gesicki played a season-high 55 snaps and caught 10 of 12 targets for 86 yards. Gesicki was split out from the line on all but a handful of snaps, which generally bodes well for his involvement in the passing game. I just don’t know if I can trust Gesicki when the Dolphins have three pretty good receivers and have had Gesicki on a usage yo-yo for a while now.
