New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Date/Time: Sunday September 19, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -6
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Patriots 24.25, Jets 18.25
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones: In his first NFL start, Jones was an efficient game manager, completing 29 of 39 passes for 281 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. His second NFL start looks like a sneaky smash spot. Jones faces the Jets, who have two second-year cornerbacks and four rookie cornerbacks on the roster. Jets safety Lamarcus Joyner is out for the season with an elbow injury. This is a secondary ripe for the picking, but is Jones up to the task? He was crisp in Week 1, completing 74.4% of his throws to eight different pass catchers. He had zero rushing attempts, but running isn’t really his game. (I mean, have you seen the photos of that shirtless bod?) I’m fairly bullish on Jones this week, putting him at QB19. I don’t think he’ll find his way into many single-QB lineups this week, but he absolutely belongs in superflex lineups, and I’ll plug him into at least one DFS lineup this weekend because the matchup is so mouth-watering.
Zach Wilson: The rookie took a beating from the Carolina pass rush early in his NFL debut, but he hung in admirably and wound up producing decent numbers: 20 of 37 for 258 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. The heat that Wilson faced in Week 1 might have only been a preview of things to come. Wilson’s behemoth blind-side protector, left tackle Mekhi Becton, is expected to be out 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. The Jets’ running game struggled badly in Week 1, suggesting that opposing pass rushers are going to be able to pin back their ears and come after Wilson without being too concerned about losing gap integrity. Wilson’s opponent this week, the Patriots, gave up the eighth fewest passing yards in 2020 and tied for the league lead in interceptions. Despite the moxie he showed in Week 1, Wilson doesn’t look like a viable fantasy play this week simply because of concerns about his protection.
Running Backs
Damien Harris, James White, and Rhamondre Stevenson: The Patriots probably would be 1-0 if Harris hadn’t coughed up a late fumble deep in Dolphins territory, preventing a game-winning field goal try. So, could Harris lose snaps to Stevenson, the rugged rookie who punched in five touchdowns in three preseason games? Er, probably not, since Stevenson fumbled early after a 9-yard catch (though it looked as if he might have been down when the ball came out) and only played five snaps. On the other hand, Harris played 53% of New England’s offensive snaps and had 23 carries for 100 yards. He also caught a couple of passes for 17 yards. Expect Harris to be the lead runner Sunday against a Jets defense that gave up 98 rushing yards to Christian McCaffrey. The Jets also let CMC catch nine balls for 89 yards, so perhaps there’s room for the Patriots’ designated pass-catching back, James White, to do some damage, too. It’s possible Belichick punishes Stevenson for his lost fumble by deactivating him and using 5-6, 185-pound J.J. Taylor instead.
Ty Johnson, Tevin Coleman, and Michael Carter: This trio had 17 combined carries for 45 yards against the Panthers last week. Carolina had a mediocre run defense last year, so that’s a pretty alarming lack of production for the Jets’ three-headed backfield. Johnson played 35 of the Jets’ 65 offensive snaps – more than twice as many as Coleman and Carter. He only had four carries for 15 yards and one catch for 11 yards. It was Coleman who led the Jets in carries, rushing nine times for 24 yards. He wasn’t targeted in the passing game. If you’re speculating on longer-term RB assets, Carter is probably still the guy to target in this backfield. The fourth-round pick from North Carolina had four carries for six yards and had a 14-yard catch against Carolina. That’s an ugly stat line, but Carter is an accomplished prospect with a versatile run-catch skill set. For now, though, you’re not putting any of these guys in your starting lineup.
Wide Receivers
Jakobi Meyers: A mid-round darling in 2021 fantasy drafts, Meyers was a mild disappointment in Week 1, catching 6 of 9 targets for 44 yards. Those are possession-receiver numbers for a possession receiver, so no one should be salty about that stat line. This week, however, a 44-yard output isn’t going to cut it. The Jets’ young secondary is vulnerable, and Meyers is going to get a lot of face time with rookie slot corner Michael Carter II. I have Meyers pegged as a low-end WR3 this week.
Nelson Agholor: It was a nice New England debut for Agholor, who turned seven targets into five catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. His best grab was a gutsy 26-yarder over the middle that required him to take a big hit from a safety a split second after making the catch. Agholor draws a matchup with rookie CB Brandin Echols – an attractive setup. I have Agholor ranked WR38 this week.
Corey Davis: Not a bad debut with the Jets, huh? Davis caught 5 of 7 targets for 97 yards and two touchdowns. Based on what we’ve seen in the preseason and now in a game that counted, Davis is clearly the alpha receiver here, and he already seems to have a nice rapport with Zach Wilson. He’s the only Jet I’d be willing to plug into any of my lineups this weekend. I have him at WR30, in mid-WR3 territory.
Elijah Moore: It was a bust statistically, but Moore’s NFL debut could have been a lot better. He finished with one catch for minus-3 yards. There was a “drop” on a deep throw from Zach Wilson early on (though it would have been a fairly difficult catch to make) and a 22-yard reception in the fourth quarter that was negated by an illegal formation penalty. This isn’t the week to give Moore a spot start, but giving up on him based on his Week 1 stat line would be foolhardy.
Jamison Crowder: He was on the COVID-19 list for Week 1, but Crowder is being activated this week. Does his usual slot role still remain now that Elijah Moore is still around? That remains to be seen. Crowder is unplayable for now, and it’s possible he’ll be a fantasy non-factor all season.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry: The Patriots gave these two tight ends a combined seven years and $87.4 million in free agency back in March, and they both had decent starts with their new team. Smith caught 5 of 5 targets for 42 yards. Henry caught 3 of 3 targets for 31 yards. The Jets have issues at linebacker and in the secondary, so either Smith or Henry (or perhaps both) could erupt. I have Smith at TE9, safely within TE1 range, and Henry is just outside it at TE13.
Tyler Kroft and Ryan Griffin: It seemed as if Kroft might be a decent streamer TE option this year, but Griffin’s involvement may put the kibosh on that notion. Kroft played two-thirds of the snaps in the Jets’ opener, catching 3 of 5 targets for 26 yards. Griffin played 48% of the snaps and caught 3 of 6 targets for 22 yards. There’s no reason to invest with Kroft not commanding a greater share of TE snaps and targets in this offense.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Sunday September 19, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bears -2.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bears 23.5, Bengals 21
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: In his first game back from a major knee injury, Burrow acquitted himself nicely in an overtime win over the Vikings. Now let’s see what he can do in a more favorable matchup against one of the worst CB groups in the league. Burrow was efficient against a Minnesota defense that’s mostly whole again after a barrage of 2020 injuries, completing 21 of 27 passes for 261 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The young quarterback took five sacks and some additional hits, but he survived. Now he gets to face the Bears, who Matt Stafford fricasseed on Monday night, averaging 12.4 yards per pass attempt. The tasty matchup puts Burrow just outside QB1 range at QB13.
Andy Dalton: With the season opener against a vicious Rams defense out of the way, the Justin Fields watch is on in Chicago. The Bears gave Fields five snaps in Week 1 and figure to increase his snap count over the next week or two (or three) before eventually giving Dalton the hook. A matchup with the Bengals sure beats a matchup with the Rams, but Dalton still isn’t usable.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: Mixon leads the NFL carries with 29, and he may never relinquish his lead if Bengals head coach Zac Taylor keeps using the running game in an attempt to keep Joe Burrow intact behind a shaky offensive line. After Burrow was sacked early in the fourth quarter and came up slightly limping, Cincinnati ran the ball on 13 of its last 18 offensive plays. The Bengals are motivated to keep their franchise QB healthy after his devastating knee injury last year, and running the ball effectively is a big part of that plan. Mixon deserves credit, of course. He ran for 127 yards and a touchdown, and he also caught all four of his targets for 23 yards. The Bears are better against the run than they are against the pass, but I still expect Mixon to get 18 or more carries as part of the Burrow-preservation plan.
David Montgomery: Monty had the Bears backfield almost entirely to himself last year after satellite back Tarik Cohen wrecked his knee. Now he has Damien Williams as a backup, and while Montgomery played 41 snaps against the Rams on Sunday night, Williams played 30. Montgomery averaged 24.8 touches over the final five games of 2020. In Week 1, he had a more modest workload, carrying 16 times for 108 yards and a touchdown and catching his lone target for 10 yards. Williams, meanwhile, carried six times for 12 yards and caught 4 of 5 targets for 28 yards. This isn’t a committee by any means, but Williams has a significant role. He’s still not startable, however, and Monty remains a must-start.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins: He dealt with dehydration issues in the opener and was briefly carted off the field, but Higgins hung in and finished with four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Higgins investors probably wouldn’t have minded if Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase had continued to drop passes in the regular season. Alas, Chase looked as good as he was advertised coming out of college, and a big year for Chase would certainly tighten the lid on Higgins’ upside. That said, Higgins figures to play a fair amount of snaps against Bears CB Kindle Vildor this weekend in what looks like a serious mismatch.
Ja’Marr Chase: Now, THIS is the real Ja’Marr Chase. A sluggish, butterfingered performance in training camp and the preseason steadily drove down Chase’s average draft position in late August and into September. But the rookie from LSU looked terrific in his NFL debut, catching 5 of 7 targets for 101 yards and a TD. The touchdown was a 50-yard beauty on which Chase simply blew by Vikings CB Bashaud Breeland. Chase gets the toughest assignment of any Bengals receiver this week, having to take most of his snaps against good young CB Jaylon Johnson. But by no means is this a skull-and-crossbones matchup for Chase, who should be considered a high-end WR3.
Tyler Boyd: The Bengals’ slot man largely missed out on the Week 1 fun, catching 3 of 4 targets for 32 yards, but he has an appealing matchup against Marqui Christian. I have him ranked WR36 this week, but Boyd has the potential to considerably outkick that ranking.
Allen Robinson: A-Rob got ample face time with Rams CB Jalen Ramsey in Week 1, and not surprisingly, his numbers suffered. Robinson saw 11 targets and caught six balls, but he only had 35 receiving yards and couldn’t find the end zone. This week, he faces a better draw against Chidobe Awuzie, but Robinson won’t get back into weekly WR1 range until Justin Fields replaces Andy Dalton at quarterback.
Darnell Mooney: Like Allen Robinson, Mooney got Dalton-ed against the Rams in Week 1, catching 5 of 7 targets for only 26 yards. The Bengals present more favorable WR-CB matchups than the Rams did, but Mooney is a low-end WR4 this week simply because Dalton doesn’t possess the skeleton key that can unlock Mooney’s vertical skills.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah: He had two catches for 35 yards in the opener, but in a WR-centric passing game, Uzomah is unplayable in conventional fantasy leagues.
Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham: Kmet is a player to target. He started winning the weekly snap battle against teammate Jimmy Graham late last year, and now he’s left Graham in the dust. Kmet played 51 of 69 Week 1 snaps. Graham played 14. Kmet’s five-catch, 42-yard stat line doesn’t quicken pulses, but a seven-target game is going to be a lot more valuable when the Bears inevitably change quarterbacks and upgrade from Andy Dalton to Justin Fields. Pick up or trade for Kmet while you can still do so affordably.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Sunday September 19, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -12.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Buccaneers 32, Falcons 20
Coming Soon!
Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan: How do the Falcons possibly fix everything that went wrong in their 32-6 shellacking at the hands of the Eagles in less than a week’s time? After the Atlanta offensive line failed to keep the Eagles’ plundering horde at bay, how does it stop the defending champs? It was weird to see an Arthur Smith offense look so … broken. The one rationale for starting Ryan in fantasy this week is that the Tampa run defense is basically impregnable, so the Falcons will have little choice but to throw. I’m just not sure Ryan can survive a pass-happy game plan. He’s a mid-range QB2 this week.
Tom Brady: I wrote a semi-lengthy treatise last week in this space, noting that Payton Manning and Brett Favre had sudden collapses at a younger age than Brady. Of course, Brady then went out and took a flamethrower to the Dallas defense in the Thursday-night opener. Maybe Brady was THE guy to target in this offense all along. It beats trying to pick the right receivers in this offense (or the right tight ends) every week. After toasting Dallas for 379 yards and four touchdowns, Brady now gets to face an Atlanta defense that had no answer for Jalen Hurts last week.
Running Backs
Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson: The Falcons didn’t get trucked by the Eagles *because of* their running game. Mike Davis didn’t show a lot of juice, and maybe that’s what we should have expected from a 28-year-old backup, but that’s not why Atlanta got crushed. Davis carried 15 times for 49 yards and caught 3 of 6 targets for 23 yards. Human Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson looked a little more frisky than Davis, rushing seven times for 54 yards and catching two passes for 13 yards. Neither of these guys is playable this week against that nasty Tampa run defense. I have Davis ranked as a back-end RB3.
Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Giovani Bernard: Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians is already setting us up for guesswork. After Jones lost an early fumble, Fournette wound up shouldering most of the load, playing 42 of 65 snaps and handling 14 touches (nine carries, five receptions). Jones played just six snaps, had four carries for 14 yards and didn’t see a target. Bernard, just back from a sprained ankle, played 17 snaps, but he didn’t have a rushing attempt and caught 2 of 3 targets for 12 yards. The RoJo fumble seemed to trigger Fournette workhorse usage, but then Arians said earlier this week that Jones would start in Week 2. This is a murky situation, and people will probably spend too much time trying to decipher a three-headed backfield on a pass-happy team.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: If the Falcons can’t get Ridley untracked, they might as well pack up the equipment trucks and head back to Flowery Branch. Ridley had three catches for 39 yards on Atlanta’s opening drive but then had just two catches for 12 yards the rest of the way. In Ridley’s two games against the Falcons last year, he drew 26 targets and caught 18 balls for 215 yards and a touchdown.
Russell Gage: This is an interesting crossroads for Gage. He was blanked last week, drawing only two targets and failing to make a single catch. But against the Buccaneers this week, Gage will go up against Bucs slot corner Ross Cockrell, who’s being forced into the lineup because Tampa’s usual slot corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, is out with a dislocated elbow. If there’s a matchup Gage can win, it’s this one.
Chris Godwin: The Buccaneers’ primary slot man saw a team-high 13 targets in the opener and had nine catches for 105 yards and a touchdown. Now he draws a plum matchup against an Atlanta defense he torched for three touchdowns in two games last season. Falcons slot corner Isaiah Oliver had best bring a lunchbox.
Mike Evans: The only one of the Bucs’ top three receivers to be left out of the fun against Dallas Thursday night, Evans had three catches for 24 yards on six targets. Evans might be the most fragile of the Buccaneers’ receivers from a fantasy standpoint – which seems an odd thing to say about a dude who’s strung together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. But Evans barely cleared the 1,000-yard bar last year despite playing all 16 games, and only the highest TD total of his career (13) kept him in WR1 territory. What if Evans is the third-best receiver on his own team? That’s not to say you should fade Evans this week. I expect him to create nightmares for Falcons CB Fabian Moreau, though it should be noted that Evans failed to score a touchdown in his two contests against Atlanta last season.
Antonio Brown: He’s 33 now, but AB looked like vintage Pittsburgh-era AB against Dallas last week, catching five ballas for 121 yards and a touchdown. Brown has scored five touchdowns in his last four regular-season games. In two matchups against the Falcons last year, Brown had 16 receptions for 231 yards and three touchdowns. It seems improbable that Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell will be able to hang with an all-time-great receiver who appears to have been gulping from the Fountain of Youth.
PRISTINE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Pristine Auction. For Week 2, Antonio Brown is Fitz’s Pristine Matchup of the Week.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: It’s wa-a-a-a-ay too early to make any sweeping assessments of Pitts based on one game. He played 49 of 72 snaps, ran routes on the majority of the snaps he played and caught four of eight targets for 31 yards. The efficiency wasn’t there, but it was encouraging that the wildly talented rookie from Florida tied for the team lead in targets. Pitts’ matchup against Bucs LB Devin White will be fun to watch. I haven’t moved off the position that Pitts is a mid-range TE1.
Rob Gronkowski: Let’s face it: We weren’t drafting Gronk early enough. He continues to produce when healthy. He finished TE8 last year, and he’s off to a roaring start this year, having caught 8 of 8 targets against the Cowboys for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Health is the only risk with Gronkowski, and we tend to over-penalize the players we perceive to be injury risks, failing to fully account for the replacement value we get when we plug in another player for the injured guy. Kudos to all the wise fantasy managers who ran it back with Gronk this year.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Sunday September 19, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cardinals -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 27.5, Vikings 23.5
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: It seemed as if Cousins wasn’t sensing pressure very well in the early stages of Minnesota’s Week 1 loss to Cincinnati. Or maybe that’s just a euphemism for Cousins holding onto the ball way too long. It turned out to be a decent-on-paper performance for Cousins – 36 of 49, 351 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions – but the visuals weren’t quite as impressive. Cousins is going to have to do a better job with the pressure thing this week. The Cardinals sacked Ryan Tannehill six times last week, with Chandler Jones recording five of the six sacks. Arizona may be slightly vulnerable at cornerback, but the Cards can really put heat on the QB.
Kyler Murray: Man, I would HATE playing against this guy if I were a defensive lineman or edge rusher. There are times in every game where it looks like a defender has Murray in the crosshairs only to have him dart away in an unexpected direction. I’m not entirely sure Murray is a real person; I think a video-game designer might have created him. Murray was masterful in the Cardinals’ 38-13 destruction of the Cardinals – accurate, elusive, totally in command of the Arizona offense. He completed 21 of 32 passes for 289 yards, with four touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for 20 yards and a touchdown. This isn’t a diss on Josh Allen, but if I could redo draft rankings today, I’d have Murray at QB2 instead of Allen, and I’d even be a little tempted to make Murray the QB1 over Patrick Mahomes. The Minnesota defense will pose a tougher test than the Tennessee defense did in Week 1, but it seems as if there’s only a small handful of NFL defenses Murray isn’t capable of clowning.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook: It’s a little surprising Cook didn’t have a better game against a lightly regarded Bengals defense. He ran 20 times for 61 yards and a touchdown. That’s only 3.1 yards per carry, and Cook wouldn’t have had the touchdown if the officials hadn’t taken away an obvious TD from Justin Jefferson. Cook was also targeted seven times and had six catches for 43 yards. The Arizona defense managed to keep Derrick Henry in check last week, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against another premier back.
Chase Edmonds and James Conner: After getting repeated doses of Joe Mixon in week 1, the Minnesota defense will have to deal with a two-headed backfield in Week 2. Chase Edmonds and James Conner split work pretty evenly in Arizona’s win over Tennessee. Edmonds played 58% of the offensive snaps and rushed 12 times for 63 yards, adding four receptions for 43 yards. Conner played 49% of the offensive snaps and rushed 16 times for 53 yards. He wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Given that the Cardinals were in firm command of their Week 1 game from the second quarter on, I might have guessed that Conner would have had a better game than Edmonds, since Conner seems to better fit a ground-and-pound, milk-the-clock approach. The combination of a superior snap share and a much healthier role in the passing game suggests that Edmonds is the better investment.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: As noted in the Dalvin Cook blurb, Jefferson was robbed of a touchdown where he pretty clearly crossed the goal line before the ball squirted out and was recovered by the Vikings. Jefferson couldn’t quite get it going in Week 1, but a 5-71-0 line on nine targets isn’t terrible. Jefferson’s primary defender on Sunday should be Marco Wilson – a matchup Jefferson should win.
Adam Thielen: There was a play last week where Thielen lined up in the slot on the right side, used a deke to get inside leverage on Cincinnati’s Mike Hilton, then took a short pass and sprinted 20 yards for a touchdown. I’m not sure what was more impressive – the deke or the sprint. Probably the sprint, since Thielen is a relatively old man at age 31. He actually looked speedy. Thielen had a big day, catching 9 of 10 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown. His matchup with Robert Alford this week is no cakewalk.
K.J. Osborn: The surprise winner of the Vikings’ No. 3 WR job played a robust 81% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 and caught 7 of 9 targets for 76 yards. We figured it would be a skinny target tree in Minnesota, but there’s a new branch. Osbourne is 6-0, 203 pounds with 4.48 speed and good athleticism. He wasn’t a college star, playing three seasons at Buffalo before transferring to Miami-Fla. His best season was a 53-892-7 year at Buffalo in 2018. But Osborn looked sharp in Cincinnati last Sunday and may have a chance to carve out a significant role in the Minnesota offense.
DeAndre Hopkins: What can you say about this guy? He makes it look easy. I don’t know if there’s a receiver better at simultaneously coordinating his hands to make a tough catch and his feet to stay inbounds. Hopkins caught 6 of 8 targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns. Imagine the game script had been slightly different and Murray had attempted 42 passes instead of 32. “Nuk” might have gone nuclear. In an interesting matchup twist, Hopkins figures to get a lot of face time with his teammate from last year, Patrick Peterson. I like Hopkins in that confrontation.
Rondale Moore: There was a play in Arizona’s Week 1 game that perfectly illustrated the talents of Moore – and to some extent Murray. The play began with Murray in the shotgun. Arizona center Rodney Hudson uncorked a groundball snap toward Murray, who calmly corralled it, turned and fired a throw to Moore in the left flat. Moore snatched it cleanly, darted upfield and weaved through traffic for a 29-yard game. Murray and Moore made it look so easy. Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury is bound to realize it’s a travesty for the 2021 version of A.J. Green to play on 80% of the offensive snaps and Moore to play on 29%. At least the Cardinals endeavor to get Moore involved when he’s out there. He saw five targets on his 20 snaps, turning them into four catches for 68 yards.
Christian Kirk: I thought the drafting of Rondale Moore might gut Kirk’s value, but he played 39 of 69 snaps and caught all five of his targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Maybe we could still get the long-awaited Christin Kirk breakout. Kirk’s probable matchup with Minnesota slot corner Mackensie Alexander is favorable.
A.J. Green: I was hoping we could chalk up Green’s 2020 inefficiency to injuries, but I think he’s just dusted. It just seems like he has a defender in his hip pocket on every play now. This isn’t how a star deserves to go out.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin and Chris Herndon: Conklin played 59 of 83 snaps in the opener and caught 4 of 4 targets for 41 yards. Conklin’s fantasy value may be tied to K.J. Osborne. Heavy involvement for Osborne would likely cut into Conklin’s target share. Herndon only played 12 snaps in Week 1 and is less of an obstacle to Conklin. I don’t envision Herndon becoming fantasy-relevant.
Maxx Williams: Williams saw just one target last week on 55 snaps. Don’t bother with Arizona tight ends.
