New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -5.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Jets 19.75, Panthers 25.25
Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson: It may not be a revenge game for Wilson, but he’s no doubt anxious to prove to Jets fans that the team made the right move by drafting him and getting rid of Sam Darnold. Earlier this year, Fantasy Twitter and NFL Draft Twitter seemed aghast that the Jets would draft Wilson over Trey Lance and Justin Fields, but public opinion seemed to swing in Wilson’s favor a bit after a couple of good preseason showings. Wilson has all the tools, including a big arm, ample mobility, and no apparent shortage of self-confidence. He’ll almost surely encounter rookie turbulence – I have a small wager on him leading the league in interceptions this year – but we’re likely to get some spike weeks, too. Maybe we’ll get one this week against a Carolina defense that ranked 25th in opponent passer rating and 26th in opponent completion percentage last year.
Sam Darnold: You know those videos about stray, malnourished dogs who are rescued by kindly animal lovers and transformed into happy, healthy pets? That’s pretty much Darnold. Former Jets head coach Adam Gase is the junkyard owner who never gave his highly pedigreed quarterback the proper care. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady are the rescuers giving Darnold a home in one of the league’s QB-friendliest systems, surrounded by plenty of pass-catching talent. And, wow, what a nice way for Darnold to start off with his new team – a home game against his former employers, who happen to have one of the worst defensive backfields in the league. This is a terrific spot for Darnold. I’m not only starting him in a couple of redraft leagues (granted, they’re superflex leagues), but I’m also going to throw him into a couple of DFS lineups.
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and Michael Carter: Who has the most fantasy value in this backfield? The assumption for months was that Carter, a fourth-round pick from North Carolina with run-catch versatility, would be the guy to target here, but Carter apparently did little to distinguish himself in training camp and is buried on the depth chart behind Coleman, Johnson, La’Mical Perine, two assistant equipment managers and a MetLife Stadium hot dog vendor. This is going to be an evolving situation, however. Coleman has the most NFL experience but is sort of a known commodity. There’s no hidden upside with him. Johnson flashed at times last year, but does he have more potential than Carter? Perine is a 2020 fourth-rounder who didn’t show much as a rookie. This situation is best avoided for now, but it’s a safe bet that speculators will sink a fair amount of FAAB money into this backfield in 2021.
Christian McCaffery: How nice will it be to watch this guy again? After finishing as the RB3 in 2018 (half-point PPR) and the RB1 in 2019, McCaffery got off to a torrid start in 2020, scoring six touchdowns in three games, but then missed almost the entire rest of the season due to multiple injuries. With apologies to Travis Kelce, McCaffery is THE single biggest positional difference-maker when healthy. The competitive edge he gives you at the all-important RB position is immense. No doubt Panthers head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady are anxious to attack the porous Jets secondary but expect them to work in plenty of handoffs and easy throws to McCaffery to take some of the pressure off Sam Darnold.
Wide Receivers
Corey Davis: The Jets gave Davis a three-year, $37.5 million deal in free agency, and “follow the money” is probably a good guideline to follow in trying to parse the Jets’ WR corps. Elijah Moore has drawn raves in practices, but Davis is probably the better bet to lead the Jets in targets and catches. Jamison Crowder has been on the COVID-19 list and may or may not play, and the Jets’ tight ends figure to be nonfactors in the passing game, so Davis has a decent chance to see double-digit targets in his Jets debut.
Elijah Moore: The rookie from Ole Miss was the talk of minicamps and training camp. A quad injury muted the buzz in recent weeks, but there’s still a lot of excitement for Moore, who had 86 catches for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns in his final college season. Moore’s Week 1 fantasy viability could depend on the availability of Jamison Crowder, who’s been on the COVID-19 list. If Crowder is out, there might be enough targets available to make Moore flex-worthy in a lot of leagues.
D.J. Moore: He’s sailed past the 1,100-yard mark in back-to-back seasons, and if not for lack of touchdowns (10 in his first three years), we’d already be talking about Moore as a superstar. There’s some intramural target competition for Moore. Robbie Anderson is a talented dude, and rookie Terrace Marshall was a smash hit in training camp. But Moore should be the alpha receiver in Carolina. The Jets are likely to send out second-year man Bryce Hall to face Moore. Hall is probably the Jets’ best cover man, but as bad as their cornerback group is, that’s really not saying much.
Robby Anderson: The personal history between Anderson and Panthers head coach Matt Rhule goes back to their time together at Temple, so Anderson’s big role in the Carolina offense last year probably shouldn’t have surprised us. But D.J. Moore is a superstar in the making, and rookie Terrace Marshall looks like a stud. Could Anderson be left out? It’s hard to fade him this week in a probable matchup against sixth-round rookie Brandin Echols.
Terrace Marshall: He didn’t get quite as much fanfare as fellow LSU receiver prospects Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, but Marshall balled out in training camp and has a chance to be fantasy-relevant in Year 1. He’ll get a plus matchup right from the start against rookie fifth-rounder Michael Carter II.
Tight Ends
Tyler Kroft: There seems to be some chemistry between Zach Wilson and Kroft, who caught two TD passes from Wilson in a preseason game against the Packers. In six NFL seasons, Kroft topped out at 404 yards and seven touchdowns for the Bengals in 2017. That’s probably about the upside here, even as the Jets’ No. 1 tight end.
Dan Arnold: This small-school gem from the University of Wisconsin-Platteville was sneaky-good for the Cardinals last year, catching 31 passes for 438 yards and four touchdowns. That’s 14.1 yards per catch – not shabby for a tight end. I just don’t know if there are going to be enough targets to give Arnold fantasy relevance on a team with three talented wide receivers plus Christian McCaffery.
Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cardinals 24.5, Titans 27.5
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: Murray averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game last year to finish QB2, but he was averaging 30.2 fantasy points per game through the first 10 weeks before sustaining a Week 11 shoulder injury. Murray has said the injury didn’t affect him as much as some people claim, but we saw what 10 weeks of a completely healthy Murray looked like, and it was spectacular. Murray’s Week 1 matchup is scrumptious. The Titans gave up the fourth-most passing yards in the league, and only the Lions yielded more than the 36 TD passes the Titans allowed. Tennessee’s 19 sacks also ranked near the bottom of the league. The additions of injury-prone pass rusher Bud Dupree and rookie CB Caleb Farley won’t do much to fix the Titans’ defensive woes. Murray should feast.
PRISTINE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK
Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Pristine Auction. For Week 1, Kyler Murray is Fitz’s Pristine Matchup of the Week.
Ryan Tannehill: This may have been one of the best QB values of fantasy draft season. Tannehill finished QB7 last year, and the Titans have since added Julio Jones, yet Tannehill’s final ADP was QB11. In fairness, Tannehill probably doesn’t have top-five upside. The Titans offense works best with Tannehill playing off the running threat posed by Derrick Henry, using play-action to efficiently attack defenses. Tannehill in an all-out aerial blitz probably wouldn’t look as good. The Cardinals can really get after the passer, as evidenced by their 48 sacks last year, but the abrupt retirement of CB Malcolm Butler has left them vulnerable in the secondary.
Running Backs
Chase Edmonds and James Conner: We’ll finally get to see how this backfield works. Conner is bigger and might be a better candidate for goal-line usage. Edmonds is quicker and figures to be the third-down guy. But who knows? Drafters have assumed all season that the value is close, slightly favoring Edmonds. I don’t disagree, but it’s possible we’ve got it all wrong.
Derrick Henry: Take a minute to appreciate this throwback to an earlier era of football. Henry logged 378 regular-season carries last year. Think about that. That’s 23.6 carries a game, 5.9 carries a quarter. He’s led the league in rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns for two straight seasons. He’s been RB3 and RB2 (half-point PPR) the last two years. The man is a machine. But this is a Week 1 preview article, so I suppose we should muse upon what Henry will do on Sunday. Here’s a guess: He’s going to carry the ball often and effectively.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: “Nuk” racked up 160 targets in his first year with the Cardinals, trailing only Stefon Diggs in that category. He figures to have a massive target load again and will probably do better in the TD department after scoring only six times in 2021. He’ll draw grizzled veteran Janoris Jenkins in Week 1 – probably close to a neutral matchup.
Rondale Moore: Man, is this guy a little stick of dynamite. Some people dismiss him as a gimmick player, but Moore fits Kliff Kingsbury’s horizontal passing game perfectly. Kingsbury will scheme up ways to get Moore the ball quickly, letting him use his 4.37 speed to turn upfield and pick up chunks of yardage. Those types of plays were being drawn up for Larry Fitzgerald last year. Hoo boy. Moore is 5-7, but he’s a weight-room warrior who doesn’t automatically go down on first contact. Watching this guy is going to be fun, and I think he’s immediately flex-worthy in most leagues.
A.J. Brown: There’s little question about Brown’s ability. He had 1,051 yards as a rookie in 2019, then had 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns last year in only 14 games. The questions are about Brown’s knees and what the arrival of Julio Jones will do to Brown’s target total. Brown had offseason “cleanup” surgery on both knees and was bothered by knee issues in training camp, though he’s in no danger of missing Week 1. Jones has been a top receiver for a long time, and while fantasy managers seem to be assuming that Jones will play second fiddle to the young buck … hey, it’s Julio Jones for goodness’ sake. With Malcolm Butler unexpectedly retiring, Brown will probably see a lot of Robert Alford – a matchup Brown should win.
Julio Jones: It will be interesting to see what sort of chemistry this noble old warhorse has with Ryan Tannehill, and how Jones fits into the Tennessee offense generally. Jones has exceeded 150 targets in four different seasons, and he had a 203-target season in 2015. His target ceiling isn’t that high with young stud A.J. Brown around, but Jones won’t be forgotten either. Expect Jones to exploit a mismatch with Arizona CB Marco Wilson in this one.
Tight Ends
Maxx Williams: Tight ends are to the Kliff Kingsbury offense as the appendix is to the human anatomy. Nothing to see here.
Anthony Firkser: As good as the matchups are for A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, it’s hard to see Firkser getting a significant target load in Week 1, but stranger things have happened.
Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chiefs -6
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Browns 23.5, Chiefs 29.5
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: After losing to the Chiefs in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs, the Browns open the 2021 season by facing Kansas City again. Mayfield was 23 of 37 for 204 yards in that playoff game with one touchdown and one interception. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski seems to be transforming Mayfield from a gunslinger into a game manager, and it’s working. Mayfield’s third NFL season looked an awful lot like his impressive rookie season statistically, the biggest difference being a lower interception total. It’s easy to see the reasoning behind the makeover: The Browns have a strong roster with talent everywhere. They don’t need Mayfield to try to win games on his own. Unfortunately, that M.O. lowers Mayfield’s fantasy value because the passing volume just isn’t there.
Patrick Mahomes: He turns 26 next week and is already being talked about as one of the best quarterbacks ever to have played the game. Mahomes will obviously need to add to his body of work to have a compelling case in greatest-of-all-time bar arguments, but he’s well on his way. In last year’s playoff game against the Browns, Mahomes completed 21 of 30 passes for 255 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He also had 14 rushing yards and a touchdown. Cleveland’s pass defense was statistically middle of the pack last year, but with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney bringing heat off the edges, and with Denzel Ward, Troy Hill, Ronnie Harrison and John Johnson III manning the secondary, the Browns could have one of the better pass defenses in the league.
Running Backs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt: Chubb is right up there with Derrick Henry as one of the best pure runners in the league. He averaged a career-best 5.6 yards per carry in 2020 and ran for 12 touchdowns in just 12 games. The Cleveland offensive line should be terrific again. Chubb isn’t used in the passing game very much, but that just means his ceiling is mid-range RB1 rather than top-end RB1. Hunt is the one catching passes here. He quietly racked up 1,145 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns last year and will continue to play on passing downs and mix in as a change-of-pace back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Jerick McKinnon: Edwards-Helaire (ankle) and Williams (concussion) are both expected to play. You may recall that Edwards-Helaire was terrific in Kansas City’s Thursday-night opener last season, rushing for 138 yards and a touchdown against the Texans, but the rest of his season was uneven. There’s still reason to believe that the combination of his versatile skill set and an explosive offense will lead to big numbers. But if CEH is going to make a big leap, the Chiefs will need to give him goal-line carries. Last year they eventually started turning to Williams in those situations. McKinnon should be mentioned here, too. He’s had a star-crossed, injury-plagued career, but if his body holds up, McKinnon has the wiggle to be a useful contributor.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham Jr.: Add a torn ACL to the long list of injuries Beckham has suffered. Can he still be the same explosive receiver who set the league on fire early in his career with the Giants? Beckham had a big game against a woeful Dallas defense in Week 4 of last year – 81 receiving yards and two touchdowns, two carries for 73 yards, and another touchdown – but was pretty ordinary otherwise. The Browns had the fourth run-heaviest offense in the league last year and are built to play that way again. The Beckham who topped 1,300 receiving yards and had double-digit touchdowns in each of his first three seasons is probably gone for good, and we may have to come to grips with the notion that OBJ is just another fantasy WR3.
Jarvis Landry: Landry missed the first game of his seven-year career in Week 17 of 2021, ruled out because of close contact with someone who had COVID-19. “ANNOYED,” Landry tweeted after learning he’d be out. Investors were probably annoyed by Landry’s career-low 101 targets. Landry isn’t a big-play guy and doesn’t score many touchdowns. Bulk volume has given Landry most of his value over the years, and he just doesn’t get it in this offense.
Tyreek Hill: He’s a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Hill scored 17 touchdowns last year in 15 regular-season games. Will Cleveland try to shadow him with terrific young cover man Denzel Ward? That seems like the right move for the Browns – but it still might not slow down the Cheetah.
Mecole Hardman: It was hoped that Hardman would take a step up last year after a promising rookie season in 2019, but it didn’t happen. Enthusiasm for Hardman returned this year in training camp, but we should probably wait for evidence that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is comfortable running out Hardman and Tyreek Hill at the same time and going with a Smurfy WR duo. Hardman is a blazer who’s averaged 16.4 yards per catch over two seasons and has scored 10 touchdowns on only 67 career receptions.
Tight Ends
Austin Hooper: In 2019, Hooper had 75 catches for 787 yards in 13 games. Last year, in his first season with the Browns, Hooper had 46 catches for 435 yards in 13 games. If you also read the entries for Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry above, you might be sensing a theme: Lack of volume is a problem for the Cleveland pass catchers.
Travis Kelce: The man nicknamed “Zeus” has led tight ends in PPR fantasy scoring for five consecutive seasons. If Kyle Pitts does that, we’ll say he had an amazing career, right? Meanwhile, Kelce has a good chance to extend the streak since the Chiefs might not have a suitable No. 2 receiver, thus meaning a high percentage of passes thrown in Kelce’s direction yet again.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Patriots -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Dolphins 20.25, Patriots 23.25
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa: Fun fact: Tua’s full first name is Tuanigamanuolepola. The manufacturers of fantasy draft boards are no doubt glad they don’t have to fit that name onto a sticker. The Dolphins need Tua to step up this year, and they’ve surrounded him with pass-catching weaponry. I always appreciated the bucket accuracy he showed during his time at Alabama, and with free-agent addition Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle, Tua has a pair of burners who can go get those deep rainbow throws. (Fuller is serving a Week 1 suspension, however, and won’t play until Week 2.) DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki are still around as well. The Dolphins could be without starting left tackle, Austin Jackson, who’s on the COVID-19 list. That’s a problem since Jackson probably would have been the one blocking Patriots free-agent addition Matt Judon, a disruptive force. The Patriots are also getting pass rusher Dont’a Hightower back from an opt-out year. Tua had a nondescript performance in his one start against New England last year, completing 20 of 26 throws for 145 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception.
Mac Jones: It seems strange to say that the switch from a quarterback as accomplished as Cam Newton to an unproven rookie bodes well for New England’s other skill players, but that’s the case here. Newton’s passing ability had degenerated to an unacceptable level, so a switch to Jones was bound to be a plus for the Patriots’ receivers and tight ends. It could be even better for the running backs since Cam loved to call his own number near the goal line and accounted for a big percentage of team TD runs. Now, New England’s running backs have a chance to punch in those short-yardage scores. Expect the Dolphins to test Jones with an array of blitzes. Miami can afford to be blitz-happy with CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in coverage.
Running Backs
Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, and Salvon Ahmed: The Dolphins have been throwing some head fakes on us. In an early preseason game, they had Gaskin playing behind Brown. But then Brian Flores just talked about Gaskin having a three-down skill set. As versatile as Gaskin may be, this will probably be more of a group effort than it was in 2020 when Gaskin unexpectedly shouldered a heavy load. Like Gaskin, Brown has the sort of complete skill set that endears him to coaches, and Ahmed acquitted himself well in satellite-back duty last year. Gaskin is the only one playable this week, however.
Damien Harris, James White, and Rhamondre Stevenson: As noted above, the switch from cam Newton to Mac Jones can only mean good things for the New England running backs. There are going to be more goal-line carries available, and James White should see more targets with Jones at QB than he would have with Newton. White’s role as the passing-down back is a given. The wild card here is Stevenson, a 5-11, 231-pound bowling ball who scored five touchdowns in three preseason games. Stevenson has nimble feet for a bigger back, and boy is he tough to tackle. No doubt Harris will lead the Patriots in carries in Week 1, but Stevenson’s role could evolve quickly.
Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle: With Will Fuller suspended this week for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy, Waddle will be the guy running the deeper routes for Miami. Stephon Gilmore is on the PUP list for the Pats, but Waddle is probably going to take a lot of snaps against quality cover man J.C. Jackson.
DeVante Parker: After putting up 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns in a rare fifth-year breakout season, Parker fell back to Earth in 2020, catching 63 passes for 793 yards and four touchdowns. There’s probably not room for Parker to have another 1,200-yard season with all the receiving talent the Fins have added, but he’ll probably factor prominently into the gameplan while Will Fuller serves a Week 1 suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy
Jakobi Meyers: He played sparingly for the Patriots early last season, catching one pass in the team’s first five games. But the New England passing game leaned hard on Meyers from November on. He finished with 59 catches for 729 yards and might have had a shot at a 1,000-yard season if he’d gotten going earlier. Meyers now has 85 career receptions without a touchdown, so regression is bound to do him a solid. Meyers draws the best possible matchup for any New England receiver, squaring off against Justin Coleman.
Nelson Agholor: He had turned into a punchline by the end of his stay in Philadelphia, but Agholor balled out for the Raiders last year and parlayed his 896-yard, eight-TD season into a two-year deal worth up to $22 million. Unfortunately, Agholor faces a nightmarish matchup with human blanket Xavien Howard.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki: This dude isn’t much of a blocker, but his athleticism and hands make him a useful pass-catching weapon, and he had a couple of nice moments in the preseason. The glut of WR talent could mean a target haircut for Gesicki, but Miami is down a receiver this week with Will Fuller serving a suspension.
Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry: Wasn’t it just like the Patriots to announce the signing of Smith on March 15, spiking his perceived fantasy value, only to announce the signing of Henry the very next day? I’m still not entirely sure what to make of this situation. The guess here is that Jonnu is slightly more valuable this season – the Pats signed him first, and Bill Belichick openly raved about him when he was still with the Titans. Henry, by the way, is coming off shoulder surgery but is expected to play in Week 1.
