Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Football Team
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 22.75, Washington 21.75
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: This guy was mighty popular during fantasy draft season. He was taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers in a majority of drafts and would sometimes come off the board ahead of Russell Wilson. The excitement is understandable. Herbert has a big arm and runs a little bit, and he showed veteran poise last year. Expectations were low going into his rookie season, and he cleared them like Dick Fosbury sailing over a 3-foot-high bar. But this is a brutal matchup for Herbert. Washington ranked near the top of the league in opponent passing yardage (2nd), yards per attempt (2nd) completion percentage (3rd), passer rating (3rd), and touchdown passes (T-2nd). Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Co. can really get after opposing quarterbacks. Plus, Herbert will be trying to process new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense for the first time under live fire (joint training camp practices notwithstanding). Herbert is a full fade for me this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick: The possibilities here are endless. A 400-yard, five-TD game in his Washington debut? Sure, it could happen. A four-interception debacle? Yep, that’s in play, too. What’s nice about this matchup is that the Chargers have had trouble putting heat on opposing quarterbacks. No one other than Joey Bosa had more than 4.5 sacks last year. If Fitz has time to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to shake loose deep downfield, look out.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and Larry Rountree: One of the better dual run-catch threats in the league, Ekeler is sure to figure prominently into the Chargers’ game plan. He’s not going to rack up huge carry totals, but 25.5% of the Chargers’ targets were directed at running backs last year (the fifth-highest percentage in the league), and Ekeler dominates team RB targets. Washington has linebackers who can cover, but Ekeler is a tough matchup. The rest of the Chargers’ backfield is messy, with Jackson, Kelley, and Rountree all vying for carries. Jackson seemed to hold the No. 2 RB job as training camp broke, but his grasp on that job might be tenuous.
Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic: After logging 33 carries during his two college seasons at Memphis, Gibson ran 170 times for 795 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie and looked phenomenal doing it. He’s as big and as fast as Jonathan Taylor, and the Washington Football Team has yet to fully tap the pass-catching potential of this converted college receiver. Gibson has a three-down profile, but for now it’s McKissic taking most of the passing-down snaps. That should eventually change, moving Gibson from low-end RB1 value to high-end RB1 value. Two reasons McKissic might not be very useful for fantasy purposes this year: (1) Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to throw passes so dangerous they’d make Evel Knievel nervous, and we’re supposed to think his third-down outlet back is going to have fantasy value? (2) Washington has a terrific defense and an offense that can hang with opponents, so it seems unlikely the WFT is going to have the sort of consistently negative game scripts in which a third-down specialist like McKissic can thrive.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen: He’s topped 100 receptions in three of the last four seasons, and when he missed in 2018, it was only just barely (97). A matchup against so-so slot cornerback Darryl Roberts, misleadingly nicknamed “Swagg,” bodes well for Allen.
Mike Williams: Predictions of a breakout season for Williams abound. He’s had a 1,000-yard season and a 10-TD season but hasn’t put it all together just yet. Injuries have been an impediment, and he missed time in training camp with a hip flexor injury, though he now seems good to go. There’s a belief that as the X receiver in new offensive coordinators Joe Lombardi’s scheme, Williams will be put in position to succeed. The 6-4, 220-pound Williams is certainly a physical mismatch for most cornerbacks he faces, and this week he’s likely to see a lot of William Jackson III, who’s 6-0, 196 pounds, but a solid cover man.
Terry McLaurin: When Ryan Fitzpatrick signed with Washington in the offseason, the big takeaway in the fantasy world was that it would be great for McLaurin because Fitz has no compunction about aggressively throwing downfield and letting his receivers make plays on the ball. We’re about to find out just how good Fitzpatrick can be for Scary Terry.
Dyami Brown: Curtis Samuel sustained a groin injury in a June minicamp that kept him out of his first training camp with his new team. He tried to return this week but aggravated the injury. With Samuel likely to be on the shelf for quite a while, Brown becomes an intriguing asset. He was a dangerous vertical threat at North Carolina, and a pairing with aggressive downfield thrower Ryan Fitzpatrick could be wine-and-cheese perfection.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook: Now 34 and playing for his fifth NFL team, Cook has aged reasonably well. He’s averaged 701.7 yards and 7.3 touchdowns over the last three years, though a dip to 504 yards last year seems to have fantasy managers believing that his next step will be downward. Possibly adding to that perception: The last time we saw Cook he coughed up a sloppy fumble that cost the Saints dearly in a playoff loss to the Buccaneers. Given the small number of consistently productive tight ends, Cook might be playable most weeks if Father Time hasn’t caught up to him.
Logan Thomas: He’s unlikely to repeat a 110-target season, but the late-blooming Thomas is still a must-start at a thin position. He had a 24-yard catch and a 28-yard catch in his limited preseason action, and he looked like a difference-maker. His 6-6 frame makes him an inviting target, and Thomas has the speed to blow past unsuspecting linebackers.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Steelers 21, Bills 27.5
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger: When Roethlisberger faced the Bills last December, he completed 21 of 37 passes for 187 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Big Ben’s offensive line is going to be a problem this year. Roethlisberger doesn’t stand in the pocket scanning the field like he used to, but who can blame him? He’s taken a beating over the years. Roethlisberger’s average depth of target last year was just 6.9 yards last year, and his sack percentage was a career-low 2.1% even though the Steelers’ offensive line was awful. In other words, Roethlisberger is making some, uh, “business decisions” and has become a check-down king. This is a tough road matchup against a good defense. Don’t start Roethlisberger this week if you don’t have to.
Josh Allen: Remember when people used to make fun of how scatter-armed Allen was? Yeah, me neither. These days there’s nothing but praise for the 25-year-old playmaker, now widely regarded as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. But this is still a difficult matchup for Allen. The Steelers allowed a league-low 56.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks last year and also had the lowest opponent passer rating in the league. Allen has faced the Steelers in each of the last two years, completing 37 of 68 passes for 377 yards in those two games, with three touchdowns and two interceptions. (His rushing numbers in those two games: 13 carries, 56 yards, one touchdown.) You’re using him this week, of course, but it might not be a typically bountiful day for Allen.
Running Backs
Najee Harris: The Steelers were locked onto Harris in this year’s draft and clearly have a big role in mind for him. The 6-2, 230-pound Harris is built to handle a heavy load, and an effective running game would make life easier for Pittsburgh’s 39-year-old quarterback. But the Steelers’ offensive line is in a state of decay, which will make it hard for Harris to be an efficient runner. Most fantasy owners would eagerly trade some efficiency for volume, but the people who invested in Harris don’t want to see a bunch of 22-64-0 rushing lines for him. The Bills are a little easier to run on than throw on, so bet the over on 20 carries for Harris.
Zack Moss and Devin Singletary: It’s bad enough that Moss and Singletary split work, but then add the fact that QB Josh Allen runs in a lot of touchdowns on his own. This situation could get even messier if the Bills start giving snaps to Matt Breida, making it a three-headed affair. The Steelers are sturdy against the run, so starting either Moss or Singletary this week isn’t a winning proposition.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: Pittsburgh’s high-volume receiver saw double-digit targets in 10 of his 15 games last year. Johnson is a stud, but will he match last year’s 144 targets if Chase Claypool takes a big step forward in 2021? If Claypool turns out to be another D.K. Metcalf, we might wonder why we were drafting Pittsburgh’s version of Tyler Lockett ahead of the Steel City version of Metcalf. That’s not to disparage Johnson. He’s a terrific young receiver, and his matchup against the Bills’ Levi Wallace is a good one.
Chase Claypool: It looks like Claypool draws the short end of the matchup stick in Week 1, having to face Tre’Davious White, one of the top cover men in the league. In Pittsburgh’s game against Buffalo last December, Claypool was held to three catches for 15 yards. Claypool has a rare combination of size and speed, but this is undeniably a bad spot for him.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: In Pittsburgh’s game against the Bills last December, Smith-Schuster had six catches for 55 yards and a touchdown, and Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool weren’t big factors. JuJu is Ben Roethlisberger’s designated short-area receiver, and if the Bills are putting heat on Big Ben, JuJu will be busy. In 2019, Smith-Schuster’s average depth of target was 9.7 yards. Last year it was just 5.5 yards.
Stefon Diggs: After leading the NFL in catches and receiving yardage in 2021, Diggs is back for more. His individual matchup with Joe Haden isn’t easy, but if Diggs isn’t matchup-proof, he’s matchup-resistant at the very least. In Buffalo’s 26-15 win over Pittsburgh last December, Diggs caught 10 of 14 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown.
Emmanuel Sanders: For his debut with the Bills, Sanders will be facing the team he broke into the league with. That’s pretty cool. Sanders, 34, has aged well and now gets to play in a prolific passing attack. But Stefon Diggs sucks up an awful lot of the oxygen in the Buffalo passing game, and Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are in the picture, too. It might be hard to start Sanders with much confidence.
Cole Beasley: He’s coming off a career-best 82-catch, 967-yard season, but the newly arrived Emmanuel Sanders might chip into his target total. Fantasy drafters know the score and weren’t eager to pursue the Beez this summer despite his banner 2020 season.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth: Some people touted Ebron as a sneaky tight end play this year, but Freiermuth, a classic two-way tight end, could force his way into major snaps. The rookie from Penn State isn’t a fantasy consideration just yet but probably will be before long.
Dawson Knox: He’s big (6-4, 254), athletic, and plays in an explosive offense, but competition for targets is fierce in Buffalo. Knox will show up with big catches from time to time, but he probably won’t produce consistently enough for you to consider starting him.
San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: 49ers -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: 49ers 26.5, Lions 19
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo: The Lions gave up 38 TD passes last season and allowed 8.5 yards per opponent pass attempt – both league highs. So there’s probably someone, somewhere, starting Garoppolo in a superflex league this week. Hey, I have him ranked QB25. Handsome Jimmy isn’t a terrible passer, he has a terrific trio of pass-catchers, and the matchup is primo. The drawbacks are that Garoppolo doesn’t run, and the 49ers could be run-heavy if the game script turns out to be as favorable as anticipated.
Jared Goff: Napoleon was exiled to Elba; Goff was exiled to Detroit. Napoleon probably had better receivers on Elba than Goff will have in Detroit. The former No. 1 draft pick may or may not be terrible with his new team, but this is an undeniably bad spot for Goff, facing a 49ers defense that ranked in the top 10 in virtually every category of pass defense last year.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon: It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. This could be an effective thunder-and-lightning duo if 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan elects to mix and match them all season, but maybe it will be more of an either/or proposition. Perhaps we should expect to see some veteran deference to the speedy Mostert early on. But it’s Sermon’s one-cut style that has me excited. He seems like such a perfect fit for the Shanahan zone running scheme. Sermon can make sharp cuts without losing speed, and that virtue could be golden in this system. There should be plenty of carries to go around this week against a bad Lions defense. Detroit gave up a league-high 27 TD runs last season
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams: Swift is expected to play through a groin injury, but Williams may see extra work as a result. The Lions had a messy backfield at the beginning of Smith’s rookie year, but by midseason, he was playing more than half of Detroit’s offensive snaps and dominating high-value touches – receptions and red-zone carries. But Williams is a terrific jack-of-all-trades. He can run inside or outside, catch passes, and block. It would be nice to see Swift have something close to a workhorse role, but that’s probably not how this is going to turn out. No team allowed fewer rushing yards than the 49ers last year, so this isn’t a very appealing matchup for the Detroit backs.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk: He’s been dealing with a hamstring issue, but Aiyuk returned to practice Wednesday and should be good to go. Aiyuk’s individual matchup against Amani Oruwariye is promising, but the hamstring injury and the probability of a run-heavy game script for the 49ers are concerns.
Deebo Samuel: There weren’t many games last season where Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle were all healthy at the same time, so the 49ers’ distribution of targets will be interesting. Samuel’s average depth of target last year was just 2.2 yards, and that sort of schemed-up usage may or may not give him some built-in target security. You’d have to think the Niners will be trying to take advantage of Samuel’s matchup against undrafted rookie free agent A.J. Parker.
Tyrell Williams: The Lions’ top receiver by default, Williams had a 1,000-yard season for the Chargers in 2016 but has finished with under 750 yards every year since. He’s more of a nine-route guy than a true lead receiver, so it will be a surprise if he leads the Lions in catches but less of a surprise if he leads them in receiving yardage. Williams is probably going to be up against Jason Verrett for much of this game – a tough matchup.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: It’s not clear how WR snaps are going to shake out in Detroit once you get past Tyrell Williams on the depth chart. St. Brown and Quintez Cephus will probably get a fair number of snaps, and Khalif Raymond is currently starting, which is … puzzling. It’s a situation best avoided for now unless you’re in a big enough league where there’s incentive to speculate on the No. 2 and No. 3 receivers for the Lions
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Other than Derrick Henry, there may not be another player in the league tougher to tackle than George Kittle. That’s one of the reasons Kittle has averaged 10.0 yards per target over the last three seasons – a remarkable figure that shows what a special weapon he is. Kittle only played eight games in 2020 and has missed 10 games over the last two seasons, but when he’s on the field, he’s going to produce.
T.J. Hockenson: With Detroit having so little firepower at receiver, Hockenson is the odds-on favorite to lead the Lions in targets. He finished TE4 last year, and it still seems like Hockenson has ample room for growth. His matchup against LB Dre Greenlaw this week is a tough one, but Hockenson is one of a handful of truly productive tight ends in the league. If you drafted him, you’re using him.
Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Vikings -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Vikings 25.5, Bengals 22.5
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: Other than being a little … um, let’s call it “un-clutch,” Cousins is a perfectly serviceable starting NFL quarterback. Matchups often determine his fantasy viability in any given week, and the matchup here is a peach. The Bengals recorded a league-low 17 sacks last year and probably won’t be much better in that area in 2021. The Bengals’ best cornerback, ex-Viking Trae Waynes, has been ruled out. Cousins gets the green light this week.
Joe Burrow: The first overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft makes his return from a torn ACL. Burrow ranked QB18 in fantasy points per game through the first 10 weeks of the season, then got hurt in Week 11. There are positives and negatives here for fantasy managers to consider. Positive: The Bengals spent the fifth overall pick of the draft on Ja’Marr Chase. Negative: They did little to bolster the leaky offensive line that let Burrow get battered last season. Positive: Bengals coach Zack Taylor is an aggressive play-caller who dials up a lot of passes. Negative: Burrow admitted in training camp that he wasn’t entirely confident about the condition of his surgically repaired knee. This will be an interesting test. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer returns to Cincinnati for the first time since he was a Bengals defensive coordinator, and after being shredded by injuries last year, the Minnesota defense is close to full strength again.
Running Backs
Dalvin Cook: What a season Cook turned in last year. He finished RB3 in half-point PPR scoring, but his 22.6 fantasy points per game led all running backs who played at least 10 games. Cook averaged 111,2 rushing yards per game and still managed to tack on some pass-catching value with 44 grabs for 361 yards and a TD. Only the Texans, Cowboys, and Jaguars yielded more rushing yardage than the Bengals last year, and Cincinnati’s opponents averaged 5.1 yards per carry.
Joe Mixon: The touting of Mixon as a potential league-winner has become an annual rite of summer. He’s big and athletic, he catches passes, he has a three-down role, and he plays in a pretty good offense. Mixon also has a couple of 1,100-yard rushing seasons on his résumé. The Cincinnati offensive line isn’t great, but that’s one of the few reasons not to like Mixon’s chances for success in 2021.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: What can Jefferson do for an encore after catching 88 passes for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns last year? Not only is he wildly talented, but the Vikings have perhaps the skinniest pass-catching tree in the league. It’s basically just Jefferson and Adam Thielen. The Vikings don’t have a credible third receiver, and they’re not especially good at tight end now that Irv Smith is out for the season. Jefferson also draws a pretty good matchup against Chidobe Awuzie.
Adam Thielen: As noted above, Thielen and Justin Jefferson are going to account for a huge percentage of Minnesota’s targets this year. Thielen’s target trend had been on a downward trajectory. After averaging 9.2 targets per game over the 2017-2018 seasons, he averaged just 6.2 targets over the 2019-2020 seasons (though injuries may have at least partly accounted for the drop-off). Still, it’s hard to see Thielen not being targeted heavily this season when the Vikings have so few other credible pass catchers. Don’t be surprised if Thielen takes a big bite out of Bengals CB Eli Apple this week.
Tee Higgins: This second-round pick was a pleasant rookie surprise in almost every way, but the Bengals had one small complaint: Higgins wasn’t in top condition. They told him so, and Higgins worked out like a maniac in the offseason, returning to the team this summer in top shape. Higgins reportedly had a great camp and seems poised to be the Bengals’ lead receiver, since rookie Ja’Marr Chase hasn’t been sharp yet.
Ja’Marr Chase: The No. 5 overall pick in this year’s draft hasn’t lived up to his billing in training camp or the preseason. Maybe we should give him a mulligan since he opted out of the 2020 college season and hasn’t played competitive football in more than a year and a half. He’ll be a tough call for a lot of fantasy managers this week. Chase is likely to get some face time with veteran Vikings CB Patrick Peterson, which makes for an interesting contrast of youth and experience. I have Chase ranked WR38, and I’ve already had one reader tell me that’s too high.
Tyler Boyd: This reliable slot man might have notched a third consecutive 1,000-yard season if not for a concussion early in Week 15 that effectively ended his season. Before the concussion, Boyd had seen at least eight targets in 8 of 13 games. I like his matchup against Mackensie Alexander.
Tight Ends
Tyler Conklin and Chris Herndon: Don’t expect the recently acquired Herndon to contribute right away. Conklin is interesting – not so much because of his body of work in college and the NFL, but because the Vikings have such little depth at receiver beyond Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen that it’s almost imperative for them to involve the tight ends in the offense. Still, it’s probably a little too early to give Conklin lineup consideration.
C.J. Uzomah: Expect the Bengals to rank near the bottom of the league in TE target percentage. Uzomah is unplayable.
This season, the Primer is presented by Pristine Auction. They are going to be providing giveaways throughout the season. See below for how to win a signed Lamar Jackson jersey!
