NFL DFS GPP Lineup Advice: Week 1 (Main Slate)

Greetings, friends, and welcome to Week 1 of our Main Slate GPP Advice series. I love GPP contests, and I’m thrilled to be writing this series this season. For those who don’t know, GPP stands for “Guaranteed Prize Pool” and is a tournament-style DFS contest with high payouts. Higher payouts mean longer odds, and that’s why we’re going to talk strategy, value, and risk every week in this space.

GPP means we are going to look for value and take big swings. You shouldn’t have every player below in your DFS lineups. These are players with upside to target so that you can save money to use on higher-priced studs. We are going to identify value. We are going to monitor injury situations. We are going to take some risks. And most importantly, we are going to make some money.

As a general reminder, these are how most FanDuel and DraftKings contests are formatted:

• FanDuel $60,000 salary cap, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF ($6,667 average price per position)
• DraftKings: $50,000 salary cap, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF ($5,555 average price per position)

Have questions or just want to talk football or DFS? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

Create Optimal lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool

The players below are ones I’m looking at for large-field tournament considerations for Week 1 main slates:

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Jalen Hurts (PHI): $6,400, vs. ATL
Jalen Hurts is the ninth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings but is projected to score the sixth-most points. For comparison, Justin Herbert is $6,700, and Ryan Tannehill is $6,500. We don’t yet fully know what the Philadelphia offense is going to look like under new head coach Nick Sirianni, but we do know one thing: Hurts has a high floor and a high ceiling as a fantasy quarterback because of his running ability. He is projected to score more than 20 points in this one, and that is a conservative estimate. If you aren’t going to pay up for Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, take a gamble on a quarterback like Hurts and use the savings on a premium running back or wide receiver.

Mac Jones (NE): $4,400 vs. MIA
Look at that price! Yes, this is a big swing. And yes, it’s a risk. But Week 1 is the perfect time to take a gamble like this. Maybe Mac Jones will come out and completely flop. The Dolphins do project to have a good defense, after all. But $4,400 is unheard of for a starting quarterback with some upside. Jones is the 36th most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. That means there are several BACKUPS ahead of him. At this price, you can essentially fill the rest of your lineup with studs. At $4,400, I am more than willing to take the big swing on Jones. You may not see a price this low for Jones again.

Other notables: Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS): $5,500 vs. LAC, Jameis Winston (NO): $5,200 vs. GB

FanDuel

Trevor Lawrence (JAC): $6,800 vs. HOU
Look, the Jaguars are a mystery right now. It’s possible Urban Meyer completely flames out at the NFL level. But at $6,800, Trevor Lawrence is the 18th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel but is projected to be Top 10 in terms of projected points. A top-tier quarterback like Patrick Mahomes is $2,000 more expensive. The Texans are going to be all-caps BAD this season. And even though the Jaguars may not end up being all that good either, Lawrence is a top quarterback prospect who is also mobile. There is uncertainty here. That is why the price is what it is. But that is also why I like this gamble. Lawrence’s $356 cost-per-point number is the fifth-best value based on our projections, and that means this is a good value play in GPP contests.

Sam Darnold (CAR): $6,500 vs. NYJ
The Sam Darnold revenge game? Not quite, but this is a good price for a quarterback in a new (and presumably much better) offense. At $6,500, Darnold is the 29th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel but is expected to score the 16th most points. That +14 ranking between points and price is second only to Mac Jones among starting quarterbacks, which is exactly why he is our big swing GPP pick here.

Other notables: Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS): $6,600 vs. LAC, Jameis Winston (NO): $6,700 vs. GB

Running Backs

DraftKings

Antonio Gibson (TEAM): $5,900 vs. LAC
Maybe it’s just me, but Antonio Gibson at $5,900 on DraftKings feels like a mistake. That puts him as the 18th most expensive running back on DraftKings, behind running backs like Myles Gaskin, James Robinson, Miles Sanders, and D’Andre Swift. His project points, however, are higher than all of those running backs. Gibson is projected to be an RB1 as the 10th overall running back in Week 1, but he is cheaper than some RB2s on DK. Easy decision.

Aaron Jones (GB): $6,800 vs. NO
Aaron Jones probably isn’t going to be a running back that we often feature in this space. Not because we don’t like Jones as a running back, but because it seems unlikely that he is going to be the 10th most expensive running back most weeks. Jones is projected to be a Top 5 RB in Week 1 against the Saints, but his price is significantly lower than the backs above him. Jones is projected to score the fifth-most points among running backs in Week 1. Number four? Derrick Henry, who is $2,000 more expensive at $8,800. Christian McCaffrey? $9,500. Alvin Kamara? $8,600. Dalvin Cook? $9,100. Even Jonathan Taylor, who is projected to score fewer points than Henry, costs $8,000. At $6,800, you can probably afford Jones and another top running back without sacrificing the rest of your lineup.

Other notables: Joe Mixon (CIN): $6,200 vs. MIN, Chase Edmonds (ARI): $4,600 vs. TEN

FanDuel

James Robinson (JAC): $5,900 vs. HOU
Noticing a theme here? James Robinson projects as an RB1 in Week 1 on FanDuel but is priced as a low-end RB2 (22nd). That +11 points vs. price differential is easily the highest among RB1s and RB2s on FanDuel. Similar to what we said about Trevor Lawrence above, we don’t really know what to expect from the Jaguars this season. But with Travis Etienne out, Robinson is the clear starter in Jacksonville. And at $5,900 against what should be a bad Texans team in Week 1 is a great value.

Mike Davis (ATL): $6,200 vs. PHI
Unlike some of the other names here, Mike Davis is priced somewhat appropriately compared to his projected value. But there are enough unknowns here to make this an intriguing matchup. New Falcons head coach Arthur Smith leaned on running back Derrick Henry in Tennessee, while the Eagles defense struggled to stop the run in the preseason. Now, preseason doesn’t mean anything, but this is not the Jim Schwartz defense of old that stuffed the run but struggled to contain the big plays in the passing game. It may take this Philadelphia defense time to gel under new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, and Davis is the clear starter in Atlanta. All of the variables point to this being a positive matchup for Davis, and he is priced low enough to fill out some high-ceiling GPP lineups.

Other notables: Chase Edmond (ARI): $5,900

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Terry McLaurin (WAS): $6,400 vs. LAC
Terry McLaurin is the 14th most expensive wide receiver in Week 1 but possesses clear WR1 upside, especially if he connects on any big plays with new Washington quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. Among wide receivers projected to score in the Top 15 on DraftKings in Week 1, only one is cheaper than McLaurin (hint: more on that player below). With a $379 CPP, McLaurin has one of the lowest numbers among fantasy-relevant wide receivers. Many of the other wide receivers with numbers lower than McLaurin are second, third, or even reserve options for their teams. McLaurin’s is a clear No. 1 WR, and $6,400 is a great price on DK for him in Week 1.

D.J. Moore (CAR): $6,100 vs. NYJ
D.J. Moore has a new quarterback in Sam Darnold (more on him above) and one fewer mouth to feed in the Carolina passing game now that Curtis Samuel has moved on. Will that result in more production for the young wide receiver? I’m banking on Moore’s role to evolve in 2021 after a somewhat boom-or-bust 2020 that saw him catch 66 of his 118 targets for 1,193 yards and four touchdowns. On the one hand, has there ever been a quieter borderline 1,200-yard season? On the other, how does a starting wide receiver only catch approximately 50% of his 118 targets while only scoring four touchdowns? There could be some “positive regression” in store for Moore, and we could see it as early as Week 1 against the Jets.

Other notables: Tee Higgins (CIN): $4,700 vs. MIN, Jaylen Waddle (MIA): $3,600 vs NE

FanDuel

Terry McLaurin (WAS): $6,900 vs. LAC
See above. McLaurin projects to be a Top 10 wide receiver on FanDuel and is affordable at $6,900, which is right around the average on FD.

DeVonta Smith (PHI): $5,300 vs. ATL
This might be my favorite pick of the week. Smith projects as a back-end WR2 but is priced outside of the Top 50 wide receivers. Outside of the Top 50! Smith is another relative unknown in that he is a rookie and is playing for a first-time head coach, but he’s also the clear WR1 in Philadelphia and could see a high volume/target share. At $5,300, he is essentially free on FanDuel and is a perfect GPP gamble.

Other notables: Tee Higgins (CIN): $6,000 vs. MIN, Jerry Jeudy (DEN): $5,500 vs. NYG

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Kyle Pitts (ATL): $4,400 vs. PHI
This was one of the easiest picks of the week. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts vs. an Eagles team that doesn’t value the linebacker position. Oh, and he is projected as the No. 3 TE while being priced as the No. 8 TE by DraftKings. This is a value play and an upside play because there is a real chance that Pitts is a star and that the Eagles don’t have an answer for him. Pitts is projected to score the third-most TE points but is nearly $4,400 points cheaper than Travis Kelce, the consensus TE1 based on projections and price.

Other notables: Gerald Everett (SEA): $3,400 vs. IND

FanDuel

Gerald Everett (SEA): $4,800 vs. IND
Everett is projected as a low-end TE1 on FanDuel but priced as a low-end TE2. And the bonus here is that he is a tight end in a new system, which drives down the price a little bit because of the unknown. Everett is the clear starter in Seattle, and his $4,800 price tag puts him in the same category as many back-ups or rotational tight ends.

Other notables: Austin Hooper (CLE): $5,100 vs. KC

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Bills DST: $2,500 vs. PIT
The Bills as a borderline Top 5 projected defense to go with a No. 16 price ranking on DraftKings is too good to pass up. This is likely to be more of a cash contest defense for the rest of the season, but they are being priced as a GPP option this week.

Other notables: Colts DST: $2,300

FanDuel

Broncos DST: $4,100 vs. NYG
The Broncos project as the second-best defense on all of FanDuel in Week 1, but they are priced as hate DST8. Daniel Jones doesn’t scare me, shouldn’t scare you, and likely doesn’t scare the Broncos. This game only has a 41.5 over/under, so it looks like even Vegas is banking on a low-scoring game in Week 1.

Other notables: Washington Football Team DST: $4,200

Want to keep the conversation going or just have a question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.

Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.