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Fantasy Football Strategy: The Swift Formula (2021)

Fantasy Football Strategy: The Swift Formula (2021)

A couple of years ago, I was on a mission to identify potential breakout running backs. After considerable research, I created a list of criteria to find underrated players with RB1 fantasy upside each season. I publicly published this formula for the first time in 2019 under the name “The Mixon Formula,” and many of the players who made the list ended up having a successful 2019 season. I dropped the same formula in 2020, and while it wasn’t quite as helpful due to so many players who met the criteria going in the first couple of rounds anyway, I still found some good values. With Joe Mixon no longer meeting the criteria of the list, I’ve decided to rebrand it and change the name to “The Swift Formula.” Without any further ado, let’s dive in and look at the criteria and the candidates for 2021.

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Criteria For “The Swift Formula”

  • The running back must have had 30 or more receptions last year.
  • The running back must be 26 or younger by the start of the upcoming fantasy year.
  • The running back must have had 65 or more rushing attempts last year.
  • The running back must have had over 200 rushing yards last year.
  • The running back has played three seasons or fewer prior to the start of the upcoming fantasy year.
  • The running back can’t be on a team that drafted another running back in the first round of the most recent NFL draft.
  • The running back must have only played for one NFL team.
  • The running back averaged at least 5.5 yards per reception last year.
  • The running back averaged more than 3 yards per carry last year.

Reasoning Behind Criteria

The running back must have had 30 or more receptions last year.
The NFL has evolved into a more pass-heavy game. That requires top running backs to contribute in the passing game. I’ve set 30 receptions as the baseline because it means that the featured running back averaged at least two receptions (or more) a game. Note: With the NFL schedule shifting to 17 games (instead of 16) in 2021, this baseline will be 32 next year.

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