Each week, fantasy football analysts spend countless hours tweaking their rankings and diving into data, seeking to give the best advice they can. You hear it on podcasts, you see it on Twitter, and you watch in during weekly livestreams.

But sometimes, it’s nice to have everything rolled into one tidy package. And so, beginning this year, each week, I’ll be publishing my ultimate guide to your weekly fantasy football matchups. And with the biggest fantasy football draft weekend ahead of us, we might as well get started a little early.

You’ve heard me talk about my feelings on nearly every football player this draft season. But, here is my ultimate guide to your fantasy football draft.

I will note at the outset that, as I have explained often, my projections do not always exactly match my rankings (i.e., a player may be projected for slightly more fantasy points than a player he ranks behind). I try to be true to our readers and listeners as a ranker; if I wouldn’t make a certain decision, I can’t recommend that you do, regardless of the exact projections.

Note: My weekly guide will be more matchup-focused and discuss matchups to avoid, matchups to target, and DFS strategies.

Get a FREE 6-month upgrade with our special offer

Quarterbacks

My Top 12 Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes (KC) Projection: 426-for-638 passing, 5,140 yards, 39 passing touchdowns, 9 interceptions; 67-344-3 rushing.

2. Josh Allen (BUF) Projection: 410-for-613 passing, 4,661 yards, 32 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 108-516-8 rushing.

3. Kyler Murray (ARI) Projection: 388-for-590 passing, 4,155 yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 121-690-8 rushing.

4. Lamar Jackson (BAL) Projection: 301-for-465 passing, 3,505 yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 154-948-7 rushing.

5. Dak Prescott (DAL) Projection: 407-for-620 passing, 5,030 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 66-325-4 rushing.

6. Aaron Rodgers (GB) Projection: 397-for-589 passing, 4,611 yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions; 41-148-3 rushing.

7. Justin Herbert (LAC) Projection: 402-for-613 passing, 4,523 yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 55-252-4 rushing.

8. Russell Wilson (SEA) Projection: 373-for-560 passing, 4,341 yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 81-451-3 rushing.

9. Jalen Hurts (PHI) Projection:  341-for-560 passing, 3,977 yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 137-672-6 rushing.

10. Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Projection: 339-for-514 passing, 4,225 yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 43-255-5 rushing.

11. Tom Brady (TB) Projection: 419-for-638 passing, 4,897 yards, 37 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 21-23-2 rushing.

12. Matthew Stafford (LAR)  Projection: 413-for-621 passing, 4,799 yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 39-140-1 rushing.

Stats to Know

• Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts that traveled at least 20 yards in the air last year. He did so 17% more than the next quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.
• Jalen Hurts averaged 79 rushing yards per game in his three full starts last year, which was a 16-game pace of 1,264 yards (which would have been the most ever by a quarterback).

__________

Running Backs

My Top 24 Running Backs

1. Christian McCaffrey (CAR) Projection: 272 rushing attempts, 1,137 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns; 84-666-3 receiving.

2. Dalvin Cook (MIN) Projection: 279 rushing attempts, 1,261 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns; 54 443 2 receiving.

3. Derrick Henry (TEN) Projection: 326 rushing attempts, 1,593 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns; 26-181-1 receiving.

4. Alvin Kamara (NO) Projection: 183 rushing attempts, 863 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 73-593-3 receiving.

5. Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) Projection: 260 rushing attempts, 1,068 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns; 55-422-2 receiving.

6. Aaron Jones (GB) Projection: 210 rushing attempts, 991 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns; 57-449-3 receiving.

7. Austin Ekeler (LAC) Projection: 176 rushing attempts, 818 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns; 76-583-3 receiving.

8. Nick Chubb (CLE) Projection: 240 rushing attempts, 1,223 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns; 28-239-1 receiving.

9. Saquon Barkley (NYG) Projection: 251 rushing attempts, 1,012 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 56-421-2 receiving.

10. Jonathan Taylor (IND) Projection: 266 rushing attempts, 1,125 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns; 36-247-1 receiving.

11. Antonio Gibson (WAS) Projection: 215 rushing attempts, 962 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns; 44-331-1 receiving.

12. Najee Harris (PIT) Projection: 245 rushing attempts, 1,041 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 47-354-2 receiving.

13. Joe Mixon (CIN) Projection: 253 rushing attempts, 1,033 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 49-344-2 receiving.

14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) Projection: 201 rushing attempts, 896 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 48-406-2 receiving.

15. Chris Carson (SEA) Projection: 209 rushing attempts, 949 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 42-318-2 receiving.

16. David Montgomery (CHI) Projection: 224 rushing attempts, 937 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 35-300-1 receiving.

17. James Robinson (JAC) Projection: 201 rushing attempts, 877 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 52-380-1 receiving.

18. Gus Edwards (BAL) Projection: 193 rushing attempts, 997 rushing yards, 9 touchdowns; 22-154-1 receiving.

19. Mike Davis (ATL) Projection: 233 rushing attempts, 909 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 42-282-1 receiving.

20. D’Andre Swift (DET) Projection: 187 rushing attempts, 825 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 57-413-2 receiving.

21. Darrell Henderson (LAR) Projection: 178 rushing attempts, 822 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 33-329-2 receiving.

22. Josh Jacobs (LV) Projection: 244 rushing attempts, 1,001 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns; 28-202-1 receiving.

23. Damien Harris (NE)  Projection: 180 rushing attempts, 841 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns; 20-129-1 receiving.

24. Miles Sanders (PHI) Projection: 203 rushing attempts, 915 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns; 40-323-1 receiving.

Stats to Know

• Cam Newton has 19 carries inside the 5-yard line last year, scoring nine touchdowns. Patriots runnings backs combined for just seven carries for four touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. Sony Michel is no longer taking away any workload from Damien Harris.
• Joe Mixon has averaged 19 PPR points per game when Gio Bernard has been out of the lineup.
• A.J. Dillon caught only 21 passes in college and had just two targets last year. In case you were wondering about what happens to Aaron Jones’s receiving work with Jamaal Williams gone.

__________

Wide Receivers

My Top 24 Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams (GB) Projection: 120 receptions, 1,413 yards, 12 touchdowns.

2. Tyreek Hill (KC) Projection: 93 receptions, 1,384 yards, 12 touchdowns; 12-84-1 rushing.

3. Calvin Ridley (ATL) Projection: 101 receptions, 1,499 yards, 9 touchdowns; 3-17 rushing.

4. Stefon Diggs (BUF) Projection: 109 receptions, 1,389 yards, 9 touchdowns.

5. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) Projection: 114 receptions, 1,391 yards, 8 touchdowns.

6. Justin Jefferson (MIN) Projection: 89 receptions, 1,356 yards, 7 touchdowns; 2-11 rushing.

7. D.K. Metcalf (SEA)  Projection: 84 receptions, 1,377 yards, 10 touchdowns.

8. A.J. Brown (TEN) Projection: 84 receptions, 1,227 yards, 9 touchdowns.

9. Keenan Allen (LAC) Projection: 104 receptions, 1,077 yards, 7 touchdowns; 2-6 rushing.

10. Terry McLaurin (WAS) Projection: 93 receptions, 1,266 yards, 6 touchdowns; 3-20 rushing.

11. Allen Robinson (CHI) Projection: 93 receptions, 1,176 yards, 6 touchdowns.

12. CeeDee Lamb (DAL) Projection: 79 receptions, 1,067 yards, 6 touchdowns; 10-81 rushing.

13. Amari Cooper (DAL) Projection: 93 receptions, 1,145 yards, 6 touchdowns; 5-21 rushing.

14. Robert Woods (LAR) Projection: 94 receptions, 1,077 yards, 6 touchdowns; 15-89-1 rushing.

15. Diontae Johnson (PIT) Projection: 92 receptions, 963 yards, 6 touchowns; 4-21 rushing.

16. Chris Godwin (TB) Projection: 83 receptions, 1,078 yards, 7 touchdowns.

17. Julio Jones (TEN) Projection: 76 receptions 1,074 yards, 6 touchdowns.

18. D.J. Moore (CAR) Projection: 78 receptions, 1,202 yards, 6 touchdowns; 3-24 rushing.

19. Mike Evans (TB) Projection: 75 receptions, 1,120 yards, 8 touchdowns.

20. Tyler Lockett (SEA) Projection: 89 receptions, 1,041 yards, 7 touchdowns; 2-11 rushing.

21. Tee Higgins (CIN) Projection: 81 receptions, 1,056 yards, 6 touchdowns; 3-14 rushing.

22. Cooper Kupp (LAR) Projection: 87 receptions, 1,033 yards, 6 touchdowns; 4-26 rushing.

23. Adam Thielen (MIN) Projection: 76 receptions, 955 yards, 10 touchdowns; 2-13 rushing.

24. Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Projection: 69 receptions, 866 yards, 7 touchdowns; 10-77-1 rushing.

Stats to Know

• Corey Davis had 2.46 yards per route run last year, behind only Stefon Diggs, Julio Jones, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams among qualifying receivers.
• Calvin Ridley averaged 137 air yards per game last year (tops in the league) and had an aDOT of 14.3 yards (third in the league among wide receivers with at least 80 targets)
• Adam Thielen has led the wide receiver position in percentage of fantasy points coming from touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
• In Courtland Sutton‘s last healthy season in 2019, he put up a 72-1,112-6 season on a team that ranked as one of the worst in the league in passing yards and yards per pass attempt.

__________

Tight Ends

My Top 12 Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce (KC) Projection: 103 receptions, 1,345 yards, 11 touchdowns.

2. Darren Waller (LV) Projection:99 receptions, 1,064 yards, 8 touchdowns.

3. George Kittle (SF) Projection: 89 receptions, 1,099 yards, 8 touchdowns.

4. Mark Andrews (BAL) Projection: 70 receptions, 858 yards, 7 touchdowns.

5. T.J. Hockenson (DET) Projection: 75 receptions, 840 yards, 5 touchdowns.

6. Kyle Pitts (ATL) Projection: 74 receptions, 846 yards, 5 touchdowns.

7. Logan Thomas (WAS) Projection: 66 receptions, 689 yards, 6 touchdowns.

8. Tyler Higbee (LAR) Projection: 59 receptions, 655 yards, 6 touchdowns.

9. Noah Fant (DEN) Projection: 63 receptions, 671 yards, 5 touchdowns.

10. Jonnu Smith (NE) Projection: 56 receptions, 545 yards, 6 touchdowns.

11. Dallas Goedert (PHI) Projection: 63 receptions, 701 yards, 4 touchdowns.

12. Robert Tonyan (GB) Projection: 55 receptions, 625 yards, 6 touchdowns.

Stats to Know

• Robert Tonyan tied Travis Kelce with the most touchdowns by a tight end last year with 11. Yet he had only 11 red zone targets (19th-most among tight ends).
• From Week 12 on, Logan Thomas averaged nine targets, seven catches, 60 yards receiving, and half a touchdown per game, and overall he ranked second in the NFL among tight ends last year with 16 red zone receptions. He now gets Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball in a more pass-happy offense.

Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Dan Harris is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.