The NFL season is almost upon us. Drafts are finalizing, teams are narrowing down their rosters, and fantasy managers are itching for some football.
With each season, people love to get bold and spicy with their football takes. Some are outlandish and have a low probability of happening. Others are more calculated and have a greater chance of coming to fruition. In either case, you need to back up your claims with some valid statistical analysis.
I’m giving 10 of my boldest predictions for the upcoming 2021 season. While these predictions may seem far-fetched to some, I believe they’re within the realm of possibilities.
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1. Joe Mixon finishes as a top-three running back
Starting off with a player many people are disgusted with is always fun, but hear me out. Mixon’s situation is different from past years. First, Giovani Bernard is no longer with the Bengals. This means Mixon will finally receive a three-down role for the first time in his career. Head coach Zac Taylor isn’t shy about giving Mixon a large workload either. Mixon averaged 27 touches in his last three games before missing the rest of the season with a foot injury.
While the Bengals’ offensive line is still not great, they addressed it during the offseason by signing Riley Reiff and drafting Jackson Carman. Finally, when Mixon is on the field, he has produced. He’s been RB8 on a PPG basis in two of the last three seasons. Everything is lining up for Mixon to dominate this season, so he has massive upside.
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire outscores every rookie/sophomore running back
I’ve actually had this prediction before the unfortunate season-ending injuries to Cam Akers and J.K. Dobbins, so this might not seem as outlandish now. However, CEH is still getting drafted behind Jonathan Taylor, Antonio Gibson, and rookie Najee Harris. There are cases for all of those players, but Edwards-Helaire can outproduce them all.
Edwards-Helaire had a solid rookie season, totaling 1,100 scrimmage yards in only 13 games. The Chiefs bolstered their offensive line this offseason, which is great news for the second-year rusher. He averaged a solid 4.4 yards per carry last year behind an average offensive line. His receiving involvement in the preseason also helps his case. They want to get CEH the ball more in space as pass-catching is his best skill set.
Edwards-Helaire has double-digit touchdown upside in this offense. While he wasn’t great at the goal line last year, that was more because of the offensive line. He has top-five RB upside if combining boosted receiving involvement with better red-zone efficiency.
3. Calvin Ridley produces 2,000+ receiving yards
Calvin Johnson set the record with 1,946 receiving yards in 2012. It’ll be hard for anyone to beat that, but Ridley can this season. Julio Jones is now on the Titans, and while the Falcons drafted stud TE Kyle Pitts, Ridley will be a lock for 160+ targets. His per-game averages without Jones are nothing short of amazing: 7.3 receptions, 107 receiving yards, 0.4 touchdowns, 11.1 targets. Prorated over 17 games, those numbers round out to 124 receptions, 1,819 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 targets. Elite.
Ridley can improve on those numbers without Jones for an entire season and get over 2,000 receiving yards. It is well within the realm of possibilities that we see him surpass Johnson’s record. Ridley will explode this season; don’t be shocked if he finishes as the WR1 overall.
4. Bengals’ WR trio all finish with 1,000 receiving yards
The Bengals dynamic trio of Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd are all extremely talented and have the ability to put up good numbers this year. Each of them getting over 1,o00 receiving yards will be tough, but it’s doable with 17 games.
Only five teams in NFL history have had three 1,000-yard receivers in a single season: 1980 Chargers, 1989 Washington, 1995 Falcons, 2004 Colts, and 2008 Cardinals. Barring injuries, we could see the Bengals next on the list. These players have the talent and quarterback play, and the Bengals will likely be in many shootouts. While they could cap each other’s upside if accomplishing this, they are still all worth drafting.
5. Kyler Murray posts 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards
There has been a lot of great quarterbacks in NFL history. We’ve also seen great running quarterbacks like Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson make defenses look silly. However, no quarterback has ever pulled off 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards in a single season.
Murray nearly pulled this off last season, throwing for 3,971 passing yards with 819 rushing yards. He got dinged up midway through the season, which caused him to not run as much in the second half. Murray would only need to average 235 passing yards and 58.8 rushing yards per game to accomplish this feat. He’s got the weapons and the legs to make history this year.
6. Justin Fields and Trey Lance finish as QB1s once they start
The preseason games have given fantasy managers a glimpse of the upside Fields and Lance possess. Quarterbacks who can run the ball at a high clip have a better chance at finishing as QB1s. While both rookies struggle at times, their rushing ability will help propel them to a QB1 finish anyway.
Lance is in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and gets to throw to George Kittle, Brandon Ayiuk, and Deebo Samuel. Fields get to throw to Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney, and he has solid receiving backs in David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen. The moment these two quarterbacks get the starting job, they have to be at least fringe QB1s.
7. Kyle Pitts breaks every rookie tight end record
Pitts is the most hyped rookie tight end ever. For good reason, too. He is a wide receiver playing the tight end position, and his size advantage and speed are unfair. That said, rookie tight ends seldom produce well. Evan Engram had the last solid rookie season, but even he wasn’t anything special.
Here are the rookie tight end records Pitts has to beat: 81 receptions (Keith Jackson), 1,076 yards (Mike Ditka), 12 touchdowns (Ditka), and 127 targets (Jeremy Shockey). Pitts is talented enough and in a situation where he can surpass all of these marks. The Falcons will throw the ball 600-650 times this season, and Pitts is their second target behind Ridley. This is bold because rookie tight ends rarely produce, but I’m willing to bet on Pitts being an outlier.
8. Derrick Henry finishes outside the top-six running backs
Now hear me out. I love Henry. He’s a fantastic running back and is arguably the NFL’s best rusher. However, history is against him following his 2,000-yard season in 2020. Here is a list of running backs to rush for 2,000-yards in a season: Barry Sanders, O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson. Historic players, and Henry joined them last season.
The bad news is that none of them topped 1,500 yards the following season. Barry Sanders was the closest at 1,491. After him, Peterson was the only other one to top 1,300. Henry is extremely talented, but he doesn’t catch many passes. The Titans also added another major weapon in Jones, so Henry regressing is inevitable. Although he will still finish as an RB1, he won’t be a top-five running back.
9. Austin Ekeler joins the 1,000 rushing, 1,000 receiving club
Ekeler is one of the NFL’s most dynamic players. His pass-catching prowess is second to none, and he is hyper-efficient running the ball. I believe this is the year he joins an elusive club of players to record 1,000 rushing and 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. The only three players to accomplish this feat are Roger Craig, Marshall Fulk, and Christian McCaffrey.
Ekeler recorded 993 receiving yards in 2019, so we know he has massive upside in that department. This is mainly bold because of his rushing. He’s never had more than 132 rushing attempts in a season, but he has averaged an efficient 4.7 yards per carry for his career. Ekeler is the lead back in this offense, and the depth chart behind him lacks talent. If the Chargers commit to Ekeler on the ground and get him close to 200 rushing attempts, he can get to that 1,000-yard mark. This could be a special season for him.
10. Laviska Shenault finishes as a top-20 wide receiver
Shenault is narrowly getting drafted outside the top-40 wide receivers at a WR41 ADP. The Jaguars have great weapons all around their offense. D.J. Chark and Marvin Jones join Shenault in the receiver room, and James Robinson will lead the backfield.
This preseason, the Jaguars deployed Shenault similarly to how the Steelers used Diontae Johnson last year. Johnson was a PPR monster in 2020, collecting 88 catches in 15 games. That’s the upside Shenault possesses.
The Jaguars’ line isn’t spectacular, so Trevor Lawrence may need to get the ball out quick to Shenault. Urban Meyer seems excited to use Shenault all over the field, including some rushes. If the offense is just middle of the pack, Shenault has massive potential. You’re getting him at an insane value right now. He can return big dividends for fantasy managers.
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Connor Rigg is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Connor, check out his archive and follow him @ConbonNFL.