Every draft season, fantasy managers are faced with big decisions revolving around fantasy football’s biggest topics. Last year, we questioned whether Lamar Jackson could replicate his 2019 MVP numbers. In 2019, we wondered where we should select Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon because of their holdout situations. Now that the preseason is officially here, it’s time to bring in our featured experts to tackle a few of this year’s biggest questions floating around in fantasyland. Read on below to see their insight on these topics!
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Q1. Between Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, and Najee Harris, who will be the best performer of this group and why?
“I expect them to all be in the same range, but I lean towards Najee Harris as the top performer. I expect him and Mixon to get similar volume in terms of overall touches, but I think the Steelers will look to more heavily involve Harris around the goal line, and I have him projected for one more touchdown (and seven more fantasy points) than Mixon. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who I am still happy to target) falls to the back of the line for me, and it’s purely on volume concerns. I think the Chiefs are good enough to know that they don’t need to lean into CEH super heavily, especially early on, so I think they’ll save some in the tank for the playoffs, which slightly hurts his fantasy stock.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
“It’s Najee Harris for me as the top performer. The Steelers NEED the balance to their attack more than the other two teams and Harris was absolutely dominant in college. Joe Mixon has had a myriad of injuries in his career and I fear Clyde Edwards-Helaire won’t see the same potential volume with Patrick Mahomes being so prolific.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
“For me, I’d have to go with Najee Harris. He’s going to be a key part of the offense, and the Steelers’ defense is going to shut teams down. He should see 20+ touches a game with a weak RB group behind him and he will be a safe play each week. I think Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be the worst performer. I don’t think his workload will be that of Joe Mixon or Najee Harris and I think Edwards-Helaire will have much less consistent week-to-week scoring. He feels like more of a risky pick than the other two RBs.”
– Tim Jablonski (The Hateful 8)
“This is such a difficult trio of backs to rank, but I just updated my rankings and have them: Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB10, Joe Mixon – RB11, and Najee Harris – RB12. I’m a bit bullish on CEH this season because of the explosive offense in which he plays, excellent offensive line, and positive TD regression coming his way. ESPN’s Mike Clay has noted that of all RBs to total at least 205 touches last season, CEH was the only one to score less than eight touchdowns. Mixon and Harris are neck and neck because both should be in for huge workloads, but I give the edge to the guy with the experience and better offensive line. All three of these guys are so close, but this is how I’d rank them right now. ”
– Zachary Hanshew (FantasyPros)
Q2. Who will be the most and least productive member of the Steelers’ WR trio and why?
“I think at the end of the day, the identity of this trio isn’t changing much year over year. Chase Claypool will have a few big games and offers TD upside. However, I think he’ll also be the most inconsistent on a weekly basis. I believe Najee Harris’ presence will solve the aDOT problems that led to underwhelming YPC numbers for JuJu Smith-Schuster. Ultimately, I think Diontae Johnson will be the most productive since he’ll be the likely leader of the group in targets and receptions. In the end, though, I think they are all fantasy-worthy and productive, but Claypool will be the least productive of the three because Harris steals his TD upside a tad, and I believe a good chunk of Claypool’s value is tied to that.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
” I like all the Steelers’ WRs but I think Diontae Johnson will be the most productive. He led the league in drops in 2020 but he should see double-digit targets each week and can finish as a WR1. JuJu Smith-Schuster will get a consistent workload in the slot, but with little to no outside work and the Steelers looking like moving more to a 12-personnel approach, Smith-Schuster’s upside is a lot lower than Johnson and Chase Claypool. ”
– Tim Jablonski (The Hateful 8)
“The most is pretty easily Diontae Johnson, who is almost certainly going to lead the team in targets and receptions and comes with an incredibly safe floor. JuJu Smith-Schuster should be the least productive of the trio, as the Steelers signed him to a fairly small deal and Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris should cut into his targets. With Claypool a red zone threat, Smith-Schuster looks like the odd man out.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
“This is one of the most burning questions in fantasy football now, and it’s still such a tough exercise to provide an answer. I’ll have to say JuJu Smith-Schuster will be the most productive of the trio because I believe Pittsburgh takes a more balanced offensive approach in 2021, which includes more focus on the run game and less of the aging Big Ben. That bodes well for high-volume slot man JJSS, who led the Steelers with 97 grabs in 2020. He turned them into just 831 yards on a putrid 8.6 yards per reception (which should positively regress in ’21), but he also hauled in nine scores. Volume alone leads me to rank Diontae Johnson next, as he led the Steelers comfortably in targets per game (9.6). I’ll rank Chase Claypool last because his production was heavily reliant on big plays as a rookie (11 TDs on just 72 total touches).”
– Zachary Hanshew (FantasyPros)
Q3. What are the percent odds that Trey Lance finishes as fantasy’s best rookie QB from the moment he starts and why? Also, when might he start?
“There is obvious uncertainty as to when Lance takes over, but from the moment he does, I’d put it at roughly 50% that he’s the best rookie quarterback. Trevor Lawrence should be a borderline viable fantasy option for most of the season and Justin Fields should do some intriguing things with Chicago, but Lance’s combination of athleticism, rushing upside, and coaching staff/system should lead him into the starting fantasy conversation as soon as he gets the nod. I expect him to take over after the 49ers’ bye in Week 6, and I have him projected for 287 completions for 3,210 yards passing with 18 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions, to go along with 87 carries for 433 yards and five rushing touchdowns.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
“The only person higher on Trey Lance than me is Kyle Yates, and that’s up for debate. However, I still believe Trevor Lawrence is the No. 1 rookie QB all season because he offers the complete package and people forget he’s pretty mobile as well. It would take massive struggles by Lawrence or an injury for Lance to usurp him as the No. 1 rookie QB, but if I had to put a percentage on it, I’d say 30%. My guess is Lance starts Week 7 after the bye and I think he’s the perfect third QB in Superflex because of his upside. He’s also worth a single-QB league stash if you end up missing on elite QBs and settling for a guy like Matt Ryan.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
“I’d put the odds somewhere in the 80% range from the moment Trey Lance starts, which I think will happen by the end of September at the latest. Reports out of training camp are glowing for the North Dakota State product, and Jimmy Garoppolo is surely being shopped aggressively. Lance has a top-10 offensive line, an excellent group of receivers, tight ends, and backs, and Kyle Shanahan at the helm — no other rookie is set up quite as nice as Lance.”
– Zachary Hanshew (FantasyPros)
“It’s only a matter of time before Trey Lance starts, but when he does see the field, I’d give him a 60% chance he is the best rookie QB for fantasy. He’s got a great offensive line protecting him, a top-quality receiving core, and he is going to put up some serious numbers on the ground to give him a great weekly floor. I generally expect him to start by Week 3, but if he starts from Week 1, I project him to throw for 3,400 yards and 20 passing touchdowns. On the ground, he can add 750 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns.”
– Tim Jablonski (The Hateful 8)
Thank you to the experts for sharing their thoughts on each of these topics. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and check out our latest podcast below for more advice.
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