Projections typically signify the most likely outcome based on previous seasons, with a sprinkle of adjustment for new roles or vacated opportunities. Top-tier projections are easier to create than the tiers below, and projecting concrete totals becomes more difficult the lower you go. Keep that in mind when are deciding whether to draft A.J. Dillon (RB – GB) or David Johnson (RB – HOU) if you intend to factor their 2021 projected rushing yards into your decision. You can find FantasyPros Consensus Projections here.
While knowing the most likely outcome does have some value early in your drafts, it becomes critical to understand which players are more apt to go over or under those projections as the draft wears on. Below are three runnings backs who could beat their projected numbers and two who may have a hard time living up to expectations.
Players that will beat the projections
Javonte Williams (RB-DEN) 2021 Projections: 188 Att, 836 Yards, 5 TDs, 26 Rec
If you haven’t heard of the Denver rookie running back before now, know that he was graded as an elite prospect before being selected 35th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s a big, fast playmaker and can even contribute in the passing game. Incumbent RB Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN) could still face a suspension. Williams is not buried on the depth chart, so what should start as a 40-60 split could shift quickly once the rookie’s explosiveness is on full display. He could also benefit from Teddy Bridgewater’s (QB – DEN) check-down tendencies. Rookies remain the most demanding players to project, but 250 touches and eight touchdowns are well within reach for Williams in 2021.
Tevin Coleman (RB – NYJ) 2021 Projections: 131 Att, 504 Yards, 4 TDs, 8 Rec
NFL training camp news comes at us fast and furious this time of year, but it is imperative to sift through the noise and find the golden nuggets of information. New York Jets beat writers have Tevin Coleman atop the RB depth chart as the lead back in Robert Saleh’s 49ers inspired west coast offense.
Coleman’s familiarity with the offense is his most considerable advantage over rookie rusher Michael Carter (RB – NYJ). The veteran had difficulty staying on the field in 2020, but between 2017-19 Coleman garnered around 160-200 touches in the RBBC in San Francisco. He is in line to secure at least that many, and projections are well below those totals. While Tevin Coleman isn’t going to be a force late in 2021, he is a potential weekly FLEX play early on.
Travis Etienne (RB – JAC) 2021 Projections: 134 Att, 534 Yards, 4 TDs, 63 Rec
Skylar Carlin recently shared some Zero RB Strategy Targets, and it is no wonder Jaguars rookie Travis Etienne topped the list. New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer inherited a porous defense that will have the Jags chasing points most of the year. That means more four-minute drills and spread formations, the role Etienne fills perfectly right out of the gate. The consensus is handing Travis 60 receptions easy, but they are underestimating his involvement on the ground. Etienne will be on the field far too often to rush fewer than 160-170 times and could also broach that 200 carry boundary. He is going to crack the 200-touch mark, but will he spill into steady RB2 volume? I believe so. Etienne will rack up 1400+ yards from scrimmage in his inaugural NFL season.
Players that will fall short of the projections
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) 2021 Projections: 341 Att, 1670 Yards, 14 TDs, 24 Rec
Derrick Henry is a unicorn. Over the past two seasons, he has amassed 681 carries! Human bodies, even Henry’s, are built to absorb that type of punishment over time. The Tennessee Titans are Super Bowl contenders this season, knowing that having a healthy Henry down the stretch is of the utmost importance. Couple their likelihood to protect him with the departure of run-heavy coordinator Arthur Smith, and you have the right mix for Derrick Henry to average fewer than 20 carries per game. Darrynton Evans (RB – TEN) was drafted last year to be the change of pace back but couldn’t stay healthy. Now, with total health in training camp, the Titans will be able to give Henry extra blows throughout the game. So expect closer to 18 rushes per contest instead of 20, leaving Henry shy of 1300 rushing yards this season.
Damien Harris (RB – NE) 2021 Projections: 211 Att, 992 Yards, 6 TDs, 12 Rec
Damien Harris was an excellent addition to the New England offense in 2020. From Week 4-11 with Sony Michel (RB – NE) sidelined, Harris, topped 100 yards on the ground three times and scored double-digit fantasy points four of those weeks. After Michel returned, he averaged just 6.7 fantasy points per game while splitting work in the Patriot RBBC. Michel is healthy in camp, and Cam Newton (QB – NE) is the defacto goalline back, limiting Harris’ upside. I have Damien Harris closer to 150 carries and 660 yards.
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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.