As you prepare for your draft(s), it’s always a good strategy to compare Average Draft Position (ADP) to the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). By doing so, you’ll get an idea about which players the experts like more, and less, than the general public. This knowledge gives you some direction about when you need to draft players and which players you should avoid at their current ADP.
For this article, I compared the latest ECR to the ADP on MyFantasyLeague.com for PPR leagues. This is incredibly easy to do with the Dissenting Opinions tool on FantasyPros, which allows you to compare any Expert / ADP source that you want. Below are some of the players with large variances, grouped by position:
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Quarterbacks
QB’s in general, are getting drafted much earlier than the ECR recommends. Most probable starters are being drafted a round or two too early. This is not uncommon as people tend to over-value QB’s but underscores the notion that you should wait to draft one. Load up on RB’s and WR’s early as you can still get a quality QB late in the draft.
Two QB’s that are going much earlier than they should include:
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU) | ADP: 165, ECR: 285 (-120)
Trey Lance (QB – SF) | ADP: 117, ECR: 167 (-50)
Though we don’t know for sure, signs point to Watson not being under center for the Texans, or any other team for that matter, anytime soon. With an ECR of 285, the experts are basically saying, “don’t waste a draft pick.” As for Lance, it’s understandable why people are excited about him, but keep in mind that he’s still a very raw talent on what should be a good team. It may be some time before he takes over the reins from Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF).
Conversely, there’s really only one QB that the ECR likes better than his ADP:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB – WAS) | ADP: 154, ECR: 136 (+18)
Fitz-Magic’s rank amongst QB’s isn’t very different between the ECR and ADP (QB #22 ECR, QB #24 ADP). Both sources view him as a low-end backup, but if you do want to take a chance on Fitzy, you can probably get him very late in your draft.
Running Backs
With regard to the RB’s, drafters are more likely to reach for trendy breakout candidates than the ECR. These guys have tremendous upside but are either rookies or haven’t proven themselves long-term yet. Some of the names where the ADP is a round or so higher than the ECR include:
Trey Sermon (RB – SF) | ADP: 80, ECR: 96 (-16)
AJ Dillon (RB – GB) | ADP: 105, ECR: 117 (-12)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) | ADP: 15, ECR: 27 (-12)
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) | ADP: 29, ECR: 39 (-10)
The other name the public likes much better than the experts is:
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB) | ADP: 88, ECR: 107 (-19)
This is probably due to name recognition more than anything else. It’s wise to steer clear of Lenny this early as he’s not likely to produce consistently given the Bucs’ crowded backfield.
On the flip side, the ECR values the PPR specialist far more than ADP, so there may be some bargains to be found later in the draft with these guys:
James White (RB – NE) | ADP: 176, ECR: 132 (+44)
Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) | ADP: 141, ECR: 103 (+38)
Kenyan Drake (RB – LV) | ADP: 125, ECR: 100 (+25)
Giovani Bernard (RB – TB) | ADP: 168, ECR: 144 (+24)
Phillip Lindsay (RB – HOU) | ADP: 153, ECR: 130 (+23)
Latavius Murray (RB – NO) | ADP: 148, ECR: 131 (+17)
Jamaal Williams (RB – DET) | ADP: 128, ECR: 113 (+15)
Of these guys, only Murray isn’t a big-time threat in the passing game. He should see enough usage in what figures to be a run-heavy offense in New Orleans to be relevant even if Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) stays healthy.
Wide Receivers
The variances between the ECR and ADP with Wide Receivers is interesting and quite variable. Here are the guys that are getting drafted much earlier than the experts recommend:
Marquez Callaway (WR – NO) | ADP: 167, ECR: 235 (-68)
Henry Ruggs III (WR – LV) | ADP: 109, ECR: 149 (-40)
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) | ADP: 70, ECR: 110 (-40)
A.J. Green (WR – ARI) | ADP: 175, ECR: 207 (-32)
Russell Gage (WR – ATL) | ADP: 110, ECR: 142 (-32)
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) | ADP: 102, ECR: 125 (-23)
Rondale Moore (WR – ARI) | ADP: 161, ECR: 178 (-17)
Much like the RB’s, the public is more likely to go for high-upside / unproven guys earlier than the ECR (Ruggs, Waddle, Moore). Guys with name recognition looking to bounce back may also be overvalued (Green, Thomas). Gage is somewhat interesting but could go either way, so the 11th round may be a bit early. I’m guessing Callaway will rise in the ECR given his performance in Monday’s preseason game.
In terms of value amongst the WR’s, the only player with more than one round or so of variance is:
Will Fuller V (WR – MIA) | ADP: 120, ECR: 85 (+35)
If you can get Fuller in the 11th or 12th round, you may be pretty happy with the result as he has produced pretty consistently over the years when he is active (note that he will miss Week 1 due to suspension).
Tight Ends
There aren’t too many wide variances with the Tight Ends between the ECR and ADP, but there are a few of note. These guys are going at least a round earlier than ECR suggests:
Zach Ertz (TE – PHI) | ADP: 147, ECR: 173 (-26)
Jared Cook (TE – LAC) | ADP: 145, ECR: 165 (-20)
Anthony Firkser (TE – TEN) | ADP: 164, ECR: 179 (-15)
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) | ADP: 43, ECR: 56 (-13)
Ertz and Cook are getting boosted by name recognition. It’s hard to know what to expect from either of these veterans this year. Firkser has a great opportunity in front of him but hasn’t proven he can handle it yet. Pitts is a tremendous talent but taking a chance on him in the 4th round seems quite risky.
These TE’s are going a round or two later than ECR and thus may prove bargains:
Hunter Henry (TE – NE) | ADP: 158, ECR: 135 (+23)
Noah Fant (TE – DEN) | ADP: 95, ECR: 76 (+19)
Jonnu Smith (TE – NE) | ADP: 132, ECR: 118 (+14)
Evan Engram (TE – NYG) | ADP: 140, ECR: 127 (+13)
Henry, Fant, and Smith are all very talented pass-catchers that should produce if they stay healthy. There’s risk with all 3 – Henry and Smith are in a new situation, and Fant has yet to get consistent QB play – but they all have solid upside. Engram is probably getting a bit too much hate as a Fantasy player this year, but it’s somewhat understandable given the competition for targets he now faces in New York.
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