There are games spanning the entirety of today. DraftKings is offering numerous feature slates as a result of the wide span of start times. However, FanDuel’s main slate starts at 7:15 PM ET, with the Yankees and White Sox playing in the Field of Dreams contest in Iowa. DraftKings has a main slate that’s similar, including only the three games, starting 9:38 PM ET or later. Those are the games this piece focuses on, making it a four-game slate on FanDuel and a three-game main on DraftKings. The small nature of the slate means I’ve scaled back the featured players.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Tonight's starting pitcher strategy is a two-person show starring Logan Webb and Yu Darvish. The former is easily my favorite pitcher on the slate. He's completely underpriced. Darvish is the pitcher I'm pairing him with on DraftKings. San Diego's righty is a usable option on FanDuel, too.
All Contest Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. COL
Webb's having a breakout 2021 campaign. Further, he's pitched extremely well over his last six turns spanning 30.0 innings, recording a 2.10 ERA, 3.40 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, 23.7 K%, and 29.7 CSW%, per FanGraphs.
Additionally, his matchup literally couldn't be better tonight. This year, the Rockies' 67 wRC+ on the road is nine points lower than a tie for the second-lowest mark. They've also struck out at a 25.7% clip. So, Webb should have little trouble carving them up tonight.
Yu Darvish (SD) at ARI
Darvish's 5.04 ERA in his last eight starts totaling 44.2 innings aren't a mark you'd normally go out of your way to roster, especially on a slate shared with viable alternatives such as Shohei Ohtani, Jose Berrios, and German Marquez. However, unsustainable bad homer luck is the culprit for the ugly ERA, and his underlying metrics are sterling.
Further, Darvish shoved against tonight's opponent, the Diamondbacks, in his last start. He tied them up, holding them to only two runs on four hits, zero walks, and a dozen strikeouts in seven innings. Arizona's been no great shakes this year against righties or at home, ranking 29th in wRC+ (79) against righties and 26th in wRC+ (91) at home. As a result, I'm expecting Darvish to dominate them for a second straight start.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Oracle Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SF -167
Marquez can make for a challenging matchup for the Giants tonight. However, there aren't many bums taking the hill on this small slate, and San Francisco's one of the top offenses against righties this season. They're also equipped to exploit one of Marquez's occasional weaknesses; spotty control. The Giants rank tied for seventh in walk rate (9.6%) against righties.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/SD -165
I mentioned the high quality of pitchers toeing the rubber tonight. However, the Friars square off with a below-average starter, Taylor Widener. He sports a 4.89 ERA that's actually better than his ERA estimators. Also, Widener suffers from taterservingitis, ceding 2.15 HR/9.
View the best player prop bets for today's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- Manny Machado has thrived in same-handed matchups this year, amassing a .356 OBP, .237 ISO, and 138 wRC+.
- Jake Cronenworth hasn't matched Machado's excellence against righties. Still, a .343 OBP, .200 ISO, and 119 wRC+ aren't numbers to turn your nose up at.
- The White Sox aren't on the DraftKings main slate. They are on the FanDuel main slate, making Eloy Jimenez a tantalizing power source against homer-prone Andrew Heaney.
- Brandon Belt's responsible for a .345 OBP, .307 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against righties this year.
- Brandon Crawford's been even more lethal against righties than Belt, with a .379 OBP, .245 ISO, and 146 wRC+.
- Nestled between Belt and Crawford in wRC+ against righties is LaMonte Wade Jr., with a 142 wRC+. He backs that stellar mark with a .346 OBP and .301 ISO.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
I suppose I'm guilty of West Coast bias tonight. It's all about the Giants and Padres for selecting hitters. At FanDuel, Jimenez and teammate Andrew Vaughn are intriguing options. Conversely, where a catcher is needed on DraftKings, Alejandro Kirk is a nifty option -- if he starts -- who isn't on either the Giants or Padres. Beyond those players, I'm mixing and matching from the Giants and Padres.
MLB Prop Bets
- George Springer Prop Bet Odds
- Matt Olson Prop Bet Odds
- Starling Marte Prop Bet Odds
- Pete Alonso Prop Bet Odds
- Juan Soto Prop Bet Odds
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.