It’s Friday night, and the Major League Baseball is packed as usual. Fourteen games. Twenty-eight teams.
Normally, I prefer to approach a given slate from a contrarian view to find a nice edge. I’ll still lean on that, but we’re past the Trade Deadline and into the stretch where we see contenders separate themselves. These are the “dog days of summer,” and some teams are built to make their move in the coming weeks. This trend is a critical theme to Friday’s build.
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Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
For the first time in a while, there are few surprises atop the pitching salary list. This aligns with the introduction to this article, where I am leaning toward the metaphorical cream rising to the top. Even if the names are as we expect, we still have decisions to make. The first is the grouping of Corbin Burnes, Chris Bassitt, Zack Greinke, and Adam Wainwright. Bassitt's slight salary savings from Burnes makes it possible that his popularity increases a little too much for my liking, while Greinke will probably get some love because of his matchup. My favorite from the group is Wainwright, though, as he consistently delivers long outings. If nothing else, he's a solid cash play.
It’s Friday night, and the Major League Baseball is packed as usual. Fourteen games. Twenty-eight teams.
Normally, I prefer to approach a given slate from a contrarian view to find a nice edge. I’ll still lean on that, but we’re past the Trade Deadline and into the stretch where we see contenders separate themselves. These are the “dog days of summer,” and some teams are built to make their move in the coming weeks. This trend is a critical theme to Friday’s build.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
For the first time in a while, there are few surprises atop the pitching salary list. This aligns with the introduction to this article, where I am leaning toward the metaphorical cream rising to the top. Even if the names are as we expect, we still have decisions to make. The first is the grouping of Corbin Burnes, Chris Bassitt, Zack Greinke, and Adam Wainwright. Bassitt's slight salary savings from Burnes makes it possible that his popularity increases a little too much for my liking, while Greinke will probably get some love because of his matchup. My favorite from the group is Wainwright, though, as he consistently delivers long outings. If nothing else, he's a solid cash play.
After the initial group, Kyle Muller's salary jumps off the page. He's expensive, but he's been excellent. How much longer can that continue, though? He's been capped at 87 pitches in three consecutive starts and has struck out at least seven batters in three of his last five outings. In all five, he's walked at least two batters. He's the ultimate home run play -- bad phrasing for a pitcher -- because his outcomes are so varied. His price is too high to take the risk unless you want to do so for contrarian sake. I'll keep him on my shortlist because of that.
If we're talking "risk," then Sandy Alcantara and German Marquez must be included. The two will go head-to-head in Colorado and face both the opposing lineup and the altitude of Denver. With that, their respective salaries are still on the high side, while the over-under is shockingly reasonable at 9.5. Seriously, that number is three runs lower than what we occasionally see for a game in Colorado, and both the oddsmakers and DFS sites agree that pitching -- and not hitting -- will be the story. That's enough for me to buy.
I've spent a lot of time on the upper half of the salary groups for Friday, but it's because the pricing is more standard than in recent weeks. The better pitchers are higher-priced. Period. There must be exceptions, though, and Ryan Weathers sets up as one. He'll face one of the worst offenses in the league -- made even worse by the trades of last week -- but he's also a dangerous play in himself. Weathers has not reached 85 pitches in two months, and his DraftKings' scores are routinely on the lower end of the scale. If savings are needed, however, he's a target.
Logan Webb quietly delivers solid outings. That's it. It's as simple as that. If we want to take it one step further, then we can add in "at a great price." Logan Webb quietly delivers solid outings at a great price. On Friday, his salary is extremely reasonable, and he has delivered at least 13 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight starts. In fact, his average score during that stretch is 18.6.
Cash Game Recommendations: Adam Wainwright
GPP Recommendations: Adam Wainwright, Logan Webb, Kyle Muller, Sandy Alcantara, German Marquez, Ryan Weathers
Top Lineup Stacks
Red Sox
Braves
Reds
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I'm generally not a fan of using an offense that just put together a big outing, but the Braves scored six of their eight runs from Thursday night in one inning. Otherwise, they were quiet. However, the stack of Atlanta goes deeper than the most recent game, as the story is the team's record. The Braves have been a relative disappointment compared to last year, but they are now over .500 and still in the division race. A showdown with Erick Fedde's 5.01 ERA might be exactly what Atlanta needs to keep pace in the National League East.
Start a search party. It's been four games since Joey Votto has hit a home run. Something's wrong. Even if he doesn't revert to the ridiculous power pace he displayed over the last two weeks, Votto remains as hot as any hitter and on a team that is creeping up the standings. If the Reds want to make a serious playoff push, it likely involves taking advantage of teams like the Pirates. They did it on Thursday, and there's no reason to think they won't do it again on Friday.
If we're looking for teams to separate themselves, we have to note the cold streak by the Red Sox. Boston has lost six of its last seven games and averages 2.56 runs per game over their last nine contests. The amazing part? The Red Sox still rank sixth in the league in runs per game on the season. While a transition from playing against Detroit to playing in Toronto would appear, on the surface, to be an upgrade in difficulty, a cold offense will almost certainly welcome such a move. Boston is poised to find success at the plate on Friday, and Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez -- probably not both in the same lineup -- should be at the center of it.
Money will be a problem with how much I am already spending on other players in this Core Studs section, but if salary was leftover, I'm highlighting Jose Ramirez as another player worth his inflated price. Ramirez was given Thursday off but had previously hit two home runs and collected four hits over his last three games. Perhaps most importantly, Cleveland just played back-to-back series on the road and now returns home to host the Tigers -- the same Tigers who have been quite good following the All-Star Break and just took two-of-three from the Red Sox. Any regression by Detroit opens the door for Cleveland. Not that it matters for Ramirez, as he easily leads the team in home runs, doubles, and WAR.
In continuing with the theme from the introduction of this article, I am looking for the "better" teams to assert their dominance wherever possible. Statistically, the Giants are the "best" team in baseball and can be the first to reach 70 wins with a victory against the Brewers. To do so, San Francisco will have to topple Corbin Burnes. Burnes has remained excellent over the duration of the season, but his numbers have regressed as expected. I will still give him the respect he deserves and not stack a team against him, but I want exposure with an inexpensive hitter. That's where LaMonte Wade, Jr. comes into play. Wade has been leading off for the Giants and presents a nice risk-reward play for DFS with his low batting average but relatively high power output.
If Wade is a perfect example of a low batting average with high power potential, then Jorge Soler is the enhanced version. Soler is pressing against a .200 batting average on the season but has 15 home runs. Amazingly enough, Soler had hit safely in four consecutive games -- including three hits in one game -- before Thursday night's 0-for-3 outing, and he has moved toward the front of the batting order. If he can stay there for Friday, I'm excited to buy in at a low price.
Remember when Nick Castellanos was one of the hottest hitters in baseball? He hasn't gone anywhere, as he's still batting an outstanding .329 with 18 home runs. Then again, technically, he was missing from action because of his stint on the Injured List. His return left him with an 0-for-3 night on Thursday -- and we do have to be a little careful with his wrist injury -- but his absence has helped keep his salary on the low side.
The Cardinals handled Yadier Molina exactly how I like to approach my DFS hitters. That is, after an extended hot streak, there will probably be a small cooldown period before the trend can continue. Molina had hit safely in three consecutive games and four of his last five, with each of those games featuring a multi-hit effort. He then went hitless on Wednesday and didn't play on Thursday. Perfect. Now we can buy for the continuation of the earlier trend.
The Mariners have certainly been one of the more interesting teams over the last few weeks. Seattle has surged to within striking distance of a Wild Card spot, yet curiously traded away Kendall Graveman a few days before the Trade Deadline in what was interpreted as the team "selling." In return, Seattle received Abraham Toro. Toro has been nothing but outstanding at the plate, and he enters Friday with a gaudy .438 batting average since the trade. There will clearly be a regression in Toro's future, but he's currently a scorching hot bat on a team fighting for its playoff life. I'll take that at a low cost.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Even though I didn't pay for the most expensive pitcher and slid down the salary list to find my SP2, money was extremely tight in every build on Friday. This is because hitters, as a whole, carried a higher-than-normal price tag.
The Core Studs are usually on the more expensive side of the scale, so that's not a surprise. The problem is that the players listed in that section are even higher-priced than we see regularly -- think upwards of $6,000 on DraftKings instead of $5,500. It adds up.
The same is true for the Value Plays. Indeed, we have a few low-priced players listed, but the salaries of Jorge Soler, Nick Castellanos, and Yadier Molina considered "value" is a tough pill to swallow with their average prices roughly $500 higher than mid-tier punts.
Ultimately, the lineups are solid, but money was tight. Such is the case when we are paying a premium by intentionally using teams with a better track record of winning games.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
