Have you ever scoured the web desperate for advice on your upcoming fantasy football draft, only to find that the vast majority of the information out there didn’t apply to your league settings? Sometimes it feels like deep-league drafters get left out in the cold. Would it be nice to have a crack at drafting CeeDee Lamb in the late-third or Travis Etienne in the fifth? Sure! But for deep-league players, those aren’t realistic scenarios for your draft day.
Using advice geared toward standard 12-person leagues to prepare for your 14-person draft makes for a tricky proposition. So let’s take the guesswork out of it and cater some recommendations specifically toward a deep-league draft. Today is the second in a three-part series of mock draft simulation articles detailing 14-team draft strategies from three different portions of the snake: Early, middle, and late in the first round.
READ: Fantasy Football Deep League Mock Draft: 14-Team PPR, Early Pick (2021)
For each of these articles, I’ll run my mock draft simulations using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard. You won’t find a tool more valuable in the industry than the FantasyPros Draft Wizard, which allows you to customize mock draft simulations based on your specific league settings.
For this mock draft exercise, I’ve chosen to draft against the Composite ADP and the Yahoo Pre-Draft Rankings, checking the corresponding boxes to allow the Draft Wizard to replicate a 14-team Yahoo draft as closely as possible. The settings will be:
- 14 Teams
- Full PPR
- 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE), K, D/ST & five bench slots
For this installment, I’ll be drafting from the 1.08 draft slot to represent a mid-round draft position-a spot dreaded by many, but one with its advantages that we’ll explore throughout the mock.
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1.08 – Davante Adams (WR – GB)
In leagues that start three wide receivers and a Flex, Devante Adams is an instant selection for me if he’s on the board anywhere after the top five picks. Truthfully, the only running backs I would definitively take above Adams are Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara. In this mock, Derrick Henry, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley (read the tea leaves and avoid Barkley in your first round, period) were taken before my pick, allowing Adams to fall to me for a slam-dunk start to my roster.
Aaron Rodgers is back for one last ride, which is enough to vault Adams into a tier of his own at the WR position. Adams is not only the clear No. 1 target on his team, but he’s essentially the only reliable target in the Packers’ WR room.
Don’t overthink this. Last season’s WR1 finds himself in a tremendous position to wear the crown again in 2021. In the middle of the first round, why force yourself into a lesser RB when you can assert your dominance with the best wideout in the sport? Go with game theory. Go with Devante Adams.
2.07 – D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
One of my favorite ways to start a mock draft when selecting in the back half of the first round is by establishing a WR powerhouse with Devante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins. Unfortunately, we were one spot away from that possibility in this mock, as Hopkins went one pick before my turn in round two. I can’t let a little bad luck put me on tilt, though. Evaluate the board for what it is, not for what it isn’t.
Two of the three early tight end targets remain on the board, but Travis Kelce is the only TE of the trio on whom I would be willing to take a swing this early in the draft. Running backs have been flying off the board, with many of my round-two targets like Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire already rostered by my opponents. That means, despite my near-miss on Hopkins, WR still might be the best value at this stage in the draft.
I’m staring down Keenan Allen, D.K. Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown. Though Allen feels like the safest pick of the bunch, I prefer to draft for upside. Each of the other three plays in a run-first offense, but Metcalf is a freak athlete attached to the best quarterback of the group. He’s my pick here as I establish a dynamite start to my WR corps.
3.08 – Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
A few thoughts are running through my head with this selection, so let’s parse it out. Firstly, this is a pick that could change dramatically between now and the first week of September when many leagues hold their drafts. Amari Cooper is currently on the pre-season PUP list but is eligible for activation whenever he’s physically able to return to the field. I’m making this pick assuming Cooper joins the active roster before Week 1-a setback would rightfully send him tumbling down draft boards.
The allure on Cooper is obvious; with Dak Prescott under center, the Cowboys were a juggernaut offensively in the early part of the 2020 season. Though the porous Dallas defense, which forced its offense into such an aggressive air-raid strategy last season, has improved on paper for 2021, I still expect Dak to air it out regularly this season. Of course, his status is another complicating element of this pick.
Prescott is dealing with shoulder soreness in training camp. For now, the Cowboys say they aren’t concerned about it. Therefore, while mocking in early August, neither are we. But any negative alteration to Prescott’s outlook would turn me off from Dallas pass-catchers in a jiffy. Rams WRs Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp were also attractive in round three, but assuming health for both parts of Dallas’ dynamic QB-WR connection, I am desperate for a piece of that pie. As CeeDee Lamb’s stock rises rapidly, the veteran Cooper could be a fantasy value in this explosive offense.
With our third straight WR selection, it appears we have entered Zero RB territory for this mock.
4.07 – Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)
As my first three selections prove, I don’t shy away from a best-player-available strategy. Entering Week 1 of a fantasy season without bonafide studs at the running back position doesn’t bother me. It’s true: Zero RB can be an effective strategy in fantasy, with one major caveat. You have to be right about your RB targets in the middle rounds.
In an actual 14-person league last year, I waited until the fifth round to choose my first running back. Landing Kareem Hunt, David Montgomery, and D’Andre Swift in the middle rounds, though, is the only reason the strategy worked. Identifying those potential RB values is everything. In 2021, Travis Etienne feels like a linchpin name for Zero RB strategists.
With reports out of training camp painting a picture of Etienne’s role as a pass-catcher, his stock is rising fast. As much as I would love to YOLO this pick and lock Diontae Johnson into my Flex spot in the fourth round, I don’t feel like gambling that Etienne would fall to the fifth. Though the Draft Wizard projects only a 35% chance that Etienne is selected before my 5.08 pick, I can’t risk missing out on him.
Etienne’s expected target volume out of the Jaguars backfield makes him a perfect match for Zero RB enthusiasts. He’s a high-floor player in PPR formats, with room to grow into a league-winner if he supplants James Robinson for early-down work as the season evolves.
5.08 – Chase Claypool (WR – PIT)
Diontae Johnson fell off the board a handful of picks before my turn in the fifth round, but two of his teammates remain available. Though I’m not entirely sure why JuJu Smith-Schuster is being left for dead by fantasy drafters this season-even amid all the troubles for the Pittsburgh passing game last year, his floor was sturdy-I think the upside is better for a Chase Claypool breakout in year two.
Claypool displayed his insane athleticism with a sprawling catch during the Hall of Fame game. Talk about kicking off your preseason with a bang.
Knowing our goal at running back is to simply find a stable floor for our two weekly lineup spots, let’s chase a ceiling at the Flex position. In his rookie season, the Steelers were constantly looking for reasons to feed Claypool the football. He’s given us no reason to believe that strategy won’t continue into his sophomore campaign. With another year of experience under his belt, Claypool’s star is ascending heading into 2021.
Note: Claypool is already my third player with a Week 7 bye. That doesn’t bother me. My roster will endure plenty of changes before then, so I’m not going to worry about Week 7 before Week 1.
6.07 – Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Considering this is a 14-team league, Deebo Samuel would be a ridiculous steal at this point in the draft. Undeniable values at WR in the middle rounds might be the only reason to regret a Zero RB strategy in 2021. That being said, if I had opted for an RB instead of Claypool in round five, Javonte Williams is the player I would have selected in that spot. He’s still available to me in the sixth, so I didn’t lose anything by waiting.
Despite the Draft Wizard giving him only a 23% chance of being selected before my next pick, I’ve seen Williams going consistently in rounds five and six in 14-team mock drafts. If I’m intent upon drafting Williams to this roster, there’s no way I can afford to pass on him here.
Chase Edmonds is probably a more prudent pick in this spot, given his PPR penchant and his attachment to an elite offense in Arizona. I’m aiming for Williams as this year’s version of DeAndre Swift or Cam Akers. He’s a talented rookie who should earn more opportunities and become more fantasy-relevant as the season goes.
Williams over Edmonds means I’m still searching for a capable RB2 in Week 1. I can’t imagine the Draft Wizard is going to like this pick very much when consider my final grade. Although you need to ensure you make the playoffs before you can start planning for them, Williams is the kind of player I want on my roster for the stretch run of a championship pursuit. That’s why I’m aggressively targeting the rookie in the middle rounds this season.
7.08 – Ronald Jones (RB – TB)
I’m back for another dive into the bargain bin for some running back help in round seven. Michael Carter is another intriguing rookie whose pass-catching abilities could turn him into a viable weekly floor play as an RB2, given the kind of roster I’ve constructed. In most mocks at this juncture, I don’t think twice about selecting him. Even as my third rookie RB, I think Carter would fit this roster nicely.
This time, though, I can’t seem to shake off Ronald Jones. Though Leonard Fournette played the workhorse role for the Bucs during their Super Bowl run last winter, I don’t think Fournette is a better football player than Jones. Not at this stage of their respective careers.
This pick relies more heavily on Bruce Arians’ decision-making than I typically prefer, but there’s a world in which Jones serves as the lead in the Tampa Bay backfield for the majority of the upcoming season. He’s ranked as the top RB available at this pick, one spot above Fournette in the Expert Consensus Rankings.
According to Mike Tagliere’s extremely valuable Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, Jones performed as an RB2 or better 50% of the time in 2020. He was an RB3 or better 78.6% percent of the time last season. And remember, those numbers are based on 12-team leagues. What that means is, even with the question marks surrounding his workload every week, Jones was a quality floor-play option for your lineup. That’s a profile that blends well with the superstar WRs were drafted in the early rounds of this mock.
Jones is a worthy fill-in option for our RB2 rotation, especially until we’re sure Javonte Williams is going to get regular work to justify his place in our weekly lineup. And if Arians decides to transfer the reins to Jones on a more regular basis, he’s got weekly ‘Boom’ potential as one of the most effective pure rushers in the NFL.
8.07 – A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)
A.J. Dillon is a fascinating RB handcuff in 2021. Though Aaron Jones will demand the majority of the work out of the backfield for Green Bay, the Packers seem ready to pile more onto Dillon’s plate, as well. Even with Jones active, Jamaal Williams was featured heavily in this offense a year ago. He’s now in Detroit, clearing the way for Dillon as the team’s primary backup rusher.
Dillon profiles as more of a downhill bruiser than Williams, which could mean the Packers siphoning the bulk of the passing downs back to Jones, who excels in the receiving game. Dillon should have his chance to shine by chewing up ground on early downs when Jones needs a breather. Don’t be surprised if Dillon works his way into goal-line packages, as well, providing more touchdown upside than Williams had in this backup role last season.
Ground, pound, and pray for touchdowns. That’s not traditionally the way I like to chase fantasy points in PPR leagues, but Dillon is a physical beast whom the Packers seem eager to deploy this season. I’m intrigued by his standalone upside, but if something should happen to Jones, Dillon’s potential sky-rockets even further. He’s a great get as an RB4.
9.08 – Tony Pollard (RB – DAL)
I like how this roster is shaping up. Through eight rounds, we’re starting to strike some balance with four RBs and four RBs on the squad. Robert Tonyan is staring me in the face, which would provide a fascinating Packers stack in addition to Adams and Dillon. Tonyan is the last available TE before I go into punt-and-stream mode at the position, but there’s also great value at other positions in this spot.
Since I prioritized wide receivers so heavily in the early rounds, the only wideouts I’m taking from here on out are pure upside shots. Elijah Moore is my favorite remaining rookie WR on the board, but Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall are sitting out there, too. I’d love to employ one of them as my WR5. At running back, Tony Pollard, Nyheim Hines, and Latavius Murray are all elite handcuffs with standalone value.
Amusingly, this ninth-round pick is the one I’ve struggled with the most throughout this entire mock. I love the value on Tonyan here, but the well of roster-worthy running backs has nearly dried up. I’d like to take one more before that happens. It’s some consolation that I don’t expect Tonyan to fall to me at this point when I draft for keeps. Rumors of an expanded role for Pollard have been circulating in recent weeks, so I’m going to lock in the Cowboy as my fifth-and likely, final-running back of the draft.
10.07 – Trey Lance (QB – SF)
Parsing through my options in the ninth round was extremely difficult. I’m afraid it’s only going to get more complicated as Trey Lance continues his ascent in draft rankings. I knew Lance would fall to me in the 10th in this mock. Even here, the Draft Wizard only estimates a 5% chance of Lance being selected before my next pick. But I know better. This guy might be a value in the eighth round by the time it’s all said and done.
If I’m cursing out my laptop screen during my drafts in the first week of September, it’ll be because I’m being sniped for the rookie 49ers gunslinger while remembering just how big of a steal Lance was in the previous month. I’m trying to get into the habit of snagging him before the double-digit rounds. The Draft Wizard gets mad at me when I do that, so I’ve delayed his selection until the 10th for this mock.
Lance may not start right away for San Francisco, but once he’s inserted into the lineup, his unique rushing ability should instantly vault him into the weekly top 10 quarterbacks. Here’s to hoping Jimmy Garoppolo remains in the picture long enough to keep Lance in range as a draft-day value.
11.08 – Terrace Marshall (WR – CAR)
With Curtis Samuel in Washington, the door is open for rookie WR Terrace Marshall to make an immediate impact by filling Samuel’s vacated role in the Carolina offense. The LSU standout has already made a strong impression in the early days at Panthers camp and represents precisely the kind of upside we’re looking for in a WR5.
A lack of development for Sam Darnold could hinder Marshall’s redraft value, but we’re happy to take the shot on him at this late stage of the draft.
12.07 – Jonnu Smith (TE – NE)
Jonnu feels like a locked-and-loaded dart throw at the tight end position. We should know pretty early in the season how much involvement he’ll have in the Patriots’ offense, but following the money seems like a sensible enough viewpoint. New England paid Smith handsomely in the early stages of free agency, so you could do worse in the 12th round.
13.08 – Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE)
While Lance is the QB I am hoping to deploy for the stretch run of the season, it’s certainly plausible that Jimmy G hangs onto the starting job in San Francisco for the early part of the year. The Cleveland Browns take on Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs in Week 1. I figure Mayfield makes for an intriguing streamer for a game in which his team will likely need to air it out to keep pace.
Mayfield also has some sneaky potential to elevate into the every-week conversation as the leader of a balanced Browns offense. I’m intrigued enough to hold onto him alongside Lance until I can be sure the latter is locked into the 49ers lineup.
14.07 Rondale Moore (WR – AZ)
I included kickers and defenses in the parameters of this mock draft simply to illustrate the point of how unimportant they are. Even if your league uses those positions, there’s no reason to allocate draft picks for them with Week 1 still several weeks away. I’ll draft depth at other positions and wait to see if any of my players get injured–thus becoming eligible for an IL spot on my roster-before picking up a kicker and defense on Sunday morning ahead of Week 1.
Rondale Moore is the perfect dart throw to take with one of these borrowed picks. If his training camp trends poorly and he’s not expected to see the field for Arizona early in the year, you can always drop him for a kicker at the last minute. If things break right for Moore, though, snagging a player with his speed and athleticism this late in the draft will feel like stealing.
15.08 Gerald Everett (TE – SEA)
I don’t usually draft multiple tight ends when planning to stream the position, but Everett feels like a name deserving of more consideration than he’s getting throughout the industry. The starting TE in a Russell Wilson offense has always been a name to monitor for fantasy. The Seahawks specifically targeted Everett in free agency to fill that role under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
Oh, and Waldron’s last stop? He was the passing game coordinator for the Rams, Everett’s previous team. That connection is certainly worth a flier in the last round of your draft.
Draft Wizard Grade: 89 (B+)
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