Fantasy baseball trophies are often won from within the margins.
When thinking back to preseason drafts, most managers will remember the early-round busts and late-round breakouts. However, a savvy gamer does damage between those extremes. While it’s certainly nice to find an electric starter in the last round, you also need to get reasonable value on a handful of mid-draft selections.
By the same token, it stings when a borderline top-100 selection underwhelms, but not in such a demonstrative way that you’re pushed to bench or cut him. Two of the following three players fit that description. The other has performed as well as advertised, if not better.
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Yoán Moncada (3B – CHW): .134 ISO
Putting that ISO into perspective, Moncada ties Garrett Hampson and Miguel Rojas for 108th among all qualified hitters. It was .233 when he blasted 25 homers in 2019.
Marred in a major slump, Moncada has tallied just two extra-base hits (a double and home run) in 63 plate appearances this month. That’s dragged his slugging percentage down to .386 in 108 games this season. Such a low amount for such a promising player is even more concerning considering it’s nearly identical to last year’s middling .385.
Moncada also hasn’t come close to replicating the contact from 2019. He batted .315 with help from a .406 BABIP in that breakout campaign, but the career .258 hitter hasn’t wielded an average higher than .252 — his current mark — in any other season.
He’s also stolen just three bases in five tries after not attempting a single steal in 2020. Put all of this mediocrity together, and he’s batting .243 with 16 home runs, 83 runs, 73 RBIs, and three steals in his last 161 games. And without excelling in any of the five standard categories, Moncada is only the 23rd third baseman on ESPN’s Player Rater this season.
Although he’s been a fantasy bust this season, Moncada is mostly getting a pass because of his real-life value. The 26-year-old has upped his walk rate to a career-high 14.3%, yielding a .367 OBP and his best wRC+ (116) aside from 2019. His .349 xwOBA is only five points lower than his mark two years ago, signaling room for improvement based on some above-average Statcast metrics.
However, it also suggests he played over his head in that career 2019. Moncada hasn’t come close to meeting the lofty hype in any other year, so it’s not imperative to still roster in shallow re-draft mixed leagues.
Dansby Swanson (SS – ATL): 41.6% Pull Rate
Moncada has 10 home runs this season. Swanson has 11 in his last 34 games.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick also entered MLB with plenty of buzz, but Swanson wasn’t touted for power. Instead, scouts lauded his plate approach and speed, expecting a well-rounded performer. After a few mundane seasons, he’s instead morphed into a formidable slugger.
Swanson, who went 7-for-14 with four home runs and 9 RBIs in a three-game series at Washington last week, is batting .265 with 24 home runs, 72 RBIs, and nine steals. He’s leapfrogged Trevor Story as the 10th-ranked shortstop on ESPN’s Player Rater.
This should silence skeptics who doubted his 2020 success, which hardly came from nowhere. Swanson has improved his ISO for the fourth straight season, but this marks his third consecutive year with commendable Statcast metrics:
The major difference this season? He's pulling the ball much more than in previous years. While this caps his batting-average ceiling, he's kept his contact rate (74.5%) close to career tendencies while shrinking 2020's personal-high 26.9% back to a workable 24.4.
This version of Swanson will never broach a .300 average, but the power is legit. It must be the protein from devouring all of the bacon and eggs they had.
Sonny Gray (SP - CIN): 7.22 ERA after All-Star Break
Gray initially looked sharp in his return from a groin injury, posting 15 strikeouts with three runs allowed over a dozen innings against the Cubs and Royals. However, he's since returned from the intermission to surrender 14 walks and 23 runs in the second half. He's already allowed more earned runs in those 28.2 innings than in 62 frames (22 ER) before the All-Star hiatus.
That stretch has inflated his ERA to 4.47 with an unsavory 1.39 WHIP. Many managers expecting a steady SP3 are probably getting antsy. He even got dropped outright in one of my dynasty leagues. Snagging him was an easy decision.
Despite his struggles, Gray has maintained an excellent 28.5% strikeout rate (113 in 90.2 innings). Since 2019, when he collected a career-high 205 punchouts, Gray ranks 15th -- between Brandon Woodruff and Jack Flaherty -- in K rate among all starters with at least 200 IP.
Those strikeouts are a big reason why he maintains a solid 3.71 FIP and 3.74 SIERA this season. His 3.44 xFIP is even lower, as that metric brings his highest HR/FB rate (17.1%) since 2016 closer to the league norm.
A 3.61 xERA also paints a rosier picture because of Gray's propensity to limit hard contact. His 32.6% hard-hit rate, identical to last season's tally, ranks better than 90% of MLB pitchers. His 2.8% barrel rate is even better, tying two 2021 breakout pitchers for the second-lowest mark of all qualified starters, as of Wednesday:
Furthermore, a soft summer schedule works in Gray's favor. Cincinnati doesn't face a team ranked 15th or higher in WRC+ until hosting the Dodgers in a three-game series starting September 17. Their only other games against an above-average offense come with just a two-game trip to Guaranteed Rate Field to face the White Sox -- who will likely have the AL Central clinched -- on September 28 and 29.
Meanwhile, the Reds get nine games against the Pirates next month. Be patient. Sunny days are ahead for Sonny.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
