For this last Statcast Review before the All-Star break, we’re going to do things a bit differently. Instead of focusing on one or two metrics for batters and pitchers, we’re going to take a look at the expected statistics leaderboards for the first half of the season.
Throughout this series, we’ll look at different Statcast metrics for batters and pitchers each week. We’ll talk numbers and what they mean, and I’ll provide some player-specific notes after each section. The metrics themselves will change on a weekly basis, and we’ll circle back to some of our favorites every few weeks to see what trends we can identify.
Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher with questions or feedback anytime.
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Midseason Review
As mentioned above, we’re doing things a bit differently this week. Below, you’ll find three leaderboards for batters and three leaderboards for pitchers covering BA vs. xBA, SLG vs. xSLG, and wOBA vs. xwOBA through the first half of the season.
xBA Leaderboard – Batters
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- Michael Brantley only has five home runs through 63 games, but he's batting .340 with an xBA that suggests the average is legit. He hit five home runs in 46 games last season after swatting 22 dingers with the superballs of 2019. Power and speed aren't really his game, especially at this point in his career, but that doesn't mean he can't help fantasy teams.
- Kyle Tucker is another Astros hitter near the top of this xBA leaderboard, and he is someone we have talked about multiple times already this season. His .323 xBA is significantly better than his actually batting average of .264, and the difference between those two number is one of the biggest in baseball among qualifying hitters.
- Steven Duggar has been a fun story and a popular streaming option in recent weeks, but his .064 BA minus xBA is the highest in baseball.
xSLG Leaderboard - Batters
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- It should surprise no one that Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. are No. 1 and No. 2 in SLG and xSLG, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at No. 3 for both.
- Aaron Judge at No. 4 for xSLG is a bit surprising considering his .523 SLG, but that's a good sign for fantasy managers hoping for a power surge in the second half of the season.
- Cedric Mullins has been one of the best stories of the first half of the season, especially when you consider that he abandoned switch-hitting to focus only on batting from the left side. But he is at the top of the wrong end of this leaderboard, with a .110 SLG minus xSLG (.555 to .445), which is second-worst to the .116 mark Didi Gregorius has. Jared Walsh at No. 3 is another name that fantasy managers won't be thrilled to see here.
xwOBA Leaderboard - Batters
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- Max Muncy has the second-highest xwOBA through the first half, with a .435 number that is 22 points higher than his actual wOBA of .413. That puts him near the top of this list with the aforementioned Guerrero, Ohtani, Judge, and Tatis.
- It's a real bummer that 1. The Angels aren't very good again, and 2. Mike Trout is hurt again. We deserve to see Trout and Ohtani in the playoffs at some point. Finding starters who can actually pitch would be a good next step for the Angels.
- Juan Soto has been good this season, but he hasn't been "Juan Soto-good." His xwOBA (.420) is significantly higher than his .356 wOBA, however, which is an encouraging sign heading into the second half. If you have been thinking about selling Soto, don't.
xBA Leaderboard - Pitchers
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- This brings us to the Jacob deGrom portion of our program. You'll see him at the top of pretty much every list for obvious reasons. I don't think we need to spend too much time discussing why. He's just the best.
- Matt Barnes has been downright special for the Red Sox this season, and his .157 xBA is even better than his .171 BA (we want these numbers to be lower for pitchers, obviously). The Red Sox are surprising everyone this season, and Barnes locking down the ninth inning job in Boston is just one reason why.
- The Brewers already had Brandon Woodruff at the top of their rotation, and everyone was excited about Corbin Burnes coming into the season. But Freddy Peralta has given them a legitimate three-headed monster, and their starting pitching kept them afloat while no one in their lineup was hitting through the first couple of months of the season. If they can supplement that lineup in the second half, the Brewers are going to make some noise and will be a matchup no one wants to see in the postseason.
xSLG Leaderboard - Pitchers
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- Kenley Jansen's xSLG is significantly higher than his SLG, but that's only because his SLG is a ridiculous .156 that is more than 50 points better than any other pitcher in baseball. His .253 xSLG is third in MLB, behind only Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes.
- Griffin Canning has been a favorite of many analysts for a few years now, but he never seems to put everything together. He was recently sent down to the minor leagues in what was probably just a procedural move around the All-Star break, but he hasn't been good this season. His SLG minus xSLG, however, is the third-highest in the league (but his .411 xSLG still isn't great).
- Mets fans and fantasy managers will not be thrilled to see Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker near the bottom of the SLG minus xSLG list, but I'm not overly worried about either of those pitchers, even if some negative regression is in the cards.
xwOBA Leaderboard - Pitchers
Note: This table is multiple pages (see the button on the top right) and is sortable and searchable, so feel free to look around!
Notes
- There are those three names at the top again: Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes, and Matt Barnes.
- Jonathan Loaisiga has been having a strong season for the Yankees and is generating some buzz given Aroldis Chapman's recent struggles. He's worth adding off the waiver wire if you have the roster spot to stash him, but I wouldn't spend anything of value to acquire him. The Yankees aren't going to give up on Chapman easily, and it's not a given they would hand the ninth-inning job to Loaisiga if they did, anyway. His .230 xwOBA is certainly eye-opening, however.
- Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker are at the wrong end of this xwOBA list, too.
- Eduardo Rodriguez appears to finally be turning things around, and his .046 wOBA minus xwOBA is the fifth-highest in MLB. Now, fantasy managers just need him to continue trending in the right direction so that his actual numbers start to match these expected ones.
That's all for this week, friends. See someone above you'd like to talk more about, or just have a general question? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher anytime.
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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.