The following five players have an average draft position (ADP) in point-per-reception (PPR) formats north of pick 140 as of July 5. Featured below are a pair of receivers with completely different profiles, a third-year back who excelled when awarded opportunities last year, and a pair of tight ends who could benefit from no longer playing together.
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Cole Beasley (WR – BUF): 141.5 ADP in PPR formats as of 7/5
Josh Allen‘s massive third-year leap was a boon for Beasley’s fantasy value. According to the Fantasy Leaders page, he finished the 2020 fantasy football season (Week 1 through Week 16) tied for WR29 in PPR per-game scoring.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the veteran slot wideout ranked 21st in receptions (82), 23rd in receiving yards (967), and tied for 30th out of 153 qualified pass-catchers with 9.0 yards per target. His efficiency didn’t end with his rank in yards per target, either. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 104 receivers targeted a minimum of 35 times, he ranked 17th with 2.10 yards per route run.
Beyond the efficiency, Beasley was a key chain-mover and an integral red zone option. Beasley’s 52 receptions for a first down tied for the 17th most among receivers and tight ends, per Sports Info Solutions. As for his red-zone work, he hauled in six of 10 targets, scoring three times in the red zone last year, according to the FantasyPros Red Zone Stats.
Beasley projects to retain an important role in Buffalo’s potent, pass-happy offense. After finishing as a WR3 last year, it’s remarkable he’s being selected as WR53. He doesn’t have a sexy profile. Still, he’s a reliable option for fantasy squads.
Tyler Higbee (TE -LAR): 146.5 ADP
After a breakout 2019 season, Higbee fell well short of expectations last year. He dipped from 4.6 receptions and 48.9 receiving yards per game to 2.9 receptions and 34.7 receiving yards per game. However, he set a new high with 8.7 yards per target and five touchdown receptions.
Could he be in store for a bounce-back, or perhaps an even better season than his 2019 campaign? Maybe! Out of 43 tight ends targeted at least 30 times in 2020, he ranked ninth with 1.62 yards per route run. But, unfortunately, the Rams kept him in to block 21.9% of the time, the second-highest mark among those same 43 tight ends.
The team failed to retain fellow tight end Gerald Everett in free agency. With Everett out of the picture, Higbee could be asked to participate in more routes rather than pass blocking. He should also benefit from the sizable upgrade at quarterback, going from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford. Higbee’s being selected as TE17. However, I view him as a starting-caliber option in 12-team leagues.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC): 152.5 ADP
Mike Williams is the archetype of receiver I’m usually more inclined to draft in best-ball leagues than traditional leagues managed weekly. I am willing to make exceptions, though, and Williams fits the bill.
The big-bodied wideout is a vertical threat in every sense. He’s averaged 16.7 yards per reception for his career. Further, among receivers and tight ends targeted a minimum of 50 times in 2020, Williams had the seventh-deepest average depth of target (14.8 yards), per Sports Info Solutions. Using the same minimum in 2019, he led the way in average depth at 17.3 yards.
Paired with strong-armed second-year quarterback Justin Herbert, Williams has a chance to put it together completely this year. Williams has done a bit of everything yet failed to do so in the same season. In 2018, he scored 10 touchdowns. Although, he averaged only 2.7 receptions and 41.5 receiving yards per game, amassing 664 receiving yards. In 2019, touchdown regression overshot the mark, dragging him down to two touchdown receptions. However, he surpassed 1,000 receiving yards with 1,001, averaging 3.3 receptions and 66.7 receiving yards per game.
Williams’s vertical usage lends itself to the occasional dud. However, the exit of tight end Hunter Henry in free agency could open up more targets for Williams. More targets would increase his floor and ceiling. I view Williams as a borderline top-40 receiver, and he’s being selected as the 55th receiver off the board. He’s a steal.
Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR): 156.0 ADP
I highlighted Darrell Henderson as a must-have running back in early June. In that piece, I acknowledged understanding why gamers love Cam Akers. He was used as a workhorse down the stretch. Still, comparing Akers’s and Henderson’s production side by side revealed Henderson was more productive in many measures.
I’m not going to suggest Henderson’s going to overtake Akers as the top back. In fact, I don’t expect that to be the case. However, Malcolm Brown’s departure in free agency could provide Henderson enough work in a change-of-pace role to have standalone value. Further, he’s an elite handcuff who showcased an RB1 ceiling when used as a workhorse a few times last year. So I’m willing to reach a couple of rounds earlier than his ADP to secure his services.
Gerald Everett (TE – SEA): 191.3 ADP
I’ve been warming up to Gerald Everett as the offseason marches along. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith garnered most of the attention in the free-agent market at tight end, both signing contracts with average annual values of $12.5 million, per Spotrac. The Seahawks quietly committed $6 million to Everett on a one-year deal, all of it guaranteed.
Everett joins Seattle’s new offensive coordinator Shawn Waldron in defecting from the Rams to the Seahawks. Waldron was the Rams’ passing game coordinator, so he’s very familiar with Everett. I don’t believe it’s much of a leap of faith to view Everett’s signing with the Seahawks as an endorsement from Waldron.
Everett’s value was capped with the Rams, playing the same position as Higbee. Now freed with a clearer path to the top of the depth chart, he’s a change-of-scenery breakout candidate. He should also benefit from playing with Russell Wilson, an upgrade from Goff.
The former second-round pick has eye-catching workout metrics, as you can see on his Player Profiler page. Everett has the TE20 ADP in PPR formats. He’s an ideal target for gamers double-dipping on breakout candidates. Further, I also love the idea of drafting him behind an elite tight end — Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle. If he hits as your backup to one of the top options, you’ll have a trade chip who likely has much more value than the running backs, receivers, and quarterbacks being selected in his vicinity.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
