Always begin your Do Not Draft List article with a caveat: the players on this list have fantasy value at some level of investment, just not at their current opportunity cost. However, it remains essential to discover ADP inefficiencies and exploit them in your upcoming drafts. Therein lies the value of these compilations.
Running backs can be league winners, but they can also be ship sinkers. Injuries aside, each new season arrives with the same ole story — RB busts. Below are four cases made for avoiding this quartet of ball carriers in 2021 who, at their current Yahoo Half-PPR ADP, have the potential to make your 2021 fantasy season go awry.
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Jonathan Taylor (RB – Indianapolis Colts) Yahoo ADP 6 | RB6
There isn’t much room for upside when you are the 6th player selected in drafts. Unfortunately, that is the burden facing Jonathan Taylor drafters in 2021. As a rookie in 2020, Taylor exceeded expectations by finishing as the 6th-highest scoring running back in half-PPR formats. He churned out the 8th-most carries (232) but only tied for 29th in RB targets (40). How many other Top 15 RBs finished with 40 or fewer targeted passes in 2020? Three. They were Derrick Henry (RB-TEN), Kenyan Drake (RB-LV), and Nick Chubb (RB-CLE). Another remarkable season without involvement in the passing attack is unlikely for Taylor, and with Nyheim Hines (RB-IND) filling that role (76 targets), a target bump isn’t in the cards.
This takes us to another point of concern from 2020 — Jonathan Taylor’s underwhelming SNAP%. Comparing Taylor to the Top 12 fantasy points per game RB leaders, you can see he isn’t on the field nearly as often as the average RB1 in half-PPR scoring historically plays. Here is a visual of Taylor’s SNAP% versus the average Top 12 scoring RBs SNAP% in 2020:
Jonathan Taylor routinely sported a SNAP% well under other Top 12 HalfPPr Fpts/Gm RBs in 2020.
Do you see this as a NEGATIVE (not enough work to keep up the scoring in ’21) or a POSITIVE (imagine how many more pots he will score if he plays 65% of snaps in ’21)? #fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/OolD4GoGck
– Aaron Pags (@FantasyTriage) July 7, 2021
Hines “vultured” more than 33% of the running back snaps from Taylor last season in 12 of 16 Weeks, but he wasn’t the only member of the backfield to snipe work from JT. The Colts unleashed Jordan Wilkins (RB-IND) into the committee on more than 20% of the snaps in five different contests. Now, in 2021, Marlon Mack (RB-IND) is working back from an Achilles injury to depress Taylor’s workload upside further. Between the subpar snap numbers and limited catch ceiling, Jonathan Taylor finishing as a Top 6 RB again feels much more like a gamble than a certainty. Gamble in the late rounds, not with your first selection.
D’Andre Swift (RB – Detroit Lions) Yahoo ADP 31 | RB18
Not often is quarterback play directly related to the fantasy success of a running back. However, it was the case in Detroit in 2020. Swift accumulated 43% of his 166.8 fantasy points directly via his connection with Matthew Stafford (QB-LAR), who is now in Los Angeles. The Lions, with Stafford, threw to their RBs 19% of the time, besting the majority of NFL teams at that rate. Meanwhile, new Detroit signal-caller Jared Goff (QB-DET) targeted his running backs just 71 times. Only Lamar Jackson (QB-BAL) and Ryan Tannehill (QB-TEN) attempted passes to their backfield fewer times than Goff.
Goff’s reluctance to use his backs in the passing game takes a chip out of Swift’s RB2 armor. But there is more bad news for his truthers, Detroit added 25-year-old veteran Jamaal Williams (RB-DET) in free agency. Since Williams has been in town, offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has taken every opportunity to praise his new “A” back. Lynn, a believer in RBBC, crushes any hope of D’Andre Swift as a bell cow. As a result, Swift will have difficulty finishing in the Top 50 overall, let alone beating his Yahoo ADP of 31. The RB in Detroit with the highest return on investment will be Williams at RB46/125 OVR.
Chase Edmonds (RB – Arizona Cardinals) Yahoo ADP 62 | RB26
Kenyan Drake (RB-LV) was a thorn in the side of Chase Edmonds’ fantasy breakout in Arizona last year. Drake robbed Edmonds of 56 carries and nine touchdowns with his 40% carry share inside the red zone. In comparison, Chase saw just 15 carries and 46 rushing yards after the Cardinals crossed their opponent’s 20-yard line. This year, Drake has exited, but the Birds brought in a new vulture, James Conner (RB-ARI). Another RB who will minimize Edmonds’ chances at any monster weeks in 2021. Conner, a shell of his former self, still got it done around the goal in 2020 for the Steelers. Inside the ten for New York last year, James Conner hit for five touchdowns on 14 carries — efficiency in the role. A role the Cards will give him a chance to succeed at again in 2021.
Additionally, Chase Edmonds had 14 or fewer touches in every game he played last season except for one. It will be a massive leap if Arizona puts the ball in his hands enough times weekly to finish as an RB2.
Lastly, only two running backs finished in the Top 50 in half-PPR whose receiving TDs accounted for more than 15% of their total fantasy points: Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU) and Chase Edmonds. So don’t be tricked into thinking there’s value to be had with Edmonds just because Drake is gone. Touchdown regression is around the corner too.
Zack Moss (RB – Buffalo Bills) Yahoo ADP 105 | RB38
If inefficiency and one-dimensional had a fantasy football face, it would be Zack Moss’. Our advanced stats highlight his ineptitude in 2020. Moss averaged just 1.8 yards before the first contact per rushing attempt. Only five Top 40 running backs were worse at getting downfield without being hit: Todd Gurley (RB-FA), Leonard Fournette (RB-TB), Mike Davis (RB-ATL), Giovani Bernard (RB-TB), and Moss’ teammate Devin Singletary (RB-BUF). Not exactly a list to be thrilled about being on.
One thing Zack Moss can’t claim that those other plodders could — involvement in the passing game. Josh Allen (QB-BUF) targeted Moss just 18 times. Those missing receiving points won’t help him climb into weekly FLEX consideration in half-PPR formats.
Finally, with Allen as the de facto goal-line back, there aren’t even weekly hopes of a multi-TD scoring outbreak. Seeing Moss finish in the Top 100 in 2021 would be as likely as a Bills home game without a single broken table.
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Aaron Pags is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Aaron, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyTriage.
