You may be fortunate enough to nab safe options like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, and Ezekiel Elliott to start your draft. But at some point, every fantasy manager is faced with the difficult choice of considering players whose risk equals their upside. The decisions that you make during your draft will heavily determine whether you hoist the trophy in January or hang your head in shame after missing the playoffs. As such, it would be best to think twice about taking the athletes our featured analysts are looking to pass on at their current expert consensus ranking and pay attention to who they want to roster instead.
Dominate with our award-winning fantasy football draft software 
Q1. Which RB comes with the most risk at his current ranking and which player(s) would you rather draft with a lower ranking at his position?
D’Andre Swift (DET): Consensus Rank – RB17
“We’ve started to see Swift’s ECR tick down a couple of spots as the offseason has progressed, but I think there’s still room for it to fall. This offense in Detroit is going to be absolutely atrocious and Swift’s will essentially have to split work with Jamaal Williams. As far as a player I would prefer to have over him, Travis Etienne‘s at the top of the list because of what role he’ll occupy in this Jaguars’ offense. Etienne’s going to be HEAVILY targeted as a receiver, while also assuming some work on the ground as a traditional RB. With his home-run ability also playing into it, I believe Etienne has more upside.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
“I want D’Andre Swift to be a thing, but the Lions don’t, so he’s too risky to draft around his current ADP. Detroit’s offseason foretells a desire to play conservative and slow, and we don’t know exactly how much he will be asked to share the ball with Jamaal Williams. I’d much rather wait to draft Chase Edmonds. He’s facing his own nebulous timeshare with James Conner, but the Cardinals’ offense should play fast enough and offer enough touchdown-scoring opportunities to mitigate the workload concerns for Edmonds.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
J.K. Dobbins (BAL): Consensus Rank – RB16
“The goals of your first several picks should be selecting players that offer both high weekly floors with massive upside. While Dobbins does offer a high floor as the lead back in the run-first Ravens offense, I have a hard time seeing a clear path to high-end RB1 production, something you’d expect from a player at his ADP. Gus Edwards will be heavily involved on early downs and Baltimore simply does not target their running backs. Ravens running backs were targeted a meager 51 times in 2020, something I do not see changing in 2021. I would much rather draft D’Andre Swift or Chris Carson slightly later or wait a couple rounds and take Myles Gaskin, Travis Etienne, or Javonte Williams.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
Cam Akers (LAR): Consensus Rank – RB11
“We can’t ignore how the first 11 weeks of last season played out when we all were expecting Akers to be one of the top rookie running backs. He was definitely successful when eventually given the lead role, but he’s being drafted as an RB1 based on what is essentially three dominant games, two of which consisted of Darrell Henderson being on injured reserve. While Malcolm Brown may no longer be there, Henderson still is, and he will still be involved. The Rams didn’t give up two firsts and a third (and Goff) to watch Stafford hand the ball off thirty times a game. I would prefer to draft Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire instead.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Jonathan Taylor (IND): Consensus Rank – RB7
“It’s Taylor for me. When drafting a running back in the first round, you need someone who’s going to be a three-down workhorse for his team. Taylor may be a talented running back, but it seems many have forgotten that some were dropping him halfway through last season. His late-season schedule was just as beneficial as David Montgomery, who is falling until the RB20-22 range. Rather than taking Taylor, it’d be safer drafting a running back like Najee Harris or Joe Mixon, who will be on the field as much as they want.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Q2. Which WR comes with the most risk at his current ranking and which player(s) would you rather draft with a lower ranking at his position?
Chris Godwin (TB): Consensus Rank – WR15
“I’m not likely to end up with Godwin if this is where his ADP ends up. Again, it’s not because he’s not a good football player — he is — but rather the competition for targets in Tampa Bay. We know Mike Evans is going to finish as a top-15 wide receiver — he always does — and we know that Tom Brady loves both Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. There are only so many pass attempts to go around each game, and it’s the reason Godwin never topped 100 yards during the 2020 fantasy season. I’d rather have Julio Jones, who could very well be a similar version of Stefon Diggs last year, who went to an offense that was perceived to be throwing the ball less, when in fact, they threw more because they got Diggs.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
D.J. Moore (CAR): Consensus Rank – WR19
“The obvious reason is Sam Darnold. Of course, it is possible that Darnold finally finds himself and can be a good NFL quarterback with the new supporting cast, but we would still be asking for a lot. He already has some chemistry with Robby Anderson, so when the ball isn’t in the hands of Christian McCaffrey, Anderson could be the one he looks for. Moore will most likely be seeing the majority of the opposing team’s No. 1 cornerback, and Darnold may not want to take many chances going that direction. Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, Tee Higgins, and Courtland Sutton are a few of the players I would draft instead.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Kenny Golladay (NYG): Consensus Rank – WR23
“Golladay changed teams this offseason, so tabbing him as a player to fade is low-hanging fruit, but somebody’s got to pick it. Matthew Stafford to Daniel Jones is a major quarterback downgrade, and the Giants will present more competition for touches than the Lions did for Golladay in recent seasons. I’m routinely passing on him in my drafts in favor of Tyler Lockett, Odell Beckham Jr., Robby Anderson, and even Mike Williams, all of whom are available later and have clearer paths to locked-in targets and efficiency.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs)
Mike Evans (TB): Consensus Rank – WR13
“Evans being valued at WR13 in ECR is a little bit too rich for me. With this crowded offense that’s adding Gio Bernard and bringing O.J. Howard back into the mix, the fight for targets is going to be something to behold. Evans’ ranking doesn’t take into account any of his inconsistencies from last season and it’s hard to see how he can return that value. As for a player I would prefer over him, Robert Woods is going later on in drafts and I’d love to have him on my roster this season. With Matthew Stafford now at QB, this offense could truly explode this upcoming season and there’s less competition for targets at the top of that depth chart.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Corey Davis (NYJ): Consensus Rank – WR43
“Davis generated a fair amount of buzz in the early offseason thanks to signing a three-year, 37.5 million dollar contract, presumably to become the go-to receiver in the Jets’ offense. That buzz started to wear off some with the re-signing of Jamison Crowder along with Elijah Moore’s glowing reports out of minicamp. Despite this, Davis’ ranking has been slow to correct itself, making him a risky pick at his current ranking. Laviska Shenault, Michael Gallup, and Darnell Mooney are just three players I would target at their cost over Davis.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)
Thank you to the experts for giving us their high-risk players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
