Today we’re taking a look at overvalued and undervalued players according to our expert consensus rankings.

Note that readers can find our 0.5 PPR expert consensus rankings (ECR) by clicking here.

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Q1. Which player do you think is most overvalued by the Expert Consensus?

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) Overall ECR: 4
I’m a big fan of Kamara. The man single handedly won a lot of fantasy leagues last season. He’s an electrifying player with the ball in his hands and is incredibly efficient. That being said, I don’t believe he can return value on his ADP this upcoming season for a few reasons. First, Drew Brees made his living via dump offs and short passes to Kamara. This cannot be said for either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. Kamara has caught 81 or more passes for his entire career, and it’s hard to imagine him getting to that milestone this year with either QB. Secondly, I believe this offense takes a step back as a whole. While Brees was on his last legs for the past two seasons, he was insanely efficient and knew how to run an offense. Hill is a gadget player who’s best skill is running the ball, and Winston has a turnover problem that hopes to be fixed. You also have Latavius Murray on the team who will get his touches each game. All of this makes it hard to see Kamara paying off his price tag. Some players I rather take a chance on are Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)

Michael Thomas (WR – NO) Overall ECR: 24
Thomas was arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL from 2018 to 2019 — tallying 332 targets, 274 receptions, 3,130 receiving yards, and 18 touchdowns. He was the beneficiary of playing with Drew Brees, who threw the football as accurately as any quarterback in the NFL. Brees completed 74.4 percent of his passes in 2018 and 74.3 percent of his passes in 2019. Thomas had a lost 2020 season due to deltoid and ankle injuries, but in the seven games he played, he wasn’t stellar. He tallied just 55 targets, 40 receptions, 438 receiving yards, and no touchdowns. He did not have much chemistry with Taysom Hill, who may be the starting quarterback this year. Even if Jameis Winston is the starter, he has a career completion percentage of 61.4 percent and would be a detriment to Thomas in fantasy. Thomas also punched C.J. Gardner-Johnson in practice, which led to the Saints holding him out in Week 5 and sparked rumors that he was going to be traded before the 2020 deadline. Given everything that happened last year and his uncertain quarterback situation, one would think Thomas being the 98th ranked fantasy wide receiver last year would have some impact on his 2021 ranking. Thomas is still the 9th ranked fantasy wide receiver and 24th ranked player. While Thomas should be expected to rebound, I have a hard time ranking him as a third-round pick and a WR1. I think he is much closer to a low-end WR2 worthy of a fourth-round pick. There is just too much risk to justify picking him as high as his current ranking.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Kenny Golladay (WR – NYG) Overall ECR: 56
This is too much of a premium to pay for a receiver who has not averaged higher than a 58.8 percent catch rate throughout his career, which includes his 2019 Pro-Bowl season with Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions. Daniel Jones has incrementally improved his overall game since entering the league in 2019, but he only completed 62.5 percent of his passes in 2020, finishing with an atrocious 11 TD: 10 INT stat line while failing to surpass 3,000 passing yards. The return of All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley will help take some of the pressure off of Jones via dump-offs and screen passes but Golladay no longer has Stafford under center, which means he will need to build chemistry with a less-talented quarterback. Golladay will also be competing for targets amongst a surprisingly deep Giants’ wide receiving corps that includes first-round rookie Kadarius Toney and third-year wideout Darius Slayton, who commanded 96 targets in 2020. Fantasy managers should wait until the sixth round and instead draft either Bengals’ rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase or second-year potential breakout candidate Tee Higgins. They are featured in a pass-heavy offense with a more talented quarterback in Joe Burrow, which allows you to land a WR3 with WR1 upside. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are two phenomenal dual-threat quarterbacks that are simply too valuable to pass up on in the back of the fifth-round. Golladay is only one year removed from a Pro-Bowl season but I do not believe he offers WR1 upside in a crowded offense with an underwhelming quarterback, making him one of the most overvalued players according to the latest expert consensus rankings.
– Matt MacKay (@Matt_MacKay_)

Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here

Q2. Which player do you think is most undervalued by the Expert Consensus?

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) Overall ECR: 50
Kupp is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the league and I don’t believe we are factoring in the quarterback upgrade with Matthew Stafford. Kupp has back-to-back 90 catch campaigns and I could easily see him crossing the 100-catch mark with Stafford. The Rams will be throwing a lot this season and Kupp will be the main target for Stafford in the slot. I strongly believe that we could get a season similar to his 2019 campaign when he went for 94-1,161-10. This offense will be more efficient overall and will have more scoring opportunities with Stafford under center. This should mean plenty of red zone trips, which could lead to a career year for Kupp. He’s currenty the WR21 on Fantasy Pros, and that’s just too low for someone who could post WR1 numbers in 2021.
– Connor Rigg (@ConbonNFL)

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) Overall ECR: 31
I think the casual NFL fan would assume that because the Detroit Lions were 5-11 last year and fired their head coach, that there is not much to like about this roster and the Lions are in a complete overhaul. One area of their team that was not a problem was the offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked their unit as the 13th best unit in the league and the addition of Penei Sewell as the seventh pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has them ranked 10th headed into this season. This is a stellar offensive line and Swift had an underrated campaign last year with 160 touches, 878 yards from scrimmage, and 10 touchdowns. He is only 22-years old and should be in for an uptick in touches now that Matt Patricia is not there to give Adrian Peterson 156 attempts. I think Swift is going to have a much bigger role in the offense this year and behind this underrated offensive line, he should be ranked much higher than the 16th running back and 31st overall player. I think he will be much closer to an RB1 and worthy of an early to middle of the second-round pick. His ability as a receiver and his touchdown scoring ability behind that offensive line should make him an upside play in fantasy in 2021.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) Overall ECR: 59
The Seattle Seahawks refreshed their offense this offseason, hiring former Los Angeles Rams’ passing game coordinator Shane Waldron to replace Brian Schottenheimer as the new offensive coordinator. In 2020, former Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff totaled the ninth-highest number of passing attempts (552) under Waldron, which is a great sign for Russell Wilson. Wilson totaled 558 attempts himself in 2020 despite playing in a run-centric offense that often stalled out on drives due to lackluster pass-protection. Fantasy managers are undervaluing Lockett as a result of the boom or bust games, which resulted from an inconsistent offense that failed to adhere to a specific philosophy, shifting from “Let Russ Cook” to force-feeding carries to under-qualified and inexperienced running backs due to Chris Carson‘s injuries. Despite the adversity stemming from Schottenheimer’s play-calling, Lockett and D.K. Metcalf both finished as WR1s in 2020, with Lockett boasting a higher targets per snap percentage (14%) than Metcalf, who averaged 13.2 percentage of targets per snap. Lockett and Metcalf both eclipsed 10 targets three times each in 2020 and should have more opportunities in a Waldron-led offense that includes underrated rookie wide receiving prospect D’Wayne Eskridge. The second-round rookie wideout will force defenders to direct their attention to him, whether in the slot or on the perimeter, allowing Lockett to use his 4.35 speed to continue burning defensive backs while seeing more consistent usage in a newly revamped offense. Metcalf is being drafted at his ceiling (WR6) while Lockett is falling to fantasy managers in the back of the fifth-round as the WR24. Take advantage of the industry fade on Lockett and you’ll secure a proven WR1 as a low-end WR2 for the 2021 season.
– Matt MacKay (@Matt_MacKay_)

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