First things first a huge THANK YOU to Corbin Young for pinch-hitting last weekend. If for some reason you aren’t already, make sure you’re following Corbin (@corbin_young21). Onto the article!
School is out, camps are in session, and the dog days of summer have officially arrived. This is the time of year where a lot of fantasy baseball players begin to check out, which means it’s time for us to either A) make up ground or B) extending our leads in the standings. Keeping our eyes and ears to the ground is more important than ever right now, so let’s break it all down with an eye towards Week 14.
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1. Offense is here
As expected. June was a bloodbath for offenses wreaking havoc over pitchers. This is typically the case as the weather around the country begins to warm up, but a lack of sticky substances may have shifted the balance of power even more. Consider this: In April league-wide BABIP checked in at .283 with the HR/FB rate at 13.4%. In May we had a .292 BABIP with a 13.1% HR/FB. In June? A .294 BABIP with a 14.5% HR/FB. This is going to hurt the “mid tier” range of SPs, and it means we need to make sure our fantasy teams have enough offense to keep up moving forward.
2. An Andrew Vaughn surge?
I’m adding this note in on Saturday morning before publish, but after Friday’s two-hit game the White Sox rookie now has four multi-hit contests in a row — a span in which he has two homers. The most encouraging part of this development is that a lot of this recent success has come against right-handed pitchers, which has been Vaughn’s kyrptonite in the majors. We’ve been fooled once already by a surge like this earlier this season, but it’s a situation to monitor in leagues where Vaughn’s available.
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu‘s sneaky-tough matchup
The 34-year-old southpaw has now been hit hard in three of his past six starts, including each of the past two. Over his past 10 2/3 innings Ryu has allowed eight earned runs with a 5:4 K:BB ratio. For a season spanning 30+ starts this could just wind up being a blip on the radar, but all of Ryu’s metrics are headed in the wrong direction. His strikeout rate is down, the hard-hit rate is up, and he’s walking more batters as of late. Meantime, Ryu’s Week 14 opponent, the Orioles, has the third highest OPS against lefties in 2021. In a shallow league it might be worth sitting him until we see some better results.
4. Tommy Pham‘s spot in the Padres’ order
The veteran outfielder was highlighted in this article back in late-May as a “buy low” option. Since May 26th (arbitrary endpoint but also my birthday!) Pham is batting .353/.449/.603 with seven homers and seven stolen bases. That’s good for a 189 wRC+. The icing on the cake is that he has led off every game he has started during this time. Locked into a fantasy friend role while producing at a great clip? Yes please. San Diego plays seven games in Week 14.
5. Keston Hiura‘s sustainability
In 33 plate appearances since being recalled (again), Hiura is batting .296/.394/.667 with three homers and 11 RBI. It’s very exciting and there seems to be a minor swing change that could be helping him this time around. Additionally, Hiura’s biggest problem earlier this year was the high fastball. Perhaps a lack of sticky stuff can help make those pitches easier to catch up with. Add it all together and this is a talented player who many of us want to believe in. Milwaukee plays seven games in Week 14. I’m dying for Hiura to establish himself as an every-week starter.
6. Charlie Morton‘s curveball usage
The veteran right-hander has always thrown his best pitches at a high rate, but after a slow start to the season he’s taking it to the extreme as of late. Through June 11th he was throwing curves 33.7% of the time. In the three starts since then he has upped that usage to 42.5% of the time. He has basically eliminated his sinker, and during this stretch Morton has allowed just three earned runs in 20 2/3 frames. Oh, and he has a 25:3 K:BB. He pitches against the Marlins on Sunday before drawing them again in Week 14.
7. Joey Gallo‘s surge
Aside from Kyle Schwarber, perhaps no hitter has benefitted more from the change in offensive environment than Gallo. Entering the weekend he has a staggering seven homers over his past five games. The season-long OPS is up to .849 and he’s back to must-start status for those who had been benching him at times during the struggles. Texas draws Detroit and Oakland for a total of six games in Week 14.
8. Aroldis Chapman‘s grip on the closer role
Over his past eight appearances the hard-throwing lefty has pitched 5 2/3, a span in which he has given up eight runs (three homers) while posting a 6:8 K:BB ratio. With sticky stuff outlawed in the league, it’s a concerning development. Chapman was never really seen as a violator, and perhaps this is just a rough patch, but the connection is tough to ignore. Regardless, Chapman might lose a save opportunity or two moving forward, but I don’t believe the Yankees will go away from him entirely — as least not yet. Jonathan Loaisiga and Chad Green would theoretically be next in line if a switch is made.
9. Road Rockies
It’s time for this week’s check-in on Coors Field. The Rockies are playing six road games coming off a home stand, which means we don’t want to rely on their hitters. Brendan Rodgers appears to be breaking out, though the playing time situation is frustrating. There isn’t a lot to discuss here. Week 14 isn’t one to stream Rockies bats.
10. Hunter Renfroe versus three lefties
If you ARE looking for a hitter to stream, consider Renfroe. The Mike Trout lookalike should have already been rostered in your league, but he needs to be started in Week 14. Since the beginning of May he’s batting .305/.359/.547 with 11 homers, 35 RBI, and 37 runs scored. He’s locked into Boston’s No. 6 spot in the lineup on a daily basis, but he still performs a log better against southpaws. The Red Sox face three lefties next week.
11. Jarren Duran watch
The fantasy baseball community (myself included) got pretty excited on Friday afternoon when news came out that Duran wasn’t on Team USA’s roster for the Tokyo Olympics. The 24-year-old helped his country qualify for the games earlier this year, and his participation could’ve delayed the inevitable big league promotion. While it’s nice to have the confirmation that he won’t head to Japan, this still doesn’t mean a call-up is imminent. The Red Sox reportedly want to have the option to call him up once they’re ready, and playing in the Olympics would’ve complicated things. Still, Duran continues to rake in Triple-A Worcester. The second there’s an opening in Boston (whether it be due to an injury or under performance), they’ll make the move. Duran should be stashed in 12-team leagues where managers have a bench spot to spare.
12. Adam Wainwright‘s last dance
Set to turn 40 in August, “Waino” is on a roll. The veteran hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs over any of his past five starts and he continues to pitch deep into games. Since May 15th he has lowered his ERA from 4.63 all the way down to 3.49. In a season where most starters aren’t giving fantasy managers consistent workloads, Wainwright’s innings “count” more than others, especially for roto leagues. He draws the Giants in Week 14, but he has earned must-start status due to his recent results.
13. Sandy Alcantara‘s sinker usage
We’ve been seeing a lot of pitchers adjust to the new foreign substance rules by changing their pitch mix. Alcantra sticks out in this regards. Entering “Week 1” of the new rules, Alcantra had thrown his sinker 29.3% of the time. In the two starts since? It has checked in at 50% and 46%. Meanwhile, he has virtually eliminated his four-seam fastball, which has seen a big drop in spin rate. It appears as if Alcantra’s counter to the new rules is to double down on a sinker-heavy approach. The results have been mixed so there isn’t an obvious action item to take away from this, but it bears watching. He draws the Braves on Saturday before taking on the Dodgers in Week 14.
14. The return of Franmil Reyes
As I type this on Friday afternoon, the beefy slugger has actually been reinstated from the injured list prior to tonight’s game. Week 14 will be fantasy managers’ first opportunity to insert him into weekly lineups, however. Reyes wound up missing about six weeks due to his oblique injury, but he should be activated right away. Already hitting the cover off the ball before going down, Reyes could certainly benefit even more from the new offensive environment.
15. Gerrit Cole‘s fastball location
Yes, he was hit hard in his most recent start against the Red Sox. Yes, it’s easy to laugh and poke fun now that he doesn’t have his magical sticky stuff. But it’s worth pointing out that his spin rates weren’t down all that much in Sunday’s “Boston Massacre.” Cole is still able to generate whiffs, but he’s having some serious control/command issues. As evidenced in the image below, he also has no “rise” on his fastball. Way too many of those four-seamers were left over the heart of the plate. In 31 innings since MLB announced their intentions to crack down on things, Cole has a 4.65 ERA through 31 frames — a spin in which he has allowed nine homers and eight walks. Hope isn’t entirely lost just yet, but he’s going to need to figure some things out. Avoiding middle-middle fastballs seems like a good place to start.
16. Start German Marquez? Yes!
The 26-year-old was absolutely lit up for eight earned runs back on June 12th. In the 23 innings since (three starts) he’s 3-0 while allowing just one run on four hits. Go figure. Yes, the aforementioned blowup really hurt in roto leagues, but Marquez has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. That’s pretty remarkable. He faces the Cardinals on Sunday (at home) before drawing the Padres in Week 14 (on the road).
17 – 18. Snubbed All-Star starters
In classic MLB fashion the league announced the starting roster for this summer’s midseason classic on a random Thursday night to little fanfare. Sigh. The bigger disappointment? Neither Bryan Reynolds nor Cedric Mullins were voted in as starters. Mullins might still wind up getting the nod since Mike Trout (calf) won’t play. Reynolds, on the other hand, wasn’t even one of the six outfield “finalists” for a starting bid. All he has done is hit .312 with a .934 OPS while ranking seventh among all MLB position players in bWAR (3.5). Both Mullins and Reynolds have been fantasy superstars over the first half of the ’21 campaign.
19. Shohei Ohtani‘s MVP run
All we do is talk about how incredible it is what Ohtani is doing, but it really needs to be stressed how unbelievable this season is. Even when he came over from Japan I truly never thought he’d have a year like this. Ohtani was shelled for seven earned runs in his most recent start at Yankee Stadium, but he still has a 3.60 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 60 innings for the year. His hitting stats are already MVP worthy, but add in what he provides with his arm in addition to giving the Angels invaluabel roster flexibility, and even I, TooMuchTuma, the biggest Vlad Jr fan there is, has to admit the MVP is his to lose entering July.
20. Hitters continuing to struggle
With offense up across the board right now, fantasy managers should be particularly worried about hitters who still haven’t turned it around. Names that come to mind are Gleyber Torres, Eugenio Suarez, Alec Bohm, Dom Smith, and Jorge Soler.
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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.