Tonight’s main slate includes eight games. It’s a Jacob deGrom night, and he headlines the pitcher rankings. He’s joined by a pair of mid-tier arms and another ace. As a result, the touted stacks are deGrom-salary friendly, and the core studs and value plays/punts are comprised of players from tonight’s top stacks.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Build around Jacob deGrom. That's it. That's the strategy. Snark aside, he's listed as the top cash games recommendation, but he's easily also the top GPP option. The second cash games recommendation, Anthony DeSclafani, is only a DraftKings option in that format as the SP2 behind deGrom. Ian Anderson is underpriced and chock full of upside, making him a GPP option at both daily fantasy providers. Finally, Zack Wheeler is a risky pivot from deGrom, with the risk coming from fading New York's ace rather than any of his own shortcomings. Interestingly, if you stack the two forthcoming value stacks together, it's possible to use deGrom and Wheeler together -- a high-upside GPP move I support.
Tonight’s main slate includes eight games. It’s a Jacob deGrom night, and he headlines the pitcher rankings. He’s joined by a pair of mid-tier arms and another ace. As a result, the touted stacks are deGrom-salary friendly, and the core studs and value plays/punts are comprised of players from tonight’s top stacks.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Build around Jacob deGrom. That's it. That's the strategy. Snark aside, he's listed as the top cash games recommendation, but he's easily also the top GPP option. The second cash games recommendation, Anthony DeSclafani, is only a DraftKings option in that format as the SP2 behind deGrom. Ian Anderson is underpriced and chock full of upside, making him a GPP option at both daily fantasy providers. Finally, Zack Wheeler is a risky pivot from deGrom, with the risk coming from fading New York's ace rather than any of his own shortcomings. Interestingly, if you stack the two forthcoming value stacks together, it's possible to use deGrom and Wheeler together -- a high-upside GPP move I support.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Jacob deGrom (NYM) vs. CHC
There's no reason to overthink this. Oddsmakers and bettors certainly aren't. Betting Pros consensus lists the Mets as -245 favorites with a game total of only 6.0 runs. According to FanGraphs, in 10 starts spanning 64.0 innings, deGrom's owned hitters to the tune of a 0.56 ERA, 1.59 SIERA, 0.53 WHIP, 3.6 BB%, 46.2 K%, and 34.7 CSW%. You can fade him at your own risk. I will not be doing so.
Anthony DeSclafani (SF) vs. ARI
A change of scenery has done wonders for DeSclafani. In 13 starts stretched across 75.2 innings, he's spun a 3.09 ERA, 4.11 SIERA, 7.0 BB%, 22.1 K%, and 27.3 CSW%. He and the Giants are listed as -160 favorites, and the matchup is a plus, too. The Diamondbacks rank tied for 26th in wRC+ (84) against righties, 29th in wRC+ (72) over the last 30 days, and 28th in wRC+ (76) on the road this year.
GPP Recommendations:
Ian Anderson (ATL) vs. BOS
Anderson was electric as a rookie in 2020, and he's pitched at a high level this year. In all, he has a 2.83 ERA, 3.88 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.7 BB%, 25.1 K%, and 28.8 CSW% in 18 starts totaling 98.2 innings in his young career (excluding his postseason work). Anderson and the host Braves are -145 favorites, and the matchup, while challenging, isn't necessarily as difficult as it seems.
The Red Sox rank tied for eighth in wRC+ (104) against righties. However, they're in a funk, ranking tied for 22nd in wRC+ (89) with an exploitable 26.7 K% over the last 30 days. So there's an upside to using Anderson.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) at LAD
Sure, deGrom's pitching at a historically great level. However, you shouldn't allow that to completely overshadow how great Wheeler's been this year, recording a 2.29 ERA, 2.84 SIERA, 0.90 WHIP, 5.2 BB%, 32.4 K%, and 29.5 CSW%. He's piling up innings to boot, throwing 90.1 of them in 13 starts. I will have at least one DraftKings GPP roster featuring both deGrom and Wheeler.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Astros have a gaudy implied total as -233 favorites in a game with a commanding 8.5 runs total. It's easy to understand why. Jordan Lyles is rubbish. He has a 5.37 ERA in 13 starts this year. The Astros are easily my favorite stack. Although, I'm willing to dump some of their big boppers to accommodate stacking them around deGrom.
Bailey Ober has dominated in the minors. He's only $4,600 on DraftKings in a plus matchup, so I suspect he'll be a popular SP2 option there. However, he was a ho-hum prospect, ranking 22nd for the Twins at FanGraphs before the season. Although, he's throwing significantly harder in his limited big-league time than his scouting report. Still, that's relative, as his average fastball velocity is 92.3 mph. He also isn't a big bat-misser. Given that, I think there's an opportunity to leverage him possibly being over rostered at DraftKings by stacking against him. To be clear, I also like this stack at FanDuel.
Robert Stock is getting a spot-start for the Cubs. He's a 31-year-old pitcher who's spent the bulk of his career in the minors. He's also compiled all 63.2 innings in the bigs in relief, making his mediocre 4.24 ERA even less impressive. Even an injury-depleted Mets' lineup is in the mix for stacking given a non-threatening matchup and their respective salaries.
- Yuli Gurriel is ripping righties for a .382 OBP and 138 wRC+ this year.
- Jose Altuve isn't matching Gurriel's on-base prowess with a .340 OBP, but he's hit for more thump in same-handed matchups, amassing a .209 ISO. In all, he has a 123 wRC+ against righties this season. I'm not crazy about using Altuve on FanDuel. However, I like him on DraftKings.
- Alex Bregman's having an underwhelming season against righties. However, he slots third in a lineup expected to hang a crooked number. The inverse of what I said with Altuve is true. I prefer Bregman on FanDuel, and I'd rather look elsewhere at the hot corner on DraftKings.
- Michael Brantley has a track record of success against righties. Yet, he's really raking against them this year, amassing a .426 OBP and 171 wRC+.
- Billy McKinney has useful power with the platoon advantage. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has a .223 ISO against righties since debuting in The Show in 2018. That's even higher at a .262 ISO this year.
- J.P. Crawford has been leading off of late for the Mariners. He's largely a lineup-spot-driven suggestion.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
Fitting value around deGrom is the plan for hitting tonight, which means nabbing some bargains from the Mariners and Mets. Squeezing some Astros in as well is a focus. Brantley, Crawford, and McKinney are the three hitters I anticipate having the most exposure to.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.