Thirteen games await us on Friday as we have a nearly full slate to attack. Normally, this would leave us with a handful of expensive pitching options to consider.
Not this time.
Only two pitchers on either site — DraftKings or FanDuel — cost more than $10,000, and we are going to need to decide quickly if it will be worth paying the premium.
Elsewhere, we have a few offenses that have gone dark and are now undervalued as well as the hottest team in baseball battling both regression and weather.
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Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two no-hitter-driven storylines meet on Friday, and they combine to produce the highest-priced pitcher of the evening. This combination is Carlos Rodon -- who threw a no-hitter against Cleveland earlier in the season -- against the Mariners -- who have been no-hit twice already. I won't go as far as expecting another historic night, but Seattle has failed offensively plenty of times. It's also one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. I'll start my lineup by paying up for Rodon, even though I suspect many others will do the same.
Thirteen games await us on Friday as we have a nearly full slate to attack. Normally, this would leave us with a handful of expensive pitching options to consider.
Not this time.
Only two pitchers on either site — DraftKings or FanDuel — cost more than $10,000, and we are going to need to decide quickly if it will be worth paying the premium.
Elsewhere, we have a few offenses that have gone dark and are now undervalued as well as the hottest team in baseball battling both regression and weather.
Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Two no-hitter-driven storylines meet on Friday, and they combine to produce the highest-priced pitcher of the evening. This combination is Carlos Rodon -- who threw a no-hitter against Cleveland earlier in the season -- against the Mariners -- who have been no-hit twice already. I won't go as far as expecting another historic night, but Seattle has failed offensively plenty of times. It's also one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. I'll start my lineup by paying up for Rodon, even though I suspect many others will do the same.
I always point out major discrepancies in pricing between DraftKings and FanDuel, and Tony Gonsolin is the perfect example. FanDuel tends to weigh matchups higher than the pitchers' expectations, but this gap is cavernous. As usual, one of the two websites will be right, and I'd rather take the risk on FanDuel for a lower price than burn more salary on DraftKings. Ultimately, I'm probably staying away on both websites, but there is an edge to exploit in that he will likely be under-owned for his price on DraftKings.
Sticking with the theme of popularity, Alex Manoah at a slight discount against Baltimore is definitely going to get some attention. I get it, and I can justify it, but this might be a make-or-break setup where he either dominates the Orioles and carries a lineup to a win or struggles and sinks a large number of entries. Despite how much I like Manoah overall, I'll be fading him on Friday. The run total is astronomical -- sure, much of it comes from Toronto's offense -- but we probably won't see Baltimore shutout for the third consecutive game.
Committing to Carlos Rodon and his high price tag is definitely going to force me into a lower price tier for my SP2, but it's worth mentioning that Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea are also fine plays for their respective salaries. If I end up cycling through pitchers, I will use both, but I'll have to save money with Rodon. Enter Vladimir Gutierrez and Jon Lester. Both pitchers carry obvious risk -- Lester rarely gets enough strikeouts to make a difference while Guttierez is pitching in a hitter-friendly park against a good offense -- but they are ideal GPP targets on Friday.
Cash Game Recommendations: Carlos Rodon
GPP Recommendations: Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Vladimir Gutierrez, Jon Lester
Top Lineup Stacks
Cardinals
Rays
Orioles
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Core Studs
For the first two nights of his Major League career, Wander Franco was a minimum-priced option on DraftKings. It was absurd. It has since changed. Franco has finally entered the realm of reasonably-priced targets, and he's first on my list. The hype is real, but so is the potential. If I'm stacking the Rays, he is a must-own. I'm also leaning on Brandon Lowe, who has been hitting the ball well of late and now has four extra-base hits in his last five games.
Cedric Mullins remains a mainstay on my list of Core Studs, as I continually look to him when the Orioles have any chance at providing some offense. Such is the case on Friday, as Baltimore has scored a combined one run since Monday and is coming off back-to-back shutouts. As I mentioned in the Pitcher Strategy section, the Orioles' offense is a sneaky play against Manoah, and Mullins is the first hitter from Baltimore I will put into my lineup. I'll add more as salary permits.
I tend to look for the Cardinals as a potential stack in many of my columns, and it's because, like the Orioles, the setups tend to align with my writing schedule. Whenever that happens, I look to an expensive bat like Tommy Edman or Nolan Arenado. This time, it's Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt had been riding a four-game hitting streak until Thursday, but much of his damage was limited. In fact, he scored no more than five DraftKings points in seven of his last ten games. That might also be because the Cardinals have scored no more than two runs in eight of their last ten games. Turning this into a positive, Goldschmidt reached double-digit DraftKings points in both games in which St. Louis eclipsed that low threshold, so he's an integral part of any Cardinals stack on Friday.
Finally, while I won't be stacking them -- and with the caveat that rain is in the forecast for their game in Detroit -- the Astros cannot be ignored. They have won eleven consecutive games and are surging offensively. Carlos Correa is quietly flying up the hitting leaderboard, and his price is high for a reason -- FanDuel actually has him at an outrageous salary compared to how forgiving they normally are. If I need to pivot down a cheaper hitter from Houston, I will, but I want some exposure to the Astros' offense.
Value Plays/Punts
I'll start the Value Plays where I finished the Core Studs. That is, I am listing Abraham Toro as a possible pivot from Carlos Correa. Ideally, I won't own both of them in the same lineup, but Toro's savings from Correa are noticeable and might become a necessity. Myles Straw's price is simply laughable, considering he now has eight hits in his last four games.
Anthony Santander is a player I will consider pairing with one of my Core Studs, as the Orioles' cleanup hitter from Thursday is still struggling to get back toward last year's numbers. I'll reiterate my confidence in Baltimore to score some runs on Friday, and Santander is an inexpensive path of access to fantasy points if it comes to fruition.
Josh Naylor was one of the last players I entered into my lineup, and it's thanks to his recent stretch of hard contact. He's among the league leaders in "barrels" and "solid contact" over the last few days, but he only has one extra-base hit in the last week to show for it. I'm buying in now at a low price.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
As expected, even with shifting down the salary chart for my SP2, I was in a difficult position filling out the rest of my DraftKings lineup. None of the individual hitters even eclipsed $5,200 -- and only one cost more than $4,700 -- but there was simply too much money devoted to Carlos Rodon and another pitcher.
This is, however, why I listed so many options from the teams I plan to stack.
Normally, when building my lineup, I try to pair an expensive hitter with a cheap one from the same team. When faced with situations as we have on Friday, it might force us into an "either-or" situation.
Some of this might change, too. If the Astros are postponed because of rain, that moves Correa out of our lineups and adds a decent amount of money back to our lineups.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.
