Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article for Week 12 (6/21-6/27). I will be covering some of the hottest and coldest players in baseball over the last week. This weekly column aims to provide insight into the featured players’ success and/or struggles. We’ll discover if their recent performances have any staying power or if it was just a flash in the pan.
We’re getting into the dog days of baseball in both real life and fantasy. We’ve almost reached the All-Star break, if you can believe that. This is usually when the casual fantasy baseball player starts checking out and turning their attention towards football, but the competitive manager knows that this time is crucial. It’s important to pay attention to which players are “rising” and which ones are “falling” so we know who to target and who to avoid in any potential trades later this summer. This upcoming week should prove significant for some of the fallers mentioned below, and it should also shed light on the sustainability of some of the risers.
I try my best to focus on some lesser-known players or fringe roster-worthy guys that have been flying under the radar. To avoid redundancy, I won’t always be covering superstars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani, and Fernando Tatis Jr. They’re all amazing players. As much as I’d like to write about them every week, they’re rostered in 100% of leagues, and their awesomeness is well documented across the fantasy baseball landscape. Anyway, with all of that out of the way, let’s get into it.
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Risers
Michael Brantley (OF – HOU)
Brantley should have made this list a while ago, but better late than never. He hit a ho-hum .417/.462/.500 with two doubles and three RBI across 24 at-bats last week and is batting a ridiculous .456/.507/.647 with eight doubles one home run, 15 RBI, and a 6:6 K/BB ratio over the last 17 games. Overall, he’s slashing .349/.394/.511 with 22 doubles, four home runs, 30 RBI, and 37 runs scored over 235 at-bats. His .349 batting average currently leads all of baseball. That’s right. He is the batting average leader in the MLB. Not Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Xander Bogaerts, or Nick Castellanos but Michael Brantley.
His .352 xBA is in the 100th percentile, while his .409 xwOBA (95th) and 11% Strikeout Rate (98th) are top-ranked. Brantley has been a great hitter for a long time, but he’s always felt underrated from a fantasy perspective. Despite the fact, he isn’t walking much with a career-low 6.3% BB Rate. He’s an asset in both batting average and OBP leagues. It may be hard for him to hold the phenomenal Vlad Jr. at bay, but if anyone can prevent Vladito from taking home the AL Triple Crown, it’s Brantley.
Incredible Michael Brantley. Now hitting .500 since coming off of the IL at 31 for 62. pic.twitter.com/vPY4t7sQdY
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) June 26, 2021
Luis Castillo (SP – CIN)
Finally! Luis Castillo has made his way onto the “Risers” side after two consecutive appearances on the “Fallers” list earlier this season. He only made one start last week, but it was his best outing of the year. He allowed six hits and a pair of walks to go along with six strikeouts over seven shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park. Over his last five starts, he’s been excellent, registering a 3-2 record, 1.71 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 32:12 K/BB ratio over 32 2/3 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in 7-of-8 starts either. Contrast that with the start of the season when he surrendered four or more runs in five of his first eight outings.
The 28-year-old’s disastrous start to the season was well documented, and while he wasn’t dropped in most fantasy leagues, many managers found themselves benching him midway through May. It’s the main reason why his season numbers still look poor with a 3-10 record, 5.14 ERA, 1.476 WHIP, and 80:35 K/BB ratio over 84 innings. His 4.03 FIP and 3.90 xERA show he’s outperformed his actual stats considering how well he’s pitched over the last month. There are still some concerns with his career-low 21.4% Strikeout Rate, but his fastball velocity isn’t down–averaging 97 mph for the season–and his 27.9 CSW% on that offering is a career-best. He’s only notched one double-digit strikeout start this season, but it feels like he’s building towards another one. He’s got a tough start this week against the Padres at home, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be scared to throw him out there at this point.
Luis Castillo, Sick 89mph Changeup…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/XdQcGGTnQC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2021
Joey Gallo (OF – TEX)
Gallo put up a solid week for the Rangers, smashing four homers to go along with eight RBI and a 9:8 K/BB ratio over seven games (22 at-bats). His power surge helped the last-place Rangers finish with a 5-2 record on the week. The 27-year-old slugger is slashing .224/.385/.445 with 16 home runs, 40 RBI, and six stolen bases for the year. His .225 xBA is practically identical to his actual batting average, but he’s actually showing more plate discipline than you’d expect. His 31.1% Strikeout Rate, which ranks in the seventh percentile, is actually a career-best, and so is his 19.7% Walk Rate (99th).
He’s actually leading all of baseball with 61 walks, making it easier to stomach his 96 strikeouts, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. His OPS has gone up every month so far this season as well, starting with a .710 mark in April, followed by .808 in May and .994 in June. He’s on pace to finish with around 35 home runs and 88 RBI, which falls in line with what most analysts predicted.
Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU)
Alvarez went beast mode last week for the ‘Stros. He put up 1.238 OPS with four home runs, 11 RBI, and an 8:7 K/BB ratio over 21 at-bats. The 6’5″ slugger is slashing .302/.369/.535 with 16 doubles, 13 home runs, 49 RBI, and 47 runs scored for the season. We tend to think of Alvarez as strictly a power hitter due to his size, but he’s actually just a great hitter. His xwOBA (.382), x SLG (.541), and Barrell Rate (14.3%) all rank in the 89th percentile, while his .280 xBA is in the 83rd.
Talent has never been the question with Alvarez. It’s always been about his health. He had some serious concerns entering this year after undergoing offseason surgery on both of his knees, but that hasn’t been an issue so far (knock on wood). He was placed on the COVID-19 injured list earlier this year and missed a handful of games due to a wrist injury but has been able to stay healthy and remain in the lineup besides that. While he’s not on the same power pace as he was during his rookie campaign (27 homers), he’s got a chance to produce his best year ever if he can remain durable.
Jake Cronenworth (2B – SD)
One of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s teammates finally outshined him, at least over a seven-game span. Jake Cronenworth put together an excellent week for the Padres, slashing .391/.481/1.000 with two doubles, four home runs, nine RBI, and a 3:4 K/BB ratio over 23 at-bats. He homered in four straight games to start the week and was instrumental in helping San Diego sweep the division-rival Los Angeles Dodgers over a three-game series. After finishing second in the NL Rookie of The Year ballot last season, Cronenworth is proving that he’s no fluke. He’s rocking a .287/.358/.474 batting line to go along with 17 doubles, 12 home runs, 33 RBI, three stolen bases, and 53 runs scored over 293 at-bats.
Cronenworth’s expected stats are remarkably close to his actual batting line with a .274 xBA, .350 xwOBA, and .471 xSLG. He’s one of those players that doesn’t excel in any particular aspect of the game, but he does everything well. He’s got a solid 8.9% Barrel Rate, 35.5% Hard Hit Rate, 14% Strikeout Rate, and 8.5% Walk Rate. Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado deservedly garner most of the attention for the Padres, but Cronenworth has been the durable straw that stirs the drink. He’s tied with Kyle Seager of the Seattle Mariners for most games played this season with 79.
Fallers
Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL)
Blackmon has been a letdown this season when comparing his actual statistics with what was expected of him. This is a player that hit .314 with 42 doubles and 32 home runs just two seasons ago. We’re nearly halfway through the 2021 season, and Blackmon has just 12 doubles and four long balls. The Rockies only played five games last week, and Blackmon got a day off, so he didn’t log a ton of at-bats, but he went 2-for-14 (.143/.333/.143) with four walks. He’s performed poorly over the last 14 games, batting just .191/.328/.191 with four RBI and no extra-base hits. The recent slide has lowered his season batting line to .261/.366/.370 with four home runs and 37 RBI over 72 games.
His OBP is the only stat that isn’t a disappointment and isn’t a far cry from what we’ve come to expect from the veteran outfielder. It looks like his power has gone by the wayside; his Average Launch Angle of 7.7 degrees is the lower mark of his career, and his 5.9% Barrell Rate is the second-lowest mark after last season’s 4.9%. He got off to a very slow start, and the recent slump has dinged his batting average, but his .293 xBA ranks in the 93rd percentile. He’s also posting career-highs in Strikeout Rate (12.9%) and Walk Rate (12.2%), so it hasn’t all been bad for Blackmon. He’s not a fantasy liability by any means, but it’s safe to say he’s fallen short of expectations up to this point. They’re still a chance he could turn things around, but the lack of power is trying most fantasy managers’ patience.
Trey Mancini (1B/OF – BAL)
Mancini and the Orioles had themselves a rough week. He went 2-for-25 (.080/.080/.120) with one double and 11 strikeouts while the Orioles lost 6-of-7 games. Mancini wasn’t the only Orioles batter to struggle at the dish as the team was outscored 57-15 over the seven-game stretch. The month of June has been tough for Mancini, as he’s batting just .207/.284/.337 with three home runs and 10 RBI over 92 at-bats (24 games). It could just be a matter of fatigue as we’re heading into summer. Baltimore isn’t the only team that’s ready for a much-needed respite during the upcoming All-Star break. Mancini’s overall season numbers are still impressive, despite the recent slide. He’s batting .255/.331/.458 with 16 doubles, 14 home runs, 52 RBI, and 42 runs scored over 286 at-bats.
It wasn’t all bad for Mancini, though, as it was announced over the weekend that he would participate in the Home Run Derby at this year’s All-Star Game in Denver. This is just a rough patch for the 29-year-old slugger, and the expected stats tell us that a bounce-back is in order. He’s got a .286 xBA, .374 xwOBA, and .514 xSLG to go along with career-highs in Hard Hit Rate (42.8%) and Barrell Rate (12.6%). We can’t forget how remarkable it is that Mancini is even playing baseball right now, either. He should get back on track soon and will deservedly take home the AL Comeback Player of The Year award when it’s all said and done.
Boom Boom is heading to Denver.
Trey Mancini will participate in the 2021 Home Run Derby. pic.twitter.com/PboMS48HLr
— Orioles on MASN (@masnOrioles) June 26, 2021
Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA)
Haniger looked like a bigger “faller” before Sunday’s performance(s) against the White Sox. Chicago and Seattle had to finish Saturday’s incomplete game, which was suspended the night before due to inclement weather. They resumed play on Sunday morning, and Haniger capped off that contest with a pair of singles before going 2-for-4 with a double, a three-run homer, and two runs scored in the series finale later that afternoon. Haniger had been ice cold at the dish before Sunday, going just 6-for-35 (.171/.171/.171) with 11 strikeouts and just two RBI over the previous nine games. He’s still had an impressive season up to this point with a .255/.300/.490 batting line to go along with 16 doubles, 17 home runs, 45 RBI, and 48 runs scored over 294 at-bats. But his OPS has declined each month with a .863 mark in April, .849 in May, and .640 in June.
Much like Mancini above, fatigue could be playing a factor with Haniger. This is a player who hadn’t played in a major league game before this season since June 6, 2019. He did foul a ball off his knee earlier this month, which forced him to miss a few games, but it’s also possible that he’s hit a wall. There’s some concern with his career-low Walk Rate of 6.1%, but his .262 xBA and .341 xwOBA tell us there’s room for improvement in his actual rate stats. Haniger looked like a prime trade candidate just a few weeks ago, but that was before the Mariners won 10-0f-13 games and before he started to slump. It remains to be seen what the M’s will do with Haniger, but he should bounce back in short order.
Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B – CHC)
Wisdom has fallen off the fantasy map just as quickly as he landed on it. After his call-up on May 25, Wisdom slugged eight home runs with 12 RBI while batting .375/.432/1.025 over his first 15 games. The 16 games since then have been a different story, however. He’s hitting just .167/.239/.310 with two homers, and a 22:4 K/BB ratio over said 16 game span (42 at-bats). Last week he went an ugly 2-for-16 with a solo home run and 12 strikeouts. On the surface, his overall batting line still looks solid at .268/.333/.659 with 10 home runs, 14 RBI, and a stolen base. But we know how top-heavy those numbers are.
The fairytale looks to be over now for Wisdom, but it was fun while it lasted. He only had 78 career at-bats at the big league level before 2021, and there was nothing in his minor league track record that told us that his epic power surge was sustainable. His 40.2% Strikeout Rate is hard to look at, and now that he’s cooled off at the dish, he isn’t playing every day. It’s highly doubtful that he can rekindle that home run mojo, and his roster shares on Yahoo! have reflected that sentiment. He dropped from 58% rostered to just 29% over the weekend.
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