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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 13 (2021)

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 13 (2021)

Welcome, one and all, to another edition of the Closer Report. This week, we once again have tremendous stability at the top, aside from a slight Aroldis Chapman hiccup, while the lower half of the rankings remain populated with committee situations that are constantly evolving.

The biggest news in Closerland this week is that Hector Neris is on the verge of losing the gig. Daniel Bard has also hit another rough stretch after a month-plus of dominant pitching, while Lucas Sims and Stefan Crichton are no longer part of the closer equation for their respective teams. On the plus side of the ledger, Greg Holland, Kendall Graveman, and Brad Brach have all re-emerged as potential sources of saves. I’ll get into all of that — plus how darn good Craig Kimbrel has been — in today’s column.

But first, a quick programming note. Check out my new website www.rosrankings.com for updated rest-of-season rankings, ranking movers and shakers, and waiver wire pickups each and every week. And please tune in to the new podcast I’m doing with Lauren Auerbach, The Rest of Season Rankings podcast, available on Apple and Spotify. Finally, if you want to chat baseball (closer situations or otherwise), I’m always game! Just hit me up on Twitter @andrew_seifter.

Now here’s this week’s Closer Ranks:

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Big Movers

Philadelphia Phillies
Regular readers of this column will know that I've been warning since Day 1 that Hector Neris may not hold onto the Phillies' closer job for the entire season. And if you read it last week, you'll be well aware that Neris has been struggling with his control of late.

Well, Neris' problems have grown worse in the last week, and it's now at the point where he's on the verge of losing his job. After surrendering two runs in the ninth to the Nationals on Wednesday -- Neris' third blown save in his last five appearances -- manager Joe Girardi told reporters he'd "take an off-day [on Thursday] and think about" making a change at closer.

If such a change does occur, and it's hard to see how it doesn't occur after Girardi's comments, the obvious replacement is Jose Alvarado. Alvarado has struggled mightily with walks this season (7.76 BB/9), but he was brought in this offseason as Neris insurance, has regularly been pitching the eighth inning, and has a solid 2.70 ERA, including a cool 1.35 ERA since May 22. He'll need to get the walks under control to keep his ERA down and hold onto the job, but he could be a nice immediate source of saves and strikeouts.

Colorado Rockies
Perhaps I cursed Daniel Bard by moving him up the rankings over the last few weeks. Perhaps the challenge of pitching at Coors Field is just too big an obstacle. Or perhaps he just isn't that great.

Whatever the case may be, Bard has been running into trouble lately, much like he was at the beginning of the season. He's yet to have a total blowup outing but has allowed four earned runs over his last 5 1/3 innings and seven baserunners over his last 2 1/3 innings. The strikeouts and velocity have been down recently, too. After a tremendous stretch in May and early June, he's back up to a 4.15 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. It's hard to be confident he'll be much better than that over the rest of the season, even if he does manage to hold onto the job all year.

Random Musings

Chicago Cubs
Craig Kimbrel has been one of the very best closers of the last decade, and yet here we are witnessing what could be his best season yet at age 33. Kimbrel has posted a sub-2.00 ERA four times in his stellar career, but he's got a real shot to post a sub-1.00 ERA for the first time (not counting his 20-inning debut back in 2010). He's had a sub-1.00 WHIP five times before, but his current 0.66 WHIP is 0.01 behind 2012 for the lowest he's ever had. And while his strikeout and walk rates aren't the very best of his career, they're awfully close.

He's also got the lowest BABIP allowed of his career, so we should expect a healthy amount of regression the rest of the way. But that really goes without saying for a player who has been simply unreal through the first half of the year. Make no mistake, Kimbrel is pitching every bit as well as he did during his peak years with the Braves.

New York Yankees
Aroldis Chapman was the best closer in baseball through the season's first couple of months, but the last couple of weeks have not been kind to him. After imploding for four earned runs without retiring a batter on June 10 in Minnesota, Chapman had a few more bumpy outings over the last week, giving up three runs on five hits and five walks over his last three innings.

His most recent tough outing was exacerbated by an intentional walk and a check-swing single, so we probably shouldn't overreact here. His velocity is fine, and he's still striking batters out. Consider this a reminder that it's a long season, and most relievers will go through a rough stretch at some point, even those with as impressive credentials as Chapman's.

New York Mets
Some guys like the pressure. Some guys need it. Don't believe me? Take a look at Edwin Diaz. The guy has a 0.50 ERA over 18 innings in save situations but an ugly 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings in non-save situations. Maybe the Mets should stop bringing him in to "get work" or do mop-up duty. His fantasy managers would thank them!

Texas Rangers
Ian Kennedy was out sick on Wednesday, so the Rangers called on Joely Rodriguez to shut the door on the A's for his first career save. The 29-year old Rodriguez has had a thoroughly unremarkable Major League career, but he moves to the front of the line to eventually replace Kennedy, an obvious trade candidate. With a record of 27-47, you could be forgiven for passing entirely on the Rangers' bullpen if/when Kennedy is traded, but they have created a decent number of save opportunities so far, and Rodriguez has pitched significantly better than his 5.91 ERA would suggest.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals have been one of the more frustrating teams to predict in terms of closer usage, and that's not about to change. Greg Holland looks to have re-emerged as manager Mike Matheny's closer of choice at the moment, picking up the team's last two saves and three of the last four. But Holland's standing could be in jeopardy after suffering an ugly blown save against the Yankees on Wednesday.

Should Holland relinquish the job again, it's no sure thing that prior closer Josh Staumont will inherit it. Staumont has been very lightly used since returning from the injured list on June 6 and hasn't been particularly impressive when he has thrown. Scott Barlow and Kyle Zimmer are other options.

Seattle Mariners
Kendall Graveman earned his first save since May 16 on Tuesday, and given how great he was prior to landing on the Covid-19 list, he needs to be considered the frontrunner for saves in Seattle. The problem is that Graveman hasn't been nearly so great since returning, surrendering three runs in five innings and experiencing a noticeable drop in velocity. Even before the absence, his peripherals were not nearly as good as his surface stats. He also happens to be an obvious trade candidate, meaning his audition as the M's closer could be brief (if it even occurs).

Cincinnati Reds
Lucas Sims was never really able to separate himself from the pack as the Reds' closer, and now he'll head to the injured list with a sprained elbow, which doesn't sound like a short-term malady. Those hoping that Tejay Antone would finally get a shot in the ninth will be disappointed to learn that Amir Garrett and Brad Brach have the team's last two saves.

Garrett has an 8.06 ERA, so I suppose the more interesting name is Brach, whose 2.51 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9 don't look half bad. Then again, we're talking about a 35-year old journeyman who hadn't had a save in three years prior to Thursday. So let's pump the brakes a little! As has been the case all season, this is not a particularly appealing situation for fantasy purposes.

Arizona Diamondbacks
First, Stefan Crichton lost the closer job. Then he lost his actual job. The Diamondbacks designated Crichton for assignment on Wednesday, and it's safe to say he and his 6.04 ERA won't be latching on as closer anywhere else. That theoretically opens the door for Joakim Soria to serve as the team's closer, but does it really matter? This team has four wins since May 12!

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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