This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Jeff Bell, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Heatwaves blasting the nation and backyard BBQs remind us that a national holiday is swiftly approaching: Redraft Season. The calendar changes from a dynasty mindset to a one-year sprint, and the anticipation of kickoff brews. While dynasty players are ahead of the curve on rookies, caution comes in given their historical track record in one-year formats. However, as Justin Jefferson proved last year, rookies can carry league-swinging upside. Which players present this much upside at an undervalued cost?
Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here 
The TE6, a rookie, is undervalued? Yes. You heard that right.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Jeff Bell, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Heatwaves blasting the nation and backyard BBQs remind us that a national holiday is swiftly approaching: Redraft Season. The calendar changes from a dynasty mindset to a one-year sprint, and the anticipation of kickoff brews. While dynasty players are ahead of the curve on rookies, caution comes in given their historical track record in one-year formats. However, as Justin Jefferson proved last year, rookies can carry league-swinging upside. Which players present this much upside at an undervalued cost?
Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here
The TE6, a rookie, is undervalued? Yes. You heard that right.
It’s a tale as old as time: rookie tight ends don’t produce for fantasy rosters. The gamble on Pitts is that he won’t just see usage at tight end — the Falcons did just give up a second-round pick to acquire Hayden Hurst in 2020. He might be a sunk cost at this point, but the Falcons should mix him in as an ancillary weapon, like Russell Gage or Olamide Zaccheaus.
New head coach Arthur Smith used 12 personnel more than any team (35%) with the Titans in 2020. Hurst will be on the field, and his presence will free up Pitts to operate in wide receiver-type role. The Falcons only have one wideout on their current roster over 6-foot-1 (Tajae Sharpe). Matt Ryan has relied on Julio Jones’s 6-foot-3 frame for the past ten seasons. What’s more, the Titans offense has featured large physical receivers like A.J. Brown through Smith’s tenure.
Pitts’ role as a wideout in this offense presents a very different statistical profile. Matt Ryan’s 626 pass attempts led the league in 2020; while he is transitioning to a new offense, a stable of backs led by Mike Davis won’t command the volume that Derrick Henry saw. Also, wide receivers tend to score a lot more points than tight ends. George Kittle’s 15.6 PPG TE3 finish would have been good for WR16; Mark Andrew’s 12.2 PPG TE4 finish wouldn’t have been good enough for a top-40 finish at the position.
There isn’t a single player on the roster equipped to take over Jones’ role outside of Pitts. Marques Colston’s rookie season and tight end eligibility on multiple platforms showed that the position is a cheat code. Add in questions about several of the other tight ends above Pitts (Kittle, Andrews, T.J. Hockenson), and a TE3 finish is not unreasonable for him, even as a rookie.
Melvin Gordon is an accumulator. A career average of 4.1 yards per carry (YPC) speaks to the lack of efficiency in his game. For context, the fantasy community was down on Zach Moss following a rookie season in which he averaged 4.3 YPC. As Gordon enters his age 28 season, the game is not changing.
Enter Javonte Williams, the 35th overall pick in the 2021 draft.
The common perception is a committee backfield, and Williams’ RB35 ADP bakes in the concern. Only the upside remains — and there is plenty of it. In his previous two stops (the Vikings and Giants), offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was able to rely on bell-cow running backs like Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley. Both claimed lead roles immediately as rookies.
Williams closed his final year at North Carolina with 1,140 yards on 7.3 YPC. At this stage in their careers, Williams is simply a more dynamic back. This element is necessary for an offense helmed by Drew Lock or Teddy Bridgewater. But what if something were to change?
The Broncos have been leading rumors for both Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. With the third-most cap space in the league, they have space for either signal-caller. However, if they do end up needing some extra room, releasing Gordon would free up $3 million. Williams’s value would skyrocket, like how Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s value did after Damien Williams opted out.
I am not trying to argue about the validity of vacated targets for this play. It’s an understatement to say that the pecking order in this receiving corps is unsettled, with longtime stalwart Larry Fitzgerald retiring and the team potentially looking to move on from Andy Isabella and Christian Kirk. A.J. Green’s acquisition has brought headlines, but the actual mystery is Moore.
To unlock the possibilities for Moore in Kingsbury’s offensive scheme, flashback to his teammate at Texas Tech: Wes Welker. The Red Raiders used Welker as a multipurpose weapon; he racked up 2,050 yards in Kingsbury’s final season at quarterback between his receiving, rushing, and return yardage. Welker’s NFL slot role belies the actual utility in his game. Meanwhile, Moore is on a different level athletically.
Moore’s ADP is appealing; he will go undrafted in most 12 team redraft formats at his current level. There are few players this late in the draft who have the combination of talent and support system to emerge as weekly fantasy starters. Moore should see usage out of the backfield and may never leave the field; the upside for a role that brings visions of Percy Harvin is very much in play.
Check out our Consensus Dynasty Rankings here
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