In last week’s column, I wrote about another month of the baseball season drawing to a close. Here we are. It’s officially June, which not only means that we are two full months into the season, but also running out of excuses.
Think about the narrative that will occur during potential trade talks or fantasy managers trying to approach a specific player. Gone are the words “too early.” Replace them with “We’re already in June” and see how the tone shifts.
Unfortunately, you’ll have to do the same exercise with some of your players. The turnaround many have expected may not arrive.
After all, we’re already in June.
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Players to Buy High
Max Muncy (1B/2B/3B – LAD)
Don’t look now, but Max Muncy has forced his way into the class of baseball’s best hitters. He is fourth in Offensive WAR and second in on-base percentage. Take Muncy even more seriously if your league values OBP.
The key has always been power. Muncy hit 35 home runs in back-to-back seasons — his first two as an everyday player — before tallying 12 in the shortened 2020 campaign. His home-run-per-plate-appearances dropped in 2020 compared to the other two years, but we can easily forgive that with how he has opened 2021.
The most important factor for buying Muncy now is his hard-hit percentage. It is over 40 percent for the fourth consecutive season, while his soft-hit percentage is holding below 11 for the second straight year.
Outside of stolen bases, where he has just nine in his entire career, Muncy is also a tick below the elites in terms of batting average at a respectable — and, in today’s atmosphere, excellent — .274. Still, between his high OBP and his overall growth as a hitter, Muncy’s stock should continually rise this season.
Austin Meadows (OF – TB)
Austin Meadows appeared in the second iteration of this column, where I wrote about how quickly he proved 2020 was an outlier. Roughly seven weeks later, he is continuing to hit. As a result, the acquisition price is also rising.
Most of Meadows’ value has come from home runs (13) and a decent on-base percentage (.354), as his .241 batting average is not exactly where we would like it. That’s may not be a problem, though.
Meadows is nevertheless exhibiting what we want to see in a hitter. The 26-year-old outfielder is making soft contact at the lowest rate of his career, and he’s also hitting the ball in the air at a career-best rate.
We will have to keep an eye on Meadows’ batting average, which will be a problem if it dips lower. Until that happens, there’s a chance we are both buying low if his average increases and buying high if his power continues. I’m committing to Meadows regardless.
Casey Mize (SP – DET)
Fantasy baseball managers have a habit of overreacting. We see it all the time when it comes to prospects.
A big-name prospect will debut, have some success, but end the year with numbers far worse than anyone would like. In that moment, the young talent is discarded until a significant recovery occurs.
Sometimes that recovery never comes to fruition. Some prospects are “busts.” And some follow the path of Casey Mize.
Mize’s 4.47 xERA and 4.43 FIP are currently much higher than his 3.28 ERA, so there is some negative regression in his future. However, his velocity is up, and his walk rate is down. He has also struck out at least six batters in three consecutive starts. In his prior seven starts, Mize struck out at least six batters just once.
By the same line of reasoning arguing it is too early to consider a prospect a bust, it’s all too early to consider Mize a star. He hasn’t reached that point, but he is ascending. Every step forward may put him out of reach in a potential trade, so I’m willing to pay today’s premium instead of his future price.
Players to Sell Low
Robbie Ray (SP – TOR)
Dating back to when I first wrote this series at the beginning of the 2020 season, I have made it a point to highlight players on the verge of going in either direction. When I label someone as a “Sell-Low” candidate, others can rightfully view said player as a “Buy-Low” target. Both are valid, as we reach these specific players at a crossroads.
Robbie Ray is at such a crossroads.
I led with the fragility of this situation because it’s absolutely possible Ray improves throughout the season. It’s also possible his ERA inflates and he hurts your team. That’s why I would rather be too early cashing out than too late.
The underlying numbers support such handling of Ray. His ERA dropped to 3.57 following Tuesday’s start, the lowest mark of a four-season stretch. His 4.72 FIP, however, is the second-highest of the last seven years. The good news is that his velocity is up, but his 10.7 K/9 is his lowest since 2015.
Crossroads.
In addition to the disparity between Ray’s ERA and FIP, which I do not take lightly, his batted-ball metrics are concerning. His hard-hit percentage was the highest of his career entering Tuesday. His soft-hit percentage was the lowest, and his barrel percentage is still the second-worst since 2015 after last year.
As soon as Ray’s surface numbers catch up to what’s behind the scenes, his value will fall.
Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC)
Like Meadows in the prior section, Kyle Hendricks is a repeat from an early article. Unlike Meadows, Hendricks is on the wrong side of the equation.
Hendricks’ strikeout rate is too low to fully help a fantasy team from all angles. This is his game, though, and we have known about that his entire career.
What’s different in 2021 is that he’s allowing runs. A lot of them. And it doesn’t look it’s going to change anytime soon.
Hendricks’ 4.62 ERA is almost two full runs higher than last year’s outstanding mark of 2.88. The real trouble lies with his xERA and FIP, as they sit at 4.84 and 5.50, respectively.
It’s one thing to have an excellent pitcher with likely regression. It’s another when a pitcher with already poor numbers is expected to get worse. Hendricks currently resides in the latter territory, so I would to move on from him before the numbers worsen.
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)
I have waited as long as humanly possible to add Francisco Lindor to this list. I can wait no longer.
It’s the beginning of June, and Lindor is still hitting under .200.
The argument that his numbers will improve must be valid. He will improve. He will hit better than this. Probably much better. At one point, though, we can’t keep letting him sink our team.
The scary part of Lindor’s numbers is that he is not striking out significantly more in 2021 than he has in the last few seasons, and he actually is walking at a career-best 11.0% rate. The issue is squarely from his batted-ball numbers.
They aren’t good.
His soft-hit percentage is right around his career average, but his hard-hit percentage is at its lowest point since 2016. The same is true for his barrel percentage.
Lindor probably won’t remain completely useless, but we are now two months into the season and approaching desperation mode for teams looking to make a move. He will warrant buyers, but how aggressive should they be? If Lindor starts to hit and brings his batting average up to .225 or higher this month, will fantasy managers cover him that much more?
Move Lindor now while he still presents the allure of a rebound. Once it happens and it isn’t to the level many expect, the trade market will turn against him.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.