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Superflex! As fantasy players continue to add challenges, no game type is growing as quickly as the addition of Superflex roster eligibility. For new players, the simplest explanation is that quarterbacks gain flex eligibility. The wheels should start turning immediately — yes, quarterbacks score more than position players in most scoring settings. And yes, the production is more consistent. So yes, ideally, you are starting two quarterbacks most every week. But first, it is essential to understand what is happening with quarterbacks.
The quarterback landscape is changing in fantasy football. In 2018, Patrick Mahomes broke fantasy records by averaging 26.6 PPG, 4.7 PPG above the second-best quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger. The bar was raised again in 2019 with Lamar Jackson’s 27.8 PPG, outpacing second-place Deshaun Watson by 6.1 PPG. The top-end production has continually pushed up; the change in 2020 was the number of top quarterbacks. From 2016 to 2019, 22 PPG would earn a player QB2 honors, but in 2020, eight quarterbacks cleared that threshold.
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You may start to think about how the game has changed, as you’ve surely heard about the offensive explosion sweeping through football. Anyone with a RedZone subscription has heard about record-breaking touchdown scoring. Average scoring did go up last year — teams scored an average of 24.8 PPG in 2020, up from 22.7 in 2016. However, wide receiver and running back scoring did not move along this line. In 2016, the top 12 PPR wide receivers averaged 17.7 PPG; in 2020, they averaged 18.1. Production even fell at running back, as that number fell from 16.93 to 16.76. That downtick can be slightly explained by quarterback rushing usage, particularly in the red zone, which I touched on in this piece.
So quarterbacks are scoring more, but that increase hasn’t translated into more points for receivers and running backs. How can that be?
Before we dive too much further, let’s come back to the beginning and look at FantasyPro’s rankings to conceptualize the changes in quarterback value. In 1QB rankings, Mahomes is the first signal-caller going off the board at pick 25, followed by Josh Allen at pick 45. In Superflex, Mahomes ranks second overall, followed by Allen at fourth. There is a reason two different ranks exist.
Quickly, does this change in PPR vs. Standard formats? Conceptually it does, as the gap between quarterbacks and position players shrinks. In practice, it is unlikely it will shift the mindset of your league mates. The thirst for the position will be at the front of their minds, and the limited available production will still drive the price up on your draft day.
As soon as the “Superflex” label is on your league, quarterback will be the most important position, regardless of PPR or Standard format.
Now that we’ve laid the groundwork, how should you attack your draft?
The conventional way is to take an elite quarterback in the first round when the options are available. Once you’ve taken one signal-caller, shifting back toward a more traditional draft approach can work. In this scenario, you must read the room to determine when to take your Superflex QB2 — you’ll need a list of options you’re comfortable with as your second quarterback so that you don’t let them all slide past you. As the quarterbacks trickle off the board, the optimum play is to grab the last in your tier of acceptable players.
If you favor a balanced roster, this approach is ideal. Taking a quarterback early gives you a player with league-winning upside, and your second quarterback will usually end up as a floor option for some safe points. Under this approach, I would recommend more aggression when taking your third quarterback, opening up the possibility of streaming the position. You gain the benefit of a more stable weekly roster while sacrificing some depth elsewhere.
You’ll have to be more careful in a Superflex draft because you ratchet up the unpredictability. Teams that seem set at the position with two starters may grab a third for injury/bye week coverage. It’s virtually impossible to state the round in which you’ll need to take your second quarterback, and drafting under this style in multiple leagues will show you the volatility firsthand. With Scott Fish Bowl fever sweeping the industry, anyone who follows closely can see the disparity — in one room, quarterbacks will move quicker; in another, you can wait and end up with acceptable options.
The single most significant advantage you can gain in this format is understanding your league mate’s tendencies. Predicting runs is crucial, particularly for draft positions on the reach around ends.
Some managers may approach Superflex somewhat differently. They may build a solid traditional roster and take potentially undervalued quarterbacks to stream into favorable matchups. However, the changing dynamics of quarterback scoring require a pivot from this approach.
Time to look at “average” QB play; there may be no player more average than Kirk Cousins in terms of fantasy football quarterbacks. Between 2016 and 2020, Cousins averaged almost precisely 18 PPG. In 2016 & 2017, this was good for solid starting production (QB6 in 2016 and QB8 in 2017). The average of players above The Cousins Line was about a 2.5 point advantage. Missing out on an elite quarterback didn’t cost you.
Last year, that dynamic changed.
Kirk Cousins again hit The Cousins Line at 18.1 ppg. This year it qualified for QB12. The average of players above this line was 23.35. The effect was a seismic shift; what used to be a midline QB1 became a 5.25 point weekly disadvantage. For context, the difference between an average top 12 WR1 vs. a top 36 WR3 is 4.73 PPG (18.12 vs. 13.39). As we see more dynamic quarterback play enter the game, the upside weekly increases at the position. Mahomes and Allen cleared 30 points six times each during 2020; Cousins only cleared 27 points once.
This one seemingly small switch on lineup requirements changes the dynamics of league strategy. If your league is feeling stale, exploring this change has a great payoff. If you have not experienced this format, it can be the thing you need to grow your fantasy interests further.
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