Throughout the offseason, you will see plenty of mock drafts analyzed on this site. While their peak value isn’t realized until August, there is still something to gain from conducting them at various times before draft season.
Obviously, there will be changes between now and August, but the most significant changes of the offseason have already occurred. My first mock was in February. My second mock was in April. My third mock was in May and was the first one with the benefit of rookie landing spots. The biggest change between that mock and this one is the Julio Jones trade, but, for the most part, ADP should be relatively similar. Going forward, shifts in ADP will occur largely due to either injuries or a change in public perception.
For this mock draft using our free mock draft simulator, I decided to go with the 11 spot. This is for a 12-team, PPR league with one QB, three WRs, two RBs, one TE, and one flex. I removed kickers and defenses because there isn’t any need to include them, especially this early in the process.
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1.11 – Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
I really can’t envision any plausible scenario where I don’t draft a running back in the first round. Aaron Jones is my top-ranked running back remaining, so he’s the clear selection here, but Nick Chubb and Cam Akers are both in consideration as well. I am targeting one of them at my next selection.
2.02 – Cam Akers (RB – LAR)
With both Cam Akers and Nick Chubb available, there is no bad pick. I am certainly against consensus in going with Akers, but Akers doesn’t have Kareem Hunt to take away passing down work. Chubb is the far superior talent, but Akers will touch the ball more, see double the number of targets that Chubb will, and is far less reliant on touchdowns to produce.
3.11 – Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
I was hoping to find myself in a position here where none of the top running backs fell because that makes this pick all the more difficult, which is what we want during practice, so we’re prepared for the real thing. Rounds 3-5 are the toughest this season because I’ll be targeting wide receivers, and there are so many I like. With my next pick so close from the 11 spot, I intend to draft two of Amari Cooper, Robert Woods, Diontae Johnson, and CeeDee Lamb. Cooper is the highest WR on my board, but I would prefer not to take Cooper and Lamb. Given that the team picking 12 started out WR-WR, there is almost a 0% chance that they take two WRs. Using that logic, I can take Cooper, and then I should have my pick of Woods and Johnson.
4.02 – Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT)
Those of you that have been reading my work for a couple of years now know my affinity for Diontae Johnson. At this point in the process, my WRs 13-16 are Cooper, Johnson, Woods, and Lamb in that order. I’d be fine with any of them, but I really want Johnson and his 10 targets a game. He’s the pick.
5.11 – Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
If Diontae Johnson isn’t my top flag player for 2021, then Courtland Sutton is. I am enamored with this man’s talent, and he feels undervalued after a lost year due to a torn ACL. Sutton has the physical tools to be an elite WR1 and is one of a handful of receivers I would not be shocked to hear was the overall WR1 at some point down the line. Teddy Bridgewater provides a substantial upgrade on the talentless Drew Lock, which should only improve Sutton’s catchable target rate.
6.02 – Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)
Make no mistake about it, James Robinson is still going to be heavily involved in this offense. I just happen to buy the notion that Travis Etienne will see a significant target share. Combine that with the upside in the event he plays his way into more rushing work and the possibility that the Jaguars’ offense is better than expected, and I’ll take the shot on the rookie as my RB3.
7.11 – Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
This feels early for a “non-elite quarterback,” but Jalen Hurts has an insanely high ceiling. Given the devaluation of quarterbacks in single quarterback leagues, I’m okay with taking the risk of being wrong on Hurts, given the upside. Hurts flashed in his rushing ability in his select few starts down the stretch last season. With a full season where the team is fully committed to him as the starter, at least for one season, Hurts doesn’t have to be a good real-life quarterback to absolutely smash in fantasy.
8.02 – Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
I was tempted to pair Hurts with Dallas Goedert here, but I can’t pass up the value that is Leonard Fournette. A starting running back for an elite offense in the eighth round? Yes, please.
9.11 – Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
When shooting for upside on late-round wide receivers, Mike Williams is exactly what we look for. He’s the clear WR2 on the Chargers and tethered to an ascending young quarterback playing behind a bolstered offensive line.
10.02 – Jamaal Williams (RB – DET)
I am doubling down on Williams’s here, with Jamaal following Mike. I am supremely confident that Jamaal Williams will be way more involved than D’Andre Swift enthusiasts want to believe. This is not to say I am anti-Swift – far from it – I just expect Williams to see enough work for standalone RB3 value. He’s my RB5.
11.11 – John Brown (WR – LV)
With three picks left, I need a wide receiver, a tight end, and a miscellaneous player. I am resigned to streaming tight ends, so I will wait until I am forced to take one. I’m shooting for upside here at wide receiver, and, surprisingly, I find myself gravitating toward an older player – John Brown. Outside of Darren Waller, there’s no clear target in Las Vegas. Henry Ruggs is not good. Bryan Edwards probably isn’t either. Willie Snead and Hunter Renfrow are just rotational WR4/5s. Brown should be second on this team in targets.
12.02 – Jalen Reagor (WR – PHI)
This is a weird spot in the draft because there are a lot of wide receivers worth taking a shot on, but a single one doesn’t really stand out. Jalen Reagor, Mecole Hardman, Nelson Agholor, Denzel Mims, Parris Campbell, Rashod Bateman, and Rondale Moore all have plausible upside. It’s really just dealer’s choice on this one. I went with Reagor because I can pair him with Hurts in the event he pans out, bolstering the overall weekly ceiling of my team.
13.11 – Anthony Firkser (TE – TEN)
I needed a tight end. Anthony Firkser’s target share undoubtedly took a hit with the acquisition of Julio Jones, but Firkser is still the best bet to be third on the Titans in targets. The third option on a low volume passing attack isn’t super appealing, but “not super appealing” is a good description of just about every tight end beyond the top five.
Final Roster
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, Travis Etienne, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams
WR: Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, John Brown, Jalen Reagor
TE: Anthony Firkser
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @jasonkatz13.
