MLB Daily Fantasy Primer: Saturday (5/15)

It’s a robust 10-game slate, offering lots of roster construction options. My leaning is toward offense-heavy builds, despite the presence of a few top-shelf pitchers.

Check out today’s MLB Grand Slam contest at FanDuel

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Strategy

I’m looking to mix and match from the middle tier. The hitting is priced up in some favorable spots I intend on attacking. On the plus side, I love Ian Anderson and Adam Wainwright in particular tonight. Domingo German is a viable GPP arm. Ditto for Chris Paddack.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Ian Anderson (ATL) at MIL
Anderson hasn’t pitched like the unstoppable force he appeared to be, bursting on the scene last year. It would be unfair to label his sophomore season a disappointment, though. In seven starts spanning 39.0 innings, he’s recorded a 3.46 ERA, 3.76 SIERA, 1.26 WHIP, 26.4 K%, and 28.8 CSW%.

Betting Pros consensus line lists the Braves as -145 favorites, and the matchup with the Brewers is a plus. According to FanGraphs, the Brewers rank dead last in wRC+ (75) and have punched out in 26.7% of their plate appearances. Anderson’s my favorite pitcher in all game types on both sites tonight.

Adam Wainwright (STL) at SD
Wainwright is nipping at Anderson’s heel for my top pitcher. On DraftKings, I’ll gladly pair them. The COVID-19 injured list is filled with key Padres, namely Fernando Tatis Jr, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and Jurickson Profar. A deplete lineup is one I’ll attack with the resurgent Waino.

This year he’s pitched at a high level, sporting 3.80 ERA, 3.81 SIERA, 1.22 WHIP, 23.5 K%, and 31.1 CSW% in seven starts totaling 42.2 innings. Even before accounting for San Diego’s integral lineup absences, they rank tied for 15th in wRC+ (94) against righties. The Red Birds are actually small underdogs at +120, but the game’s over/under of only 7.0 runs screams to target the pitchers.

GPP Recommendations:

Domingo German (NYY) at BAL
German gets his second crack at the Orioles this year. He cruised in Baltimore on April 28, holding the Orioles scoreless on three hits, one walk, and six strikeouts in seven innings. The second look could be advantageous for Baltimore’s hitters, creating some risk. The hitter-friendly park factors at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, too.

However, the risk is worth absorbing with German pitching well. He’s made three quality starts in his last four, and the outlier was an adequate turn in which he allowed three runs on four hits, one walk, and six strikeouts in five innings against a talented Houston Astros offense.

The Yankees are big favorites at -174 tonight. That’s another check in the pros column for using German. He’s an upside play at a reasonable salary, making him appealing in GPPs.

Chris Paddack (SD) vs. STL
Paddack’s salary is tiny on FanDuel. Rostering him basically allows you to load up on an endless supply of superstar hitters. On DraftKings, he’s priced fairly. Having said that, I like him there a great deal, too.

He’s opposing Waino. Do you remember the game’s over/under of 7.0 runs I cited above? That applies for Paddack as well, and he’s actually on the favored team, with the Padres -130. Paddack hasn’t been able to recapture his brilliance from his 2019 rookie season since then, but he’s flashed at times.

Further, he has a plus matchup tonight. The Cardinals rank tied for 25th in wRC+ (86) against right-handed pitchers this year. Paddack’s inconsistency removes him from cash game consideration, but it’s worth rolling the dice on in GPPs.

Top Lineup Stacks

• Road (TD Ballpark)
• Value: Low(DK)/Medium(FD)
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/PHI -125

We only have a few more chances to take advantage of the luscious hitting conditions at TD Ballpark, and I’m all over it with the Phillies tonight. DraftKings projects them to face southpaw Anthony Kay. The 26-year-old pitcher has totaled 44.2 innings pitched in the majors across 15 relief appearances and four starts dating back to 2019, getting knocked around for a 6.45 ERA.

• Road (Coors Field)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: GPP
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/CIN -165

Offensive fireworks are the norm at Coors Field, and the betting numbers above speak to bettors’ expectations tonight. Jhoulys Chacin is the starter tonight against the Reds, and he’s no longer a big-league caliber starter. In 120.2 innings pitched since 2019, he’s been drilled for a 6.04 ERA, 5.06 SIERA, and 2.16 HR/9. There’s a reason the Reds’ hitters are priced up, and it’s not only the Coors Field factor. I list them as a GPP stack above because of the concessions at pitcher and punting other positions needed to stack them fully.

• Road (Chase Field)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: GPP
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/WAS -125

The Nationals rank a lowly 27th in wRC+ (83) against righties in 2021. Beyond Trea Turner and Juan Soto, the hitters are a ho-hum collection. This stack is about the matchup, though. Seth Frankoff is a 32-year-old righty with only 4.2 innings of major-league experience. He was a minor-league journeyman before a successful two-year stint in KBO from 2018-2019. He pitched at a mediocre level in the upper-minors in the states before traveling abroad, and it wasn’t as if he lit the world on fire in the KBO. I’m skeptical of his ability to get big-league hitters out. The Nats are worth some GPP bullets.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

• Jess Winker is my favorite option from Coors Field. He’ll get the park-factors boost, and he’s rocked righties for a .400 OBP, .230 ISO, and 146 wRC+ since 2018.
• In 397 plate appearances against lefties since 2018, Hoskins has ripped lefties for a .414 OBP, .239 ISO, and 148 wRC+. He’ll also be treated to TD Ballpark’s mouthwatering park factors, including 1.382 for runs and 1.439 for homes, per ESPN.
• Anderson has a great lineup spot, owning the leadoff gig. He also has outstanding numbers against lefties since 2018, including a .219 ISO and 141 wRC+. Anderson bolsters his upside with wheels, stealing six bases in eight attempts this year.

• Kelenic is one of MLB’s top prospects, yet he’s priced like a scrub at the minimum salary on DraftKings and $200 above the minimum on FanDuel. He also demonstrated his hitting prowess in a big way last night, smacking a homer, two doubles, scoring two runs, and driving in three. I’m treating him like a bingo square and enjoying the cap relief for a player with his offensive potential.
• Bohm is struggling with the stick this year, but the right-handed hitter has a .239 ISO and 127 wRC+ in 82 plate appearances against lefties since debuting last year.
• Segura’s not a value on DraftKings. He’s a bargain on FanDuel, though. The two-hole hitter has a .353 OBP, .188 ISO, and 122 wRC+ against lefties since 2018.
• I’ll just pay up for Segura on FanDuel, but Madrigal’s a lineup-spot-fueled punt on DraftKings. He’s been elevated to the second spot in the order against lefties of late.

Saturday’s Hitter Strategy

I’m not as stack happy as usual. The Phillies are my favorite stack, as they blend high-upside with affordability. I’ll get some exposure to Coors Field, namely rostering Winker. To squeeze in some extra boppers, I’ll also look to Kelenic and Segura — on FanDuel — and Madrigal — on DraftKings — as punts.

Create MLB DFS lineups with our Lineup Optimizer Tool

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.